Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks & Metrics blog. Salah, who topped our captaincy metrics last week, returned with a 32-point haul vs West Ham, becoming the fastest player to hit 200 FPL points in the FPL’s history. This week, there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures, including Isak, Palmer, Salah, Watkins, and Haaland, which makes captaincy interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics for FPL GW20.
This season the metrics has a 13/19 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 + 18 + 32 = 344 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW20 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW20 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah is on top of the captaincy poll for GW20 with a whopping 74% of the votes and will be up against Man United at Old Trafford on Sunday. King Mo has blanked only twice so far this season and has registered 12 double-digit hauls already. Haaland who was back amongst the goals in GW19 vs Leicester is 2nd in the captaincy poll ahead of a juicy game against West Ham at home this week.
Isak who is in red-hot form with six goals and two assists in the last six games is 3rd in the captaincy poll this week and will be up against a defensively weak Spurs side ravaged by injuries. Watkins is 4th with a starting spot guaranteed following Duran’s three-game suspension. Palmer makes it to the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 20 Captain picks
Salah comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 7.04 and 30 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He has also had 10 Big Chances during this run, the highest amongst all players.
Isak is 2nd with an xG of 5.32 and is also top for chances created(19) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Palmer takes the third spot in the underlying numbers table with 4.29 xG in the last six games. He’s also created an impressive 18 chances over the previous six games & has had 12 goal attempts in the box.
Haaland is only 4th with an xG of 2.80 in the last six games. Man City’s poor form is seen in Haaland’s number who consistently used to have an xG of close to 0.8-1.0 per game.
Watkins is only 5th but an xG of 2.77 isn’t bad at all considering his minutes has not been great in the last six games(Only 258 minutes). He’s guaranteed to start vs Leicester in GW20 following Duran’s three-game suspension.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool top the Team Underlying Data with 18.39 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams by a huge margin. The Reds have also had 90 shots inside the box and 33 big chances during the period.
Chelsea are 2nd in the table with an xG of 14.78, the Blues are second for shots inside the box(80) & big chances(29).
Newcastle rank 3rd for xG amongst the five teams with the Geordies registering 14.37 xG in the six games. They have also had a healthy 75 shots inside the box and 25 big chances.
Man City are 4th with an xG of only 9.20 & they have had 15 big chances & only 57 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Aston Villa rank fifth for Expected Goals in the last six games with 8.93 xG, 16 Big Chances, and 59 Shots inside the box.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW20
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a whopping 90% odds of at least 1 goal and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW20 vs Man United(H). The odds are not a huge surprise as Man United have not been great under Ruben Amorim and Liverpool have scored fun in their recent PL games vs Man United.
Man City are second & have an 87% odds of at least 1 goal and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals against the Hammers in GW20.
Aston Villa are 3rd and have an 88% odds of at least 1 goal and 48% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Leicester(H) in GW20.
Newcastle are 4th and have an 85% odds of at least 1 goal and 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Spurs(A) in GW20.
Chelsea are last with 82% odds of at least 1 goal and 31% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Palace(A)
Further Read: Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is top for projections this week with 73% anytime returns & an 8.6 points projection in FPL GW20 vs Man United at Anfield.
Haaland is 2nd for projection this week with 70% anytime returns & a 7.6 points projection in FPL GW20 against West Ham(H).
Watkins is 3rd for projection this week with 64% anytime returns & a 6.8 points projection against the Foxes.
Palmer has an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 7.1 in GW20 vs Crystal Palace & is also ranked 3rd in the table.
Isak is last with a 62% anytime return & a 6.4 points projection in GW20 vs Spurs(A).
Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips – Wood, Jackson, TAA Thoughts & Fixture Analysis
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 20 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of four, the least possible CRF in our captaincy metrics. There is a huge gap between Salah & Haaland with the Man City forward taking the 2nd spot with a CRF of 12. Palmer is 3rd with a CRF of 13, and Isak is 4th with a CRF of 14. Watkins is last in the captaincy metrics for GW20 with a CRF of 16.
Weather Update:
There’s a weather warning that could affect the Liverpool vs Man United game on Sunday!
The 4:30 pm kickoff could be affected by deteriorating conditions, as forecasts suggest outbreaks of rain spreading northeastwards will be preceded by snow.
There’s a meeting scheduled for 9 AM on Sunday to discuss the possibility of canceling the fixture via Benny Blanco on Twitter/X
Make sure to have your Vice Captain set properly if in case the game is canceled!!!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20:
Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW20 Tips and Dilemmas Answered- Wood, Jackson, Trent and Fixtures to Target
FPL GW20 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis
Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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