Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks & metrics blog. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Saka, Palmer, Salah, Isak and Haaland which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season the metrics has a 10/15 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 = 246 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW16 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW16 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah is on top of the captaincy poll for GW16 with 50% of the votes and will be up against Fulham who’ll be without Bassey(Suspended) & Andersen(Injured). King Mo has blanked only twice so far this season and has registered 10 double-digit hauls already. Palmer who registered a whopping 18-point haul in GW15 is second ahead of facing a leaky Brentford defence. Saka is also a tempting captaincy choice this week against Everton at the Emirates.
Isak who is in red hot form since returning from injury is fourth in the poll & has a good game at home against Leicester. Haaland is 5th in the FPL GW16 captaincy poll ahead of the Manchester derby this weekend.
Further Read: Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 16 Captain picks
Salah comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 5.55 and 21 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He has also had 11 Big Chances during this run, the highest among all players.
Palmer is 2nd with an xG of 5.33 and is also top for chances created(15) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Haaland comes 3rd for underlying numbers with 4.12 xG in the last six games. He’s also top for goal attempts in the box(23) in the last six games.
Isak is 4th with an xG of 2.15 in the last six games. He’s also had 5 big chances & has created 11 chances. It is to be noted that Isak played tricky games against Arsenal & Liverpool during the period & was also subbed off with an injury concern against Palace.
Saka comes 5th for underlying numbers with 1.60 xG & 14 Shots inside the Box. He’s had only one Big Chance in the last six games, however, he’s second for chances created(13) in the last six games which showcases his assist potential as well.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Chelsea top the Team Underlying Data with 15.34 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams. The Blues have also had 70 shots inside the box and 23 big chances during the period.
Liverpool are 2nd in the table with an xG of 13.19, the Reds are top for shots inside the box(71) & big chances(26).
Arsenal rank 3rd for xG amongst the five teams with the Gunners registering 11.57 xG in the six games. They have also had 65 shots inside the box and 20 big chances.
Man City rank only fourth for Expected Goals in the last six games with 10.63 xG, 20 Big Chances, and 70 Shots inside the box.
Newcastle are 5th with an xG of 7.48 & they have had only 12 big chances & 53 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW16
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal, Newcastle & Chelsea all have great fixtures this week and it’s seen in the odds with all three teams joint top in the table.
Arsenal have a whopping 92% odds of at least 1 goal and 48% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW16 vs Everton (H). Chelsea have a whopping 87% odds of at least 1 goal and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Brentford(H). Whereas, Newcastle have an 88% odds of at least 1 goal and 52% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Leicester City(H).
Liverpool are only 4th with 87% odds of at least 1 goal and 48% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Fulham(H). Man City are last with 81% odds of at least 1 goal and 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Man United in what will be a key Manchester derby for both teams.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland & Palmer are joint top for projections this week with Haaland having an anytime returns projection of 72% and a points projection of 7.8 in GW16. Palmer has 69% anytime returns & an 8.1 points projection in FPL GW16 at home to Brentford(H).
Salah is 3rd with 66% anytime returns & a 7.8 points projection in GW16 vs Fulham(H).
Isak is 4th with a 67% anytime returns & a 7.2 points projection in GW15 vs Leicetser City(H)
Saka is last with a 65% anytime returns & a 7.1 points projection in GW15 vs Everton(H)
The projections are really tight this week with only 1.0 pt differentiating Palmer & Saka.
Further Read: FPL GW16 Tips – Palmer, Mbeumo, Watkins Dilemmas and More
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 16 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Palmer comfortably tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of only five. Salah is behind in the 2nd position with a CRF of 10. Haaland is only 3rd with a CRF of 13, and Isak & Saka finish last with a CRF of 14.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW16:
FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW16 Tips – Palmer, Mbeumo, Watkins Dilemmas and More
FPL GW16 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW16 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 16 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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