Top FPL Gameweek 8 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome to the GW8 captaincy metrics blog. Haaland who topped our captaincy metrics last week blanked for the second time this season. Captaincy this week is interesting with a couple of good options to consider. The Top FPL Gameweek 8 Captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Watkins, Saka & Solanke. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.

Will it be Haaland or Saka or someone else?

This season the metrics has a 5/7 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 = 124 pts

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Link to all our FPL GW8 blogs including Scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW8 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW8 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

This week the top five are very interesting with Haaland still comfortably topping the FPL GW8 captaincy poll in spite of consecutive blanks in GW6 and GW7. Saka and Salah take the 2nd and 3rd place. Solanke is fourth this week in the captaincy poll due to a good fixture vs West Ham at home. Watkins is fifth in the captaincy poll. The top five that will be going into the captaincy metrics this week will be Haaland, Saka, Salah, Solanke and Watkins.

Further Read: FPL GW8 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 8 Captain picks

Haaland comes out on Top for underlying numbers with a xG of 6.22 and 29 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games comfortably topping the chart. He also has 9 Big Chances during this run which is the 2nd Highest among these players.

Watkins is 2nd for the xG with 3.56 and is surprisingly Top for Big Chances in the entire league as well in this time with 11 Big Chances.

Solanke is third just behind Watkins with 3.48 xG, 12 Shots inside the Box and 8 Big chances.

Salah comes 4th for underlying numbers with 3.40 xG, 17 Shots inside the Box, 6 Big Chances and 17 Chances created highlighting his assist potential as well.

Saka is last for underlying numbers due to a low xG of 1.70. But it is to be noted that his assist threat is the best in the league during this run- 22 Chances created including 11 Big Chances created both comfortably the Highest in the league.

Further Read: Top FPL GW8 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW8 Deadline

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Spurs Top the Team Underlying Data with 76 Shots, 25 Big Chances and 13.86 xG– Top for all the three metrics over the last 6 matches.

Manchester City are second behind Spurs with 13.18 xG during this run. They have also have 19 Big chances and 75 shots inside the box ranking 2nd for Shots inside the box as well.

Arsenal are 3rd accumulating 11.85 xG over this period. They have 25 Big Chances(Joint Top with Spurs) and 73 Shots inside the Box.

Liverpool rank 4th for Expected Goals with 11.38 xG, 22 Big Chances and 67 Shots inside the box.

Aston Villa finish at the bottom for Team underlying data with 8.0 xG from the last 6 games. Their 19 Big chances and 44 Shots inside the box are also the lowest among these teams.

Further Read: FPL GW8 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW8

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. 

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.

Manchester City are top with a 90% odds of at least 1 goal in Gameweek one and 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW8 vs Wolves(A). Their odds are excellent because Wolves have conceded the most goals(19) in the league this season.

Spurs are 2nd in the table and have 89% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and only a 48% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face West Ham at home.

Liverpool are 3rd in the table and have 87% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Chelsea at home.

Arsenal are 4th in the table and have 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Bournemouth(A).

Aston Villa finish at the bottom 73% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 18% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Fulham(A).

Further Read: FPL GW8 Fixture Swing Analysis – Teams and Players to Target

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 8 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

Haaland & Salah are joint top in the projection rank table with Haaland having an anytime returns projection of 72% and a 8.2 points projection whereas Salah has a 71% anytime returns & a 8.3 points projection..

Saka & Solanke are joint 3rd with Saka having an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of only 5.6 as he’s projected to play only 67 minutes. Solanke has an anytime returns projection of 57% and a points projection of 5.8.

Saka update from Arteta in Friday’s Press Conference: “It’s not a serious injury,” he said. “Saka is evolving really well. He’s done a few things in the last two days. He wasn’t fit enough to play with the national team the second game but we are hopeful. We have a training session this afternoon, he did some bits yesterday, so let’s see if he can make it on time.”

Watkins is last with the Villa forward having an anytime returns projection of 53% and a points projection of 5.2.

Further Read: FPL GW8 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 8 Captaincy metrics

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option. 

Haaland takes the top spot with a CRF of only 5. Solanke is second with a CRF of 9 ahead of a good home game vs West Ham in GW8. Salah is 3rd this week with a CRF of 12 whereas Saka is 4th with a CRF of 15. Watkins is last with a CRF of 17.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW8

FPL GW8 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL GW8 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Top FPL Gameweek 8 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW8 Fixture Swing Analysis – Teams and Players to Target
FPL GW8 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW8 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
FPL GW8 Tips- Premium Midfielders, Budget Assets & More
FPL GW8 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW8 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 8 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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AK - Anurag Khetan

AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1

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