Welcome back to the GW3 captaincy metrics blog, the 24/25 FPL season has gotten off to an interesting start with all most of the premium picks justifying their price tag & returning so far this season. The action now moves on to GW3 and the Top FPL Gameweek 3 Captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Watkins, Saka, and Palmer. Let’s see who tops the very first captaincy metrics of the season.
Will it be Haaland or Salah or someone else?
This season the metrics has a 2/2 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 = 44 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW3 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW3 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland without any surprise tops the captaincy poll this week with 38% of the votes following his hat trick vs Ipswich in GW2. Palmer is 2nd with 24% of the votes after his 17-point haul vs Wolves in GW2. Salah is third picking up 10% votes and will be up against Man United away from home. The top five list in the FPL GW2 captaincy poll is completed by Saka & Watkins.
Further Read: Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW3 Deadline
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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 3 Captain picks
Haaland without a surprise tops the individual table with an xG of 2.06 & 4 big chances in the opening games.
Salah is 2nd with an xG of 1.25, 3 big chances & 7 shots in the box which is the 2nd highest amongst all five players.
Watkins is close behind Salah with an xG of 0.87, 2 big chances, and 2 shots in the box.
Palmer is 4th with 2 shots inside the box, 6 chances created, 1 big chance & an xG of 0.70.
Saka is 5th with an xG of 0.40. He is top amongst the five players for chances created with 7 CC.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 3 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Salah & Liverpool top the table with a whopping 5.31 xG in their opening two games under Slot with 29 shots, and 10 big chances.
Haaland & Man City are 2nd with an xG of 4.11 including 15 shots inside the box & six big chances.
Aston Villa are 3rd with an xG of 3.30, the villains were unlucky not to score against Arsenal