FPL GW5 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW5 Scout Selection blog! This GW I am less jovial than the last, as our FPL GW4 Scout Selection team fell just 2 points short of the official FPL Scout’s team, meaning that we are back on level-pegging at 2-2 for the season. Like many managers we fell foul of the Joao Pedro debacle, and had 9 of our 11 players blank. Alas! FPL is a game of peaks and troughs, so don’t worry if you had a bad week last week, we all do. Take GW4 on the chin, let’s go into FPL GW5 with our heads held high! After all, it’s a marathon not a sprint!

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4
AllAboutFPL Team	84	65	92	44
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW5.

FPL GW5 Fixtures

FPL GW5 Scout Picks

FPL GW5 Scout Selection – Goalkeeper

Forest keeper’ Sel’s (4.5m) is our FPL GW5 Scout selection, with ‘The Tricky Trees’ playing an in-form Brighton this weekend. After an outstanding tactical performance from Nuno and his players against Liverpool in GW4, we are confident that he may be able to pull off something similar against Brighton in GW5. Both teams are unbeaten in the league, and both are currently sat on 8 points, so one could suggest that they are fairly evenly matched – so why are we putting our money on Nottingham Forest?

Statistically Forest have the 3rd best defense in the league, both in terms of expected goals against (4.23) and goals against (2). Now, a lot of this is down to poor finishing, as Sel’s post-shot expected goals is only around 2.4, meaning he has only prevented 0.4 goals, so we shouldn’t expect this massive over performance to last forever, but it could hint at a number of different things.

One could propose that Forest have just been very lucky, and that Top level footballers like Salah, Semenyo, Brereton Diaz, Cunha etc. have just been particularly unlucky against them – scuffing shots, hitting the bar – but I think it could be illustrative of something even more intriguing. This massive under performance, of teams missing loads of shots against NFFC, may suggest that, due to the way that Forest defend, teams are having to resort to longer range efforts against them, and end up missing the target, and/or that Forest’s defenders are able to close down players before they take a shot in such a way that the attacking player is put off.

It’s difficult to know for sure, as the second hypothesis would be challenging to prove using data, but the first is seemingly somewhat true, as Sels has faced 12 shots on target so far this season, 7 from inside the box and 5 from outside the box. That’s a fairly high percentage of shots from outside the box… If we take Verbruggen, for comparison, he has faced 6 shots from inside and just 2 from outside the box. Or Emi Martinez, who has faced 9 from inside and just 3 from outside.

It’s hard to know at this point if this trend will continue, but Nuno is clearly setting his team up in a way that benefits his GK and lends itself to keeping clean sheets! If Sels can keep Liverpool from scoring then I reckon he could do the same again against Brighton – he’s our pick between the sticks for FPL GW5!

FPL GW5 Scout Selection – Defenders

Another 3 man defense for us in FPL GW5, with Robertson (6,0m), Sugawara (4.5m) and Porro (5.5m) completing our defensive unit! Let’s go from most to least expensive…

The Liverpool double up last week came back to bite us, I should have listened to my own advice! : “A defensive double up is always a risky strategy, as one goal can deprive you of 8 points” – Dylan, GW4 – wise words. So this week we’ve just gone with one LFC defender, with Trent absent from our Scout Selection team for the first time this season, and Robertson taking his place!

Robertson didn’t start Liverpool’s midweek game against AC Milan, with the ‘Greek Scouser’ Kostas Tsimikas deputising for him for the whole 90 minutes. Trent on the other hand played 79′ at the San Siro, meaning that he could be a minutes risk going into the weekend, hence why we’ve gone for Robbo for GW5. Liverpool still have the best defense in the league, having conceded fewer than 3xGA and just the 1 goal so far this season, so their defenders should remain on our radars.

While Robertson’s numbers are nowhere near TAA’s, we’d rather go for the more secure minutes, at the risk of missing out on an attacking return. We all know how good the Scot has been from an attacking perspective over the past few seasons, so his ability should not be overlooked. Secure minutes for the best defense in the league and the very real possibility of an attacking return – at 6.0m he could be a bargain this GW against Bournemouth!

Next, onto Porro. Spurs play Brentford at home this week, a team who are currently running very low on attackers… Wissa and Thiago are both injured, meaning that frankly (pun intended) their manager will need to re-think and possibly restructure his side in GW5. Therefore we’ve gone for Porro, the most attacking Spurs defender, who has already scored once this season, and is averaging an astonishing 2 shots per 90, more than the likes of Son, Kulu and Maddison!

His 0.09xG/90 and 0.16xA/90 isn’t great, but again, like Robbo, we all know his quality (and his knack for scoring from range), he’s a great pick for FPL GW5.

Finally we have Sugawara. The Japanese full back has the highest expected assists per 90 in the Southampton squad, with 0.45xA/90, and the second highest key passes per 90 (of players to appear in all 4 matches) with 1.49/90. He’s the most creative defender on Southampton’s roster, and with Ipswich at home in FPL GW5, he could be a key differential!

Southampton are still point-less in 24/25, but by expected points they should be on at least 3, ahead of the likes of Leicester and Ipswich, and only just behind Newcastle and West Ham. Their xGA of over 10 is not ideal, but Ipswich are so blunt in attack that their defensive record does not worry me (as much as it probably should…) Although targeting Ipswich in GW4 backfired, for our FPL GW5 Scout Selection, Sugawara makes the cut!

