Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks & metrics blog. Salah who topped our captaincy metrics last week returned with a 42 pts haul. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Gabriel Jesus, Palmer, Salah, Trent Alexander Arnold, and Haaland which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season the metrics has an 11/17 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 = 294 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW18 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW18 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah is on top of the captaincy poll for GW18 with a whopping 78% of the votes and will be up against a leaky Leicester City at Anfield. King Mo has blanked only twice so far this season and has registered 11 double-digit hauls already. The Captaincy poll this time sees the return of Gabriel Jesus in FPL fold after scoring five goals in the last two games against Crystal Palace. Palmer is 3rd in the captaincy poll against a strong Fulham team. The top five in the captaincy poll this week is filled up by Haaland & Isak.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 18 Captain picks
Salah comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 7.27 and 27 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He has also had 12 Big Chances during this run, the highest amongst all players.
Palmer is 2nd with an xG of 5.23 and is also top for chances created(18) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Isak is third in underlying numbers with 4.42 xG in the last six games. He’s also created an impressive 14 chances over the previous six games & has had 16 goal attempts in the box.
Haaland is 4th with an xG of 2.12 in the last six games. Man City’s poor form is seen in Haaland’s number who consistently used to have an xG of close to 0.8-1.0 per game.
Jesus comes 5th for underlying numbers with 1.15 xG & 9 Shots inside the Box. He’s had two big chances in the last six games. His numbers are low as he’s started only two of the last six games and played only 241 mins.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Tips – Hold or Sell Pedro?, Robinson + Rogers & More
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool top the Team Underlying Data with 18.49 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams. The Reds have also had 86 shots inside the box and 34 big chances during the period.
Chelsea are 2nd in the table with an xG of 16.10, the Blues are second for shots inside the box(83) & big chances(28).
Arsenal rank 3rd for xG amongst the five teams with the Gunners registering 13.05 xG in the six games. They have also had 74 shots inside the box and 21 big chances.
Newcastle are 4th with an xG of 11.36 & they have had 20 big chances & 67 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Man City rank only fifth for Expected Goals in the last six games with 8.82 xG, 14 Big Chances, and only 57 Shots inside the box.
Further Read: Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW18
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a whopping 96% odds of at least 1 goal and 75% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW18 vs Leicester(H).
Arsenal are second & have a 95% odds of at least 1 goal and 62% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Ipswich(H)
Man City are 3rd and have an 86% odds of at least 1 goal and 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Everton(H)
Chelsea are 4th and have an 82% odds of at least 1 goal and 44% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Fulham(H)
Newcastle are last with 72% odds of at least 1 goal and 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Aston Villa.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is top for projections this week with 74% anytime returns & a 9.0 points projection in FPL GW18 vs Leicester City in Anfield.
Haaland is 2nd for projection this week with 68% anytime returns & a 7.2 points projection in FPL GW18 against a defensively strong Everton team at home.
Palmer is 3rd for projection this week with 65% anytime returns & a 7.5 points projection vs Fulham.
Isak has an anytime returns projection of 66% and a points projection of 6.6 in GW18 & is ranked 4th in the table.
Jesus is last with a 51% anytime return & a 4.8 points projection in GW18 vs Ipswich(H)
Further Read: Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 18 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of four, the least possible number in our captaincy metrics. Palmer is a distant 2nd with a CRF of 11. Haaland is 3rd with a CRF of 14, Jesus is 4th with a CRF of 15 & Isak is last in the captaincy metrics for GW18 with a CRF of 16.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18:
FPL GW18 Tips – Hold or Sell Pedro?, Robinson + Rogers
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW18 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW18 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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