Welcome to the GW5 captaincy metrics blog. Haaland, who topped our captaincy metrics last week, gave us yet another haul. Salah, however, blanked for the first time this season in GW4. Captaincy this week is a bit tricky, however, with Haaland facing Arsenal. The other Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain picks include Salah, Watkins, Son, and Palmer. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
Will it be Haaland or Salah or someone else?
This season the metrics has a 4/4 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 = 104 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
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FPL GW5 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW5 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah tops the captaincy metrics in spite of blanking in GW4, Haaland is only 2nd due to the game vs Arsenal. Watkins who is in red hot form is 3rd in the captaincy poll and will be playing Wolves at home in GW5. The top five in the FPL GW5 captaincy poll is completed by Palmer & Son.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 5 Captain picks
Haaland is running away with the lead four weeks into the season with an xG of 4.87 & 8 big chances in the opening four games. His 18 shots inside the box is also the highest amongst all players.
Watkins is 2nd with an xG of 2.76, 8 big chances & 10 shots in the box which is the 2nd highest amongst all five players.
Salah who blanked for the first time this season in GW4 is third in the table with an xG of 1.96, the Liverpool attacker has had 5 big chances and 12 shots in the box. He’s also created 6 chances.
Son is only 4th with 3 shots inside the box, 1 big chance & an xG of 1.32.
Palmer is 5th with an xG of 0.83 with 2 shots inside the box & just one big chance. He’s however top amongst all players for chances created(12) and has already picked up 4 assists in four games.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Man City’s numbers are simply extraordinary with a whopping xG of 9.28 in their opening four games.
Liverpool are 2nd with an xG of 8.04 however they edge out Man City for shots inside the box(49) & big chances(17)
Aston Villa have made a strong start to the season and are 3rd with an xG of 6.97, 38 shots inside the box & 16 big chances, they have had 3 more big chances than Man City & only less than Liverpool(17)
Chelsea are 4th with an xG of 5.84, the Blues have had 30 shots inside the box & 12 big chances in the opening four games.
Spurs are last with an xG of 5.58 in the opening four games with only 10 big chances & 40 shots inside the box.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW5
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a 91% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW5.
Spurs are surprisingly 2nd and have a 89% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 44% odds of scoring 2+ goals in Gameweek 5 for their home game vs Brentford.
Aston Villa are 3rd and have 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week taking the 3rd spot ahead of their home game vs Wolves.
Chelsea are 4th in the table and have 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals against West Ham.
Man City are last in the table and have 80% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and only a 27% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face title rivals Arsenal at home.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is top of the projections this week with an anytime returns projection of 71% and an 8.2 points projection ahead of GW5.
Haaland is only 2nd in the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a 7.3 points projection in FPL Gameweek 5.
Eze is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 61% and a points projection of 7.2.
Palmer & Son are both 4th with an anytime returns projection of 57% and a points projection of 6.3.
Watkins is last with the Aston Villa forward having an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 6.2.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 5 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 7. Haaland takes the 2nd spot with a CRF of 9. Watkins is 3rd with a CRF of 13, Son is 4th with a CRF of 14 & Palmer is last with a CRF of 16.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5
FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target
FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW5 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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