Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks & metrics blog. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Saka, Palmer, Watkins, Jackson and Haaland which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season the metrics has an 9/14 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 = 210 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Update: The Merseyside Derby has been postponed due to weather conditions which means Salah will not be playing this week.
FPL GW15 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW15 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah is not considered for the metrics this week as he’s not playing.
Watkins who picked up a goal and an assist in GW14 vs Brentford is 2nd against in the pool this week and will be up against Southampton at home who conceded 5 goals in GW14 vs Chelsea. Haaland who picked up an assist in GW15 as Man City returned to winning ways is 3rd in the poll this week.
Palmer, Saka & Jackson complete the top five of the captaincy poll this week with the Chelsea duo up against Spurs & Saka up against Fulham respectively, all three are also playing away in GW15. Spurs have been poor in recent games and have a defensive injury crisis, making Palmer/Jackson a good alternative captaincy shout.
Further Read: FPL GW15 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 15 Captain picks
Haaland comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 5.76 and 28 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 11 Big Chances during this run, the joint highest among these players. Haaland is also on top for shots in the box as well during the period(28).
Watkins is 2nd with an xG of 4.38 and is also 3rd for big chances(8) in the last six games. He’s also had 20 shots inside the box, only one less than Salah.
Palmer comes 34d for underlying numbers with 3.69 xG in the last six games. Palmer is also top for chances created(12) in the last six games which showcases his assist potential as well.
Jackson is 4th with an xG of 1.88 in the last six games. He’s also had 5 big chances, one more than Palmer during the period.
Saka comes 5th for underlying numbers with 1.71 xG, 13 Shots inside the Box, 2 Big Chances, and 11 Chances created. He is second for chances created(11) in the last six games which showcases his assist potential as well.
Further Read: FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas and Fixtures to Target
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Chelsea top the Team Underlying Data with 14.12 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams.
Man City rank 3rd for Expected Goals with 12.12 xG, 21 Big Chances, and 68 Shots inside the box which is the highest amongst all teams.
Aston Villa are 4th with an xG of 11.83 & they have had 22 big chances & 68 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Arsenal are 5th with an xG of 10.47 & they have had 18 big chances & 60 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW15 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW15
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Aston Villa are top with a whopping 89% odds of at least 1 goal and 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW15 vs Southampton(H).
Chelsea are 2nd with 86% odds of at least 1 goal and 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW15 vs Spurs(A).
Man City are only 4th in the table with the Blues having an 83% odds of scoring at least one goal and 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals.
Arsenal are also 4th with the Gunners having an 83% odds of scoring at least one goal and 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals.
Further Read: Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 66% and a points projection of 7.0 in GW15.
Palmer is 2nd and has 62% anytime returns & a 7.0 points projection in FPL GW15 away to Spurs.
Watkins is 3rd with 64% anytime returns & a 6.4 points projection in GW15 vs Southampton(H).
Saka is 4th with a 59% anytime returns & a 6.1 points projection in GW15 vs Fulham(A)
Jackson is last with a 50% anytime returns & a 5.1 points projection in GW15 vs Spurs(A)
Further Read: FPL GW15 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 15 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Palmer tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of eight, and Haaland is close behind in the 2nd position with a CRF of 9. Watkins is 3rd with a CRF of 10.
Only a CRF of 3 separates the top three options this week which shows how close captaincy is this week.
Jackson is 4th and Saka is 5th in the captaincy metrics this week with a CRF of 12 & 18 respectively.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW15:
FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW15 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas, and Fixtures to Target
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW15- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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