Top FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Are you looking to break away from the template with lower-owned punts and catch up ranks in your mini-leagues? Don’t worry we have got you covered with some spicy punts. In this article, we will be highlighting the Top FPL GW19 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) and Ultra-Differential Pick(<1% TSB) ahead of the GW19 deadline based on Stats and upcoming fixtures.

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores where 2 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points.

• Jarrod Bowen – 1 Goal – 8 Points
• Jacob Murphy – 1 Assist – 6 Points

That makes it 45/108 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.

In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Saturday 28th December, 2024. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW19 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW19 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Daniel Muñoz vs Southampton(H), £4.7m, TSB: 3.2%

Daniel Munoz is essentially an attacker listed as a Defender. Over the last 8 matches, Munoz has taken 12 Shots including 6 Big Chances and 2.8 xGI– which are impressive numbers even for an attacker. He has 2 goals and 1 assist to show for during this time but could have been easily more.

Munoz Attack Rank among Defenders since GW10(Despite missing a game through suspension):

• Shots on Target– 1st
• Shots inside the box– 2nd
• Big Chances- 1st
• xG- 1st
• Goal Involvements– Joint 2nd

Top Defenders for xG since GW10:

To put things into context, Munoz xG of 2.6 since GW10 is better than the likes of Chris Wood, Saka, Duran, Son, Foden, Pedro, Amad and Cunha.

Palace are also a much improved defensive side in recent weeks. Over the last 6 Gameweeks- Palace have conceded the 5th Least xGC, 6th Least for Big Chances conceded.

Southampton have scored 11 goals from 18 games this season- Comfortably the lowest among all the teams in the league this season. They have also scored only one goal from the last 5 games which does not inspire confidence at all. Don’t be surprised if there is a big haul from Munoz in GW19- Clean sheet along with an attacking return.

Ismaïla Sarr vs Southampton(H), £5.8m, TSB: 3.0%

Sarr has been in brilliant form in recent weeks with 4 goals, 2 assists from the last 9 matches– Emerging as one of the stand out Budget midfielders in the game. During this time, Sarr has had 22 Shots, 8 Big Chances and 5 Big Chances created. His xGI of 4.8 was only bettered by Salah, Palmer and Bruno Fernandes among Midfielders- All of them Premiums and much expensive than him.

Top Midfielders less than £8.3 million for Expected Goal Involvement since GW10:

Palace also have a great run of fixtures making Sarr a great budget pick in the game.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 19 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Phil Foden vs Leicester City(A), £9.2m, TSB: 5.3%

• Foden got his 1^st goal against Aston Villa last weekend and will now look to kick on for City’s good run against leaky defences Leicester, West Ham, Brentford and Ipswich. Surely City get back to form against these weak defensive teams.
• Leicester rank worst for Shots in the Box, 2^nd worst for Goals conceded, 3^rd worst for Shots, Shots on Target, Big Chances and xGC. Since Ruud took over, Leicester have conceded the most Shots in the last 4 Gameweeks and look much more open than they did under Steve Cooper.

Foden looks to be the main outlet for City with KDB not playing too many minutes. His stats are okay but not spectacular. He has had 32 Shots, 14 Shots in the Box, 7 Shots on  Target and 2 Big Chances. He has played 27 key passes and created 5 Big Chances. He so far has only 1 Goal and 1 Assist but surely will profit from this run of games for City

Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Gabriel Martinelli vs Brentford(A), £6.8m, TSB: 4.2%

• Martinelli should now get more minutes in Saka’s absence and was the furthest forward in the absence of Saka against Palace. Despite people claiming Martinelli has had a bad season he has plundered 4 Goals and 2 Assists. His stats are great too with 18 Shots, 16 Shots in the Box, 10 Shots on Target and 10 Big Chances. He has created 3 Big Chances and played 17 Key passes.
• Arsenal will face a Brentford team who rank have conceded the most Shots and Shots on Target and 3^rd most Shots in the Box. Brentford have conceded the 5^th most Goals and have only kept 2 clean sheets so far.
• Brentford’s backline is injury ravaged with Pinnock, Henry, Hickey, Van Den Berg, Ajer all injured. They also lost Mark Flekken(Likely to be ruled out) to injury against Brighton and Arsenal should smell blood against this weak defensive unit. Martinelli could be the man to profit from this game.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 19 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Dominic Solanke vs Wolves(H), £7.5m, TSB: 9.7%

• Despite people saying that Solanke has not made an impact for Spurs, he has got 11 Attacking returns this season. He has 6 Goals and 5 Assists already and has great stats. He has had 36 Shots, 33 Shots in the Box, 18 Shots on Target and got 14 Big Chances.
• Spurs play Wolves who have conceded the most Goals this season (40) and the 4^th most xGC. Wolves also rank in the Bottom 5 for Shots on Target and they concede 48% of their chances from the center of the pitch. Wolves have tightened up a bit since sacking their head coach 2 Gameweeks ago though.
• Spurs attacking stats are great and they have scored the most Goals (39) and have the 4^th most xG. They are predicted to score 2.6 Goals this game. Solanke is nailed as you get and that is a valuable thing during the Festive season.

Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL GW19 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Neco Williams vs Everton(A), £4.3m, TSB: 0.6%

If you cant afford Milenkovic or Aina in your FPL teams, Neco Williams(at 4.3 million) offers a budget entry into the elite Forest defense. Forest have conceded only 19 goals this season- Only Liverpool(17) and Arsenal(16) have conceded less goals this season. Forest have kept 7 clean sheets this season- Joint Highest in the league.

Williams has started the last 4 matches and has played 90 minutes in all these games establishing himself as the first choice LB. He also got the assist and 2 Bonus vs Brentford in GW17. Forest have won all of the last 4 games in the league too and Williams is likely to hold on to his place.

Nottingham Forest- Defense Rank this season:

Expected Goals Conceded	3rd
Big Chances Conceded	1st
Goals Conceded	3rd
Clean Sheets	Joint 1st

Forest will be up against an Everton side who are struggling for goals. Taking away the Wolves game in GW14 where Everton scored 4 goals, They have scored only one goal from the last 7 matches.

Everton Attack Stats since GW10(Rank in the league):

• Matches- 8
• xG- 7.09 (20th)
• Big Chances- 10 (20th)
• Goals Scored- 5 (Joint 20th)

That’s it for Gameweek 19. We will be back with 6 More Differentials next Gameweek where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 19.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW19:

FPL Gameweek 19 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW19 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW19 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW19 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 19 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW19 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.