Top FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW5 Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores where 2 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points.

• Jean Philippe Mateta – 2 Goals, 13 Points
• Harvey Barnes – 1 Goal, 8 Points

That makes it 12/24 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.

In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Thursday 19^th September, 2024 ahead of FPL GW5. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Son Heung Min – Tottenham – £10.0 Midfielder – 8.7 % TSB

• The last time Son was on this list, he scored a brace and got 16 Points at home against Everton in Gameweek 2. Spurs will hope to bounce back this Gameweek after the Derby Loss against Arsenal last weekend. Spurs are actually 2^nd favorites to score the most Goals according to the Goalscoring odds with 2.39 predicted Goals.
• Son is predicted to score 6.3 points according to the HUB AI Tool. Son plays 90 minutes most Gameweeks and is also the Penalty taker. He is their Talisman and can deliver double digits against any team, especially at home.
• Son has had a healthy xG of 1.31 and an xA of 0.66 with 2 Big Chances, 2 Big Chances created and 6 Key Passes. He has had 6 Shots and 3 on Target.
• Brentford had conceded the 2^nd Most Shots (69) and the Joint Most Shots on Target (27) in the League so far. This is why Son could be in for a big haul this Gameweek.

Most Shots on Target conceded in Premier League this season:

• Brentford- 27
• Everton- 27
• Southampton- 26
• Wolves- 25
• Bournemouth- 24
• Leicester – 22
• Ipswich- 20

Stats are from FFHUB -> Subscribe now with 50% off for Opta stats, Heatmaps, Player Comparisons, AI Transfer Suggestions, FPL Planners & more

Further Read: FPL GW5 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Dominic Solanke – Tottenham – £7.5 Forward – 7.1 % TSB

• The 2^nd Spurs attacking asset to target Brentford’s ropey defense. Solanke has actually played 90 minutes the last Gameweek, so should be fine fitness wise.
• Solanke is actually predicted to score 5.6 points this Gameweek, the 3^rd best among Forwards. He could be an ideal replacement for people with rotation risk Muniz, & perhaps not fully fit Isak and Pedro.
• Solanke has decent numbers in the 2 Gameweeks he has played. An xG of 0.51 and an xA of 0.18, 5 Shots and 3 Shots on Target. 1 Big Chance missed also. One can say Solanke has been slightly unlucky not to get any attacking returns so far. Could this be his week finally?

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Dominic Calvert Lewin – £5.9 Forward – 3.1 % TSB

• DCL has overcome his illness according to Dyche and should be fit to start against a Leicester side which has a major weakness from set pieces and headers. They had conceded 15 Headed attempts on Goal in 4 Gameweeks- Highest among all the teams in the league. Leicester have also allowed a lot of shots from the center of the pitch and are ranked 5th Highest for chances conceded down the center this season.
• DCL being very good in the air and playing as the Center Forward should exploit both these weaknesses of Leicester. DCL has also scored 2 Goals and 1 Assist in his last 2 Gameweeks and looks much fitter this season. He has even missed some big chances which suggests he is getting into some great positions.
• Everton do not face a single Top 6 Team from Last season in the next 10 Gameweeks. For those planning a Wildcard in Gameweek 6 or looking for a Muniz replacement, DCL could be the “GO-TO MAN”

Further Read: FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target

Bryan Mbeumo – Brentford – £7.1 Midfielder – 9.1 % TSB

• Probably the last Gameweek in which you will Mbeumo in this Category. Expect most people to pounce on the Brentford Talisman from Gameweek 6 when their fixtures turn amazing. He is the Talisman of the team and on all set pieces and Penalties. Plays 90 minutes most matches as well.
• Spurs main Defensive concern is defending set pieces and this is where Brentford thrive with the big Center Halves and Midfielders. Mbeumo will be on the majority of set pieces and thus could have a good chance of an Assist.
• Mbeumo has great stats so far. Very few players have had an xG and xA more than 1 and Mbeumo is one of them. 4 Shots on Target and 7 Shots, 2 Big Chances, 4 Big Chances created(Joint 2nd Highest in the League) and 10 Key passes shows Mbeumo’s all round ability.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Jamie Vardy – Leicester – £5.7 Forward – 9 % TSB

• No one thought that there would be a Vardy Party in 2024 when Leicester got relegated 2 years ago. Yet Vardy continues to defy his age by scoring Goals for fun.
• Everton have terrible defensive numbers and have conceded the joint most Shots on Target (27) and the most Big Chances (19) in the League so far. They have conceded 13 Goals so far and the 2^nd most xGC (8.31). Without Branthwaite, Everton will be there for the taking this Gameweek yet again.

Most Big Chances Conceded in Premier League This season:

• Everton- 19
• Southampton- 18
• Ipswich- 16
• West Ham- 15
• Leicester- 13
• Palace- 12

• Vardy has good xG numbers with 1.44, 3 Big Chances and 3 Shots on Target. Vardy only needs ½ chances to score a Goal and will fancy his chances to add to his tally against Everton this Gameweek.

Calvert Lewin vs Vardy- Stats Comparison:

Further Read: FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from Gameweek 6

FPL GW5 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Liam Delap – Ipswich – £5.5 Forward – 1 % TSB

• Southampton have had decent fixtures yet horrible defensive stats with 26 Shots on Target and 18 Big Chances conceded (Both 2^nd worst). Southampton have also conceded a lot of chances from the Center of the pitch and from the left.
• This is why Delap could get a few chances against Southampton and considering the magnitude of the fixture (an early 6 pointer), both teams will be going for it, with lots of chances for Goals in the game.
• Delap has decent stats so far with 0.39 xG with 2 Shots on Target and 2 Big Chances and 3 Chances created. Delap would be wary of his positional rival Hirst coming back into the team and will thus have an extra motivation to keep scoring against this ropey Southampton defence.

Matchup alert- Southampton have conceded 18 chances down the center this season which is the 2nd highest among all the teams in the league.

That’s it for Gameweek 5. We will be back with 6 More Differentials next Gameweek where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 5.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5

Best FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW6- Wildcard Window
FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics 
FPL GW5 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW5 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 5 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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