Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks & metrics blog. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Salah, Saka, Palmer, Cunha & Joao Pedro which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season the metrics has a 7/12 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 = 174 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including scout picks, wildcard guide, best midfielders, best forwards, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW13 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW13 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
First things First, Haaland is not in the top five of the captaincy poll for the first time ever when he’s fit and available!
Salah tops the captaincy poll this week ahead of facing arch rivals Man City. The FPL Goat has registered 8 double digit hauls in 12 games blanking only twice so far this season. Joao Pedro is 2nd in the poll after back to back double digit hauls in GW11 & GW12. Cunha who registered a monstrous 16 points haul in GW12 is 3rd in the captaincy poll and will be at home to Bournemouth in GW13. Usual suspects Saka & Palmer round up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Tips – Best Arsenal Assets, Mbeumo Dilemma & More
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 13 Captain picks
Salah comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 4.54 and 18 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 10 Big Chances during this run which is the Highest among these players.
Palmer is 2nd with an xG of 2.41 and is also second for chances created(15) in the last six games which showcases his assist potential as well. Surprisingly he’s had only two big chances in the last six games while Chelsea forward N Jackson has had 4 big chances during the period.
Joao Pedro is third behind Palmer with 1.65 xG, 6 Shots inside the Box, and 5 Big chances which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players. Note: Joao Pedro has played only 370 minutes in his last six games(Only 4 starts) so his underlying numbers are slightly lower than the other players.
Cunha comes 4th for underlying numbers with 1.63 xG, 13 Shots inside the Box, 1 Big Chance, and 12 Chances created.
He’s in the mould of someone like Son with elite finishing capability so he’ll always overperform his xG numbers by a handsome margin(Last six games – 5 goals from an xG of 1.5)
Saka is last amongst the five players with an xG of 1.31, he’s had only one big chance but has had 19 shots inside the box and has also created 20 chances in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Tips – Best Arsenal Assets, Mbeumo Dilemma & More
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool top the Team Underlying Data with 10.96 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams. They have also registered the most big chances(24) and shots inside in the box(61)
Chelsea are 2nd with the Blues accumulating 10.45 xG over this period. They have only 13 Big Chances during the last six games & 14 teams have had more big chances than Chelsea.
Brighton rank 3rd for Expected Goals with 8.43 xG, 21 Big Chances, and 50 Shots inside the box. The seagulls have the second big chances amongst the five teams & 3rd most overall.
Arsenal & Wolves are 4th and 5th respectively with an xG of 8.23 & 7.49 in the last six games. Arsenal’s xG is understandably low following a run of tough games & the absence of Odegaard. The number should improve with a good run of games ahead for them.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Tips – Best Arsenal Assets, Mbeumo Dilemma & More
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW13
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Brighton are top with a whopping 86% odds of at least 1 goal and 48% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW13 vs Southampton(H).
Arsenal are 2nd with 86% odds of at least 1 goal and 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW13 vs West Ham(A).
Chelsea are 3rd with 77% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Aston Villa(H).
Liverpool are only 4th in the table due to the Man City fixture, the reds still have a decent odds with 70% odds of scoring atleast one goal and 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals.
Wolves are last in the table with 58% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 20% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Bournemouth(H).
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 64% and a points projection of 7.5 in GW13.
Palmer is 2nd with 64% anytime returns & a 7.2 points projection in GW12 vs Aston Villa at Home.
Saka is 3rd and has 62% anytime returns & a 6.8 points projection in FPL GW13 away against West Ham.
Cunha & Joao Pedro are tied 4th with Cunha having an anytime returns projection of 56% and a points projection of 5.9. Joao Pedro has a anytime returns projection of 57% and a points projection of 5.5. Note: Joao Pedro’s projections are slightly lower as he’s predicted to play only 76 minutes by FFHUB points prediction model this week.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Tips – Best Arsenal Assets, Mbeumo Dilemma & More
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 13 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of seven, Palmer and Joao Pedro are close behind in the 2nd and 3rd positions with a CRF of 9 & 10 respectively. Saka is 4th and Cunha is 5th in the captaincy metrics this week.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW13
FPL GW13 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW13 Tips – Best Arsenal Assets, Mbeumo Dilemma & More
GW13 Sleeper Draft Fantasy Punts and Hidden Gems
Top FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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