Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores where 3 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points.

• Phil Foden – 1 Assist – 6 Points
• Nico Williams – 1 Clean Sheet – 6 Points
• Gabriel Martinelli – 1 Goal, 2 Bonus – 9 Points

That makes it 48/114 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.

In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Thursday 2^nd January, 2025. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Yoane Wissa – Brentford – 6.2 Forward – 9.2 % TSB

• Brenford face rock bottom Southampton this Gameweek and a team who concede the most amount of Shots in the League, 3^rd most Shots in the Box, 2^nd most Shots on Target. Add to the fact that Southampton concede 55 % of their Chances through the Center of the pitch.
• Brentford are an attacking team who have scored the 5^th most Goals in the League. Only Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal & Chelsea have outscored them so far. They have even scored 1 more goal than Man City and with half of their defence injured, they should continue playing their attacking style of football to pick up points in the League.
• Wissa could be a nice replacement if you are offloading Cunha this Gameweek. He has had 8 Goals and 2 Assists so far this season. His stats make for good reading too with 15 Shots on Target, 23 Shots in the Box and 12 Big Chances. Wissa tends to do really well against the weaker opposition and this game could be another haul for Wissa.

Top Forwards(Less than 8.5 million) for xG/90 this season:

• Jackson- 0.56
• Wissa- 0.51
• Solanke- 0.49
• Havertz- 0.47
• Raul- 0.45

Further Read: FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Ezri Konsa – Aston Villa – 4.4 Defender – 7 % TSB

• Villa have an appealing run of 5 easy games in the next 6 Gameweeks where they face Leicester, Everton, West Ham, Wolves and Ipswich. Besides West Ham, 4 of these teams lie in the Bottom 5 for Shots on Target, Shots in the Box and xG. This could be a perfect time to take a punt on a nailed Villa defender such as Konsa.
• Leicester are also top for Shots conceded from Set pieces in the League, something which Konsa can take advantage of. Konsa has already scored once from a corner this season and does well for Bonus whenever Villa keep a clean sheet. This could be a nice week to get him into your teams for the next half a dozen Gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis

Morgan Gibbs White – Nottingham Forest –  6.4 Midfielder – 3.2 % TSB

• Gibbs White is the creative linchpin of a Forest side who are punching above their weight this season and are curretntly sitting at 3^rd in the League table.  Forest now face a Wolves side who have conceded the most Goals in the League so far (42).  They also rank in the Bootom 6 for Shots, Shots in the Box and Shots on Target in the League.

Top Midfielders for Expected Assists since GW15:

• Wolves also concede most of their Big Chances through the Center of the pitch and that is where Gibbs White operates (behind Chris Wood). Wolves are the 3^rd worst for Headed Chances and 4^th worst for Shots conceded from Set pieces and we all know who takes corners and set pieces for Forest (who love to score goals from Set pieces)
• Gibbs White is a Bonus Magnet & has earned Bonus points from just a single attacking return in many Gameweeks. He is also in red hot form with just 1 Blank in the last 5 Gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips – Wood, Jackson, TAA Thoughts & Fixture analysis

Raul Jimenez – Fulham – 5.5 Forward– 7.2 % TSB

• Fulham begin a nice 3 week fixture run where they face Ipswich, West Ham and Leicester, teams which are all leaking goals at the moment.  Jimenez should start these 3 Games and could add to his 6 Goals and 2 Assists this season.
• Ipswich rank in the Bottom 5 for Shots, Shots in the Box and Shots on Target conceded and in the bottom 2 for Big Chances and xGC conceded. He could be a very cheap replacement if you are trying to offload the suspended Cunha from your FPL teams. Ipswich concede more than half their Big Chances from the Center of the pitch as well.

Defense Ranks of Fulham’s Next 3 Opponents:

	xGC	Big Chances Conceded	Goals Conceded
GW20- Ipswich	19th	19th	15th
GW21- West Ham	17th	18th	16th
GW22- Leicester	18th	17th	19th

• Raul has great stats with 18 Shots on Target, 37 Shots in the Box and 11 Big Chances. He has also created 5 Big Chances and played 10 Key passes for his teammates. He is a Bonus Point Monster and nearly always picks up maximum Bonus whenever he scores.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Timothy Castagne – Fulham – 4.2 Defender – 1.6 % TSB

• Since Tete got sidelined with inury, Castagne has cemented his spot back in the Fulham team and has already contributed a Clean Sheet and an Assist in 3 starts. Castagne is now playing as a Wing Bick with Fulham switching to a 3 at the back formation and only 3 Defenders can beat his tally of 9 Penalty Box Touches over the last 3 Gameweeks.
• Fulham begin a nice 3 week fixture run where they face Ipswich, West Ham and Leicester, out of which Ipswich & Leicester rank in the Bottom 3 for Shots, Shots in the Box and Shots on Target. This could mean some Clean Sheets could be up for grabs in the future and combined with his attacking potential and meagre price tag, he could be great buy this Gameweek.

Attack Ranks of Fulham’s Next 3 Opponents:

	xG/90	Big Chances/90	Goals/90
GW20- Ipswich	20th	19th	18th
GW21- West Ham	10th	15th	15th
GW22- Leicester	17th	16th	16th

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FPL GW20 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Leon Bailey – Aston Villa – 6.2 Midfielder – 0.8 % TSB

• Bailey has had a disappointing season so far with only 2 Assists to show for in 16 League Games. He has been overshadowed by Rogers up till now but could take up the bulk of the creativity in Rogers’ absence against a leaky Leicester team who have got worse since Rudd’s appointment.
• Leicester are 3^rd worst for xGC, Shots and Shots on Target conceded, worst for Shots in the Box conceded and 4^th worst for Big Chances conceded. They are also tied for the most Goals conceded so far and this fixture could bring Bailey back to form.

Bailey Stats vs Brighton in GW19:

• Minutes played– 76
• Shots- 7
• xG- 0.37
• Chances Created– 3
• xA- 0.35

Matchup alert:

Leicester City have an weakness on their left side which provides a good matchup if you are looking for a short term punt in Bailey. Leicester City have conceded 31 chances from their left flank over the last 6 matches- Highest among all the Teams in the league during this time. Right wingers playing vs Leicester have also had success in those games.

Right-Wingers vs Leicester in Last 4 matches:

• GW19- Foden- Assist, 0.4 xGI, 6 points
• GW18- Salah- Goal, 1.0 xGI, 9 Points
• GW17- Guedes- Goal, Assist. 0.1 xGI, 13 Points
• GW16- Murphy- 2 Goals, 0.6 xGI, 13 Points

That’s it for Gameweek 20. We will be back with 6 More Differentials next Gameweek where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 20.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20:

Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell 
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW20 Tips and Dilemmas Answered- Wood, Jackson, Trent and Fixtures to Target
FPL GW20 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 20 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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