FPL GW23 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW23 Scout Picks blog! The first double gameweek of the season is almost upon us (Liverpool + Everton double in GW24), but we still have one more GW to go before then… With Chelsea and City playing against each other, and Forest and Bournemouth also facing off, we’ve had to be somewhat creative with this weeks AAFPL Scout Picks Team. Unfortunately, our team managed just 49 points in GW22, meaning that we’ve suffered another loss against the Official FPL Scout (due to their selection of Foden), we’re still in the lead though, with the score currently 13-9 to us…

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	63	51	95	65	73	71	77	49	13
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	98	64	78	46	89	59	82	68	78	59	9

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW23.

Link to all our FPL GW23 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW23 Fixtures

FPL GW23 Scout Picks

FPL GW23 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Raya (5.6m) is the third-highest-scoring keeper in the game, having amassed 81 points this season. The majority of his hauls came in the first few GWs of the season, with the Spaniard bagging three hauls of 8+ points in the first four matches of the premier league calendar. As Arsenal have faltered, so too has Raya, but Arteta’s number one remains by far the most popular goalie this season and is (at the time of writing) owned by 28.6% of managers.

Often with defenders and goalkeepers, it’s far easier, and normally higher scoring, to ‘set and forget’ rather than trying to rotate, due to how difficult it is for defenders to get points. This strategy is part of the reason we’ve gone for Raya this week. The other factor that of course plays a part is the fixture; this weekend Arsenal face Wolves.

When these two sides played each other earlier this season, Raya managed a massive 8 points, thanks in large part to this clean sheet Arsenal kept. What’s interesting about that game, is that Arsenal limited Wolves to just 0.58xG – which is their second worst xG total in a single game this season. Wolves are second from bottom when it comes to xG this season, only ahead of Everton, whereas their actual goal-scoring numbers are far superior – they’ve scored 32 (13th) from 24.6xG (19th), making them the biggest xG over performers in the league by a long way. We’ve seen their luck begin to turn in recent games, as their xG over their last 3 premier league matches is around 4.5xG, but they’ve only managed one goal…

They’re in poor form in terms of results and goal scoring, while Arsenal are in need of a positive result after their disappointing draw to Villa in GW22, so we’re backing Raya in GW23!

Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis

FPL GW23 Scout Picks – Defenders

Another 3-back this week, with the familiar faces of Hall (5.1m), TAA (7.2m) and Robinson (5.1m) completing our defensive unit for FPL GW23!

In spite of their 3-2 win against Forest, which was in reality a fairly flattering scoreline for the Saints, Juric’s side remain a team to target. They face Newcastle this weekend, thus we’ve included Hall in our backline. The Ex-Chelsea man has managed 52 points in the last 7 GWs, including 2 double-digit hauls and five occasions where he scored 5 points or more. Newcastle were in fantastic form, a 6-game win streak in which they conceded one and scored 18, until they got ‘Iriola-ed’ in GW22, losing 1-4 to the Cherries. Bournemouth are a great side, and are in impervious form themselves so let us not be perturbed – Hall and the gang are ‘must haves’ for this weekend’s fixture against the Saints.

But why Hall? Why not another Newcastle defender? Well, Hall is by far Newcastle’s most creative full-back, averaging 0.18xA/90 and 1.44 key passes per 90. He is also pretty crucial to Newcastle’s build-up, meaning that his minutes are secure, as he averages the 3rd most passes into the final third in the squad, behind only Schar and Bruno G. It should be highlighted that he is currently over performing his expected points (according to fantasy football hub), with his current points per game sitting at just over 6, and his expected points per game at just under 4.

