Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks & metrics blog, Haaland who topped our captaincy metrics last week blanked for the 4th time in the previous five games. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Salah, Son, Solanke & Haaland which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
Will it be Haaland or Salah or one of the Spurs attackers(Son/Solanke)?
This season the metrics has a 6/10 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 = 144 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including Scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW11 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW11 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Without a surprise, it’s Mo Salah for the 2nd consecutive week on top of the captaincy poll. Solanke who picked up 2 goals & an assist in GW10 vs Aston Villa is 2nd in our FPL GW11 Captaincy poll and will be up against Ipswich. Haaland is only third after blanking for the 4th time in the last five 5 PL games, Man City’s tough run continued in the Champions League as they suffered a 4-1 defeat to Sporting Lisbon with Haaland missing a penalty. Heung Min Son who made a return in GW10 and Mbeumo round off the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL GW11 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 11 Captain picks
Haaland comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 4.84 and 26 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 8 Big Chances during this run which is the 2nd Highest among these players.
Solanke is a close 2nd with an xG of 4.59 and is also top for big chances(9) in the last six games amongst all players.
Salah is third behind Solanke with 3.83 xG, 16 Shots inside the Box, and 6 Big chances. He’s also created 13 chances which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players. Salah is also only 7 points away from becoming the first player to hit 100 FPL points this season and we are only in GW11!
Mbeumo comes 4th for underlying numbers with 2.67 xG, 10 Shots inside the Box, 5 Big Chances, and 7 Chances created. He’ll be up against a Cherries side who’ll be high on confidence following their win vs Man City in GW10.
Heung Min is last amongst the five players with an xG of 1.77, he’s had three big chances in the last six games and has also created 16 chances in the last six games which highlights his assist potential.
Further Read: FPL GW11 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Spurs top the Team Underlying Data with 14.55 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams. Their 81 shots inside the box and 24 big chances are also the highest amongst all teams.
Brentford are surprisingly 2nd ahead of Man City with the Bees accumulating 10.97 xG over this period. They have had 21 Big Chances during the last six games which is the 2nd highest amongst all teams.
Man City are only 3rd accumulating 10.79 xG over this period. They have only 14 Big Chances during the last six games & 13 teams have had more big chances than Man City. They are however second for shots inside the box(75) amongst all teams only behind Spurs(81).
Liverpool rank 4th for Expected Goals with 10.39 xG, 20 Big Chances, and 56 Shots inside the box. Liverpool’s numbers are slightly lower as they had a few tricky games in the last few gameweeks.
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW11
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Spurs are top with a whopping 91% odds of at least 1 goal in Gameweek one and 58% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW11 vs Ipswich(H).
Man City & Liverpool are tied in the table with Man City having 85% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Brighton(A). Liverpool have a 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 44% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Aston Villa(H).
Brentford are last in the table and have 63% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 25% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Bournemouth(H)
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland & Salah are joint top in the projection rank table with Haaland having an anytime returns projection of 69% and a points projection of 7.5 in GW11 vs Brighton. Salah has an anytime returns projection of 68% and a points projection of 8.0 in GW10 vs Aston Villa.
Son is 3rd and has 62% anytime returns & a 7.4 points projection at home against Ipswich. Ipswich have conceded the most big chances so far this season(45). Teammate Solanke is 4th with 61% anytime returns & a 6.3 points projection in GW11.
Mbeumo is last with an anytime returns projection of 52% and a points projection of 5.8.
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 11 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Solanke takes the top spot with a CRF of only 8. Haaland is 2nd with a CRF of 9. Son is third with a CRF of 10. The top three are closely placed with a CRF difference of only one between them. Salah is 4th with a CRF of 12 & Mbeumo is last with a CRF of 17.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW11
FPL GW11 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW11 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW11 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW11 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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