Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks & metrics blog, Haaland who topped our captaincy metrics last week scored only one goal vs Southampton from an xG of 2.33 leaving many managers who triple captained him last week disappointed. This week there are strong captaincy candidates in Haaland, Salah, Palmer, Mbeumo & Wood which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
Will it be Haaland or Salah or Palmer or someone else?
This season the metrics has a 6/9 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 = 140 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW10 blogs including Scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW10 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW10 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland doesn’t top the captaincy poll for the first time in a while, with Mo Salah taking the first place with 35% of the votes after registering his 6th double-digit haul vs Arsenal in GW9.
Haaland is 2nd with 33% of the votes & will be up against Bournemouth. Cole Palmer takes the 3rd place in the poll & will be up against a Man United managed by Ruud van Nistelrooy. The two in-form non-premiums Mbeumo & Wood complete the top five in our FPL GW10 captaincy poll.
Further Read: FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 10 Captain picks
Haaland comes out on Top for underlying numbers with an xG of 5.06 and 27 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 14 Big Chances during this run which is the joint Highest among these players.
Palmer is 2nd with an xG of with 3.95 and is joint top with Haaland for big chances(7) in the last six games. Palmer has also created 14 chances in the last six games which is the highest amongst the five players.
Salah is third just behind Palmer with 3.43 xG, 15 Shots inside the Box, and 5 Big chances. He’s also created 12 chances which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players.
Mbeumo comes 4th for underlying numbers with 2.86 xG, 11 Shots inside the Box, 5 Big Chances, and 10 Chances created highlighting his assist potential as well.
The in-form man Chris Wood who is making his captaincy metrics debut is last amongst the five players with an xG of 2.32, he’s had six big chances in the last six games which is more than what Salah(5) & Mbeumo(5) have had during the period.
Further Read: Top FPL GW10 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW10 Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Chelsea top the Team Underlying Data with 12.19 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams. Their 65 shots inside the box and 20 big chances are the 2nd amongst all teams.
Man City are 2nd accumulating 11.40 xG over this period. They have only 13 Big Chances during the last six games & 13 teams have had more big chances than Man City. They are however top for shots inside the box(72) amongst the five teams and 2nd amongst all 20 teams only behind Spurs(83).
Brentford are third behind Man City with 11.34 xG. They have had 21 Big chances which is the highest amongst the five teams & 2nd highest amongst all teams only behind Arsenal(22)
Liverpool rank 4th for Expected Goals with 9.68 xG, 17 Big Chances, and 52 Shots inside the box. Liverpool’s numbers are slightly lower as they had a few tricky games in the last few gameweeks.
Nottingham Forest finish at the bottom for Team underlying data with 7.03 xG from the last 6 games. They have had 15 Big chances and 44 Shots inside the box.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW10
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a whopping 87% odds of at least 1 goal in Gameweek one and 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW10 vs Brighton(H).
Man City are 2nd in the table and have 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Bournemouth(A)
Chelsea are 3rd in the table and have 80% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 27% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Man United(A)
Brentford & Nottingham Forest are joint 4th with Brentford having 69% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 14% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Fulham(A). Nottingham Forest have a 68% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 23% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against West Ham(H).
Further Read: FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland & Salah are joint top in the projection rank table with Haaland having an anytime returns projection of 70% and a points projection of 7.7 in GW10 vs Bournemouth. Salah has an anytime returns projection of 68% and a points projection of 8.1 in GW10 vs Brighton.
Palmer is 3rd and has 63% anytime returns & a 7.0 points projection away from home against Man United.
Wood & Mbeumo are joint 4th with Wood having an anytime returns projection of 58% and a points projection of 4.9. Mbeumo has an anytime returns projection of 47% and a points projection of 5.3.
Wood’s points projection are slightly low despite having a decent anytime returns projection(58%) because his xMins is only 63 mins on FFHUB point prediction since he’s carrying a knock & currently yellow-flagged. But do not worry he should be fine to start as Nuno did not mention any major injury concerns & just flagged that Wood has got a knock.
Further Read: Best Premium FPL Assets from FPL GW10- Entry & Exit Analysis
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 10 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland takes the top spot with a CRF of only 6. Palmer & Salah are a close second with a CRF of 9. Only a CRF of 3 separates the trio. Mbeumo is 4th with a CRF of 14 & Wood is last with a CRF of 18.
Although Haaland continues to come on top of the captaincy metrics the gap at the top is gradually reducing with other candidates coming close to Haaland. This week Salah came top of the favourable fixture rank & finished joint top with Halaand on projections. Palmer meanwhile finished above Haaland for the Team’s attack rank. It is also to be noted that Haaland continues to enjoy strong underlying numbers and he in fact had a whopping xG of 2.33 vs Southampton in GW9.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW10
FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW10 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Consider Ahead of GW10 Deadline
FPL GW10 Tips – Hold or Sell Haaland/Trent, Fixture Analysis & More
Top FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW10 Team Selection- Transfer Plans and Strategy
FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Best Premium FPL Assets from FPL GW10- Entry & Exit Analysis
FPL GW10 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
FPL GW10 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW10 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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