Nottingham Forest’s first and second goals both came down the left-hand side (Hall’s flank) in their game against Southampton in GW22. Sugawara, who tends to play at RWB for the Saints, is known for his attacking play, but not so much for his defensive capabilities – the Japanese international has committed 3 errors leading to shots already this season, Hall and Gordon will be looking to test him in GW23…

Next up is ‘the scouser in our team’ Trent John Alexander-Arnold. The Liverpudlian is the 2nd highest-scoring defender in the game, despite having missed significant stretches of the season through injury. He, and the rest of his Liverpool compatriots will be on everyone’s radar this weekend, due to a favourable fixture against Ipswich in GW23, and then the sacred double in GW24!

Trent scored the most points of any defender (11) and was in the top 10 players for points scored overall in GW22. He’s tied with Hall and RAN for 2nd place in the defenders assist charts and has 8 clean sheets so far this season. His Liverpool side are top of the table for both goals scored (50) and clean sheets (9).

As mentioned, Trent faces Ipswich this week, a side that shipped 6 goals against City in GW22. The Tractor boys were able to register just 0.8xG and 8 shots (4 on target) against the champions last weekend, which makes for good reading for Slot, whose team has a far superior defensive record. The Reds managed to keep a clean sheet away at Portman Road earlier this season, so it would probably be one of the biggest upsets of the season should they concede, or worse lose, to Ipswich in GW23 – we doubt that will happen (although stranger things have happened!) so we’re backing Trent.

Finally, we have Robinson. With 9 assists so far this campaign it’s not out of the realms of possibility that he could break the assist record in a single season for a defender (13). While he did not deliver an assist for his many owners in GW22, he did manage to keep a CS, taking home 8 points for the 26.8% of managers who own him. In GW23 he’ll be facing ‘the worst Manchester United side in history’…

Jokes aside, this United team are not great, and while they may have improved defensively under Amorim, they most certainly have got worse in attack. Since Amorim’s appointment, United have scored the 6th fewest goals in the league (15 goals since November 24th), with the likes of Wolves, Palace, and Forest all ahead of them in that metric. Fulham on the other hand have the third-best expected goals against in the league, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal, it’s their goalkeeping that has been letting them down thus far, with Fulham the second biggest xGA underperformer in the league (behind Wolves). Great defense (in theory), great fixture, great form, assist machine – Robinson is a must-have!

Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis

FPL GW23 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Salah (13.7m), Gordon (7.7m), Mbeumo (7.8m), and Rogers (5.5m) make up our midfield for this round of fixtures…

Salah has the best attacking numbers in the league, and is facing an Ipswich side who are in poor form and sit close to the bottom of the league for most attacking and defensive numbers. He’s a no-brainer for the team and a great choice for captaincy. While the appeal of Isak is undeniable considering the form he’s in, we’re goingwith Salah due to his season-wide numbers and Ipswich’s recent result against City.

Next up is Gordon. Newcastle, as mentioned, face Southampton in GW23, which is a fantastic fixture from both an attacking and defensive perspective. Southampton have conceded the 2nd most goals in the league (the most since the start of December). They’ve conceded the most expected goals against by a long way too. In their last 3 league games they’ve conceded 11 goals and over 10xG, with their heaviest recent defeat coming in GW20 at home against Brentford.

Gordon himself has begun to come into form, after a slow start to the season, managing 4 goal contributions in his last 5 premier league games. His underlying numbers are also promising, with the Englishman averaging 0.43xG/90 and 0.22xA/90. Since the turn of the year, his xG has been up at 0.64, the highest of any Newcastle starter, higher even than Isak’s!

Next up is Mbeumo, who is having the season of his life! Mbeumo has scored back-to-back two-pointers in FPL, which is not ideal, but those came against Manchester City and Liverpool, so it’s nothing to worry about. His 0.32xG/90 and 0.29xA/90 are exceptional, and he is third amongst midfielders in FPL for points scored behind only Salah and Palmer!

This weekend Brentford face Palace, a battle between Bees and Eagles in which our money is (figuratively) on the Bees! While Palace’s defensive record is much improved since the start of December, they still conceded far too many chances against Leicester and Chelsea in GW20 and GW21. They did keep West Ham fairly quiet, but the Hammers are still in a period of transition, so I would not put this solely down to Palace’s defense.