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

FPL GW4 Scout Selection – Midfielders

As in GW4, we’ve gone for another 4 man midfield for our FPL GW5 Scout Selection team, with Salah (12.7m) retaining his place, flanked by Szoboszlai (6.5m), McNeil (5.4m) and Barnes (6.4m).

McNeil has created the most chances in the league this season (5), and has a very attractive fixture against relegation rivals Leicester in GW5. The English winger is going a little under the radar, as, apart from his underlying stats, it will surprise many of you to find out that he has actually already produced 2 assists and 1 goal this campaign.

McNeil is in the top 10 midfielders for points scored, ahead of the likes of ESR and Semenyo, and plays one of the promoted teams in GW5 – he should be on everyone’s radar! Everton have been unlucky not to pick up any points so far this season, and one would expect them to click sooner or later, as Dyche gets to grip with the new players at his disposal, and the squad begins to gel. He may not be a great FPL pick long term just yet, but for GW5 he should definitely be considered, especially as he only costs 5.4m!

Next on the list is Barnes. The ex-Leicester winger put in a stunning performance in Newcastle’s second half comeback against Wolves in GW4, and thus makes the FPL GW5 Scout Selection team!

It’s not just his performance in GW4 which has caught the eye though, as many have been touting Barnes as a great FPL pick since pre-season. Barnes was averaging a higher xA AND higher xG than teammate Gordon last season, sitting at just over 0.9xGI/90 over the course of the 23/24 campaign. It’s a small sample size, but this season he is averaging 0.6xG/90 and 0.63xA/90, if he can stay anywhere near those numbers over the duration of this season, he’ll be a wonderful addition to our FPL teams. With Isak an injury concern, and after a great performance in GW4, I’d expect him to start against Fulham in GW5.

Finally we have the Liverpool double up of Szobo and Salah. As much as we would have loved to include Diaz in this team, we were very short on funds (for reasons that will become clear in the Striker section), so we have instead gone for the next best option in Szobo! Slot recently said that Liverpool’s Number 8 needs to increase his attacking output, and add some more goals and assists to his game, something that we’re hoping he’ll do in GW5! His 0.46xGI/90 is not bad at all, especially when considering that he is known for low-xG long range shooting, and is often on set-pieces for Liverpool. If you’ve got the funds then Diaz is for sure a better option, but Szobo is a very decent alternative at just 6.5m.

Bournemouth Chances Conceded this season: Bournemouth have conceded a whopping 21 chances through their left flank which is where Salah operates making it an excellent matchup for Salah. The Cherries have also conceded 13 chances centrally & 15 through their right flank(LW for Liverpool)
Chances Conceded data taken from Fantasypedia website(Do check them out)

Haaland is NOT our captain this week, REPEAT Haaland is NOT our captain this week!! Salah takes the armband from Haaland this GW, after we chose to captain the Norwegian 3 GWs in a row. Salah needs no explanation, he’s one of the best players in the league, playing for one of the best attacking teams in the league, and is up against a Bournemouth side who have been fairly leaky, and do offer fairly large spaces for opposition teams to exploit in the transition. After hitting the bar twice against AC Milan we’re backing him to hit the back of the net against the Cherries!

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

FPL GW4 Scout Selection – Forwards

Haaland (armband-less), Solanke and Watkins make up our very premium and very expensive attack for our FPL GW5 Scout Selection team.

Unstoppable force up against the immovable object – Haaland versus the Arsenal defense, we can’t justify giving him the captaincy this week, especially considering Salah’s fixture, but Haaland nonetheless makes the team. He may well blank against Arsenal, but there aren’t too many other good striking options this week, and we are far too scared to take him out of the team!

Solanke is back! I still back him to score lots of goals this season – if he can do it for Bournemouth he can do it for Spurs. He lacked service against Arsenal, so was unable to make much of an impact on the game, but against Brentford he should have more luck. The Englishman is averaging 0.3xG/90, down from his 0.58xG/90 last season, but he has only played 2 matches in the league so far this season (one of them was against Arsenal), so that number will likely increase in the coming weeks.

Watkins completes the team, after scoring twice in GW4 to break his goal-less run. Watkins has the HIGHEST xG/90 of any player (over 100 minutes played) in the league this season – higher than Haaland. In fact, if you add his xA to the equation, the Villa striker is averaging over 1.5 expected goal involvements per game, that’s a goal/assist every 60 minutes!

Wolves Chances Conceded this season: Wolves have conceded 21 chances through the middle this season which is more than what they have conceded through their flanks(17 & 19) making it a good matchup for Watkins. Chances Conceded data taken from Fantasypedia website(Check it out)

He had been unlucky and suffering from a lack of confidence this season, but has hopefully moved past that after a good performance in GW4 against Everton. With a local derby against Wolves at Home in GW5, Watkins should be motivated to prove his doubters wrong by continuing his good form into GW5 and beyond.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Full FPL GW5 Scout Team

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW5. The team value is 99.6m.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5

Best FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW5 Tips – Arsenal Defense, Rotation, Fixtures to Target
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW6- Wildcard Window
FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics 
FPL GW5 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

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