When Brentford faced Palace earlier this season Frank’s side came away with a 2-1 victory, with Mbeumo scoring once. Palace are in a similar situation now as they were at that point in time, with massive changes in their defensive personnel putting their defensive solidity of recent games at risk.

Finally, we have Morgan Rogers, the so-called (by me) ‘Quasi-Essential Budget-Enabler’. He’s been absent from our AAFPL Scout teams for a while now, but makes a long-awaited return to cover Villa’s attractive fixture against the aforementioned West Ham United. In his last 5 starts in the league, Rogers has delivered 5 goal involvements (2 goals, 3 assists). With an excellent fixture run over the next 3 GWs he should be on every manager’s radar!

His 0.45xGI/90 is exceptional for a player at his price point, particularly as he’s been overperforming his xG so far this season – delivering 6 goals and 4 assists for the lucky (or arguably clever) 22.6% of managers that own him. It’s hard to predict exactly how West Ham will play, and/or how good they are under their new manager, but if their recent performance against Palace was anything to go by, Villa should be fine.

Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis

FPL GW23 Scout Picks – Forwards

Isak (9.5m) was one of the first names on the teamsheet this week, due to his recent form and his FPL GW23 Fixture. Backing up our pick is Fantasy Football Hub’s predicted points tool, which has Isak down as the highest-scoring forward in FPL GW23!

At 59.0% ownership, it’s hard to stomach going without him, especially considering the Magpies face one of the worst sides in Premier League history (sorry Southampton fans)… Newcastle’s 1-4 loss to Bournemouth in GW22 ended Isak’s 8-game scoring run, in which he bagged a huge 11 goals and 3 assists. Honestly, this pick needs very little justification so I’m just going to move on to the next player!

Mateta (7.3m) is an enigma, as he scores goals without taking very many shots. Players like Isak, Haaland and Salah tend to average between 3 and 4 shots per 90 in the premier league, whereas Mateta is currently averaging just 2.3 per 90. This is not an outlier for Mateta however – I wrote an article about him in pre-season, in which I detailed why managers should be cautious in selecting the Frenchman due to his abnormal stats. His shots per 90 have gone up since then (at the start of the season it was around 1.74), he is still far below the league average and yet, continues to score…

With 4 goals in his last 3 Premier League games, it’s hard to ignore the form he’s in, regardless of my concerns. The French international has averaged 0.7xG/90 over his last 5 games in the league, scoring 4 goals in that time and providing his faithful FPL managers with 33 points! He and Palace are in fine form at the moment, and they’re facing a Brentford side who have conceded 4 goals in their last 2 games.

Finally, we have Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo (7.4m). It was essential to include a Liverpool triple-up this week, due to their favourable fixture against Ipswich. That being said, there has been much discourse in recent weeks as to the best Liverpool asset behind TAA and Salah, so let me take you through the thinking behind Gakpo…

Gakpo has been involved in 32 percent of the Reds’ goals when selected since Gameweek 12, a far higher proportion than Luis Diaz, who is the alternative attacking option. And while Nunez was a consideration for a brief moment (due to his stunning cameo against Brentford), he was cast aside due to him playing 90 minutes in the Champions League in mid-week (and also because we’ve all been burnt by him before)!

Gakpo was rested against Lille, he didn’t play a single minute, which would suggest that he is in pole position to start on the left wing for Liverpool in GW23. Diaz may start up front, which some managers may find appealing, but in recent weeks when he has played in that position he has been far less effective, and his numbers are down from when he plays on the left. Thus, due to minutes security, form, and underlying numbers (and because it’s a bit of a punt!) we’ve gone for Gakpo!

Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis

Full GW23 Scout Selection Team

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW23:

2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
Ultimate FPL Assistant Manager Chip Guide: Rules, Tips & More
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
FPL GW23 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW23 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 23 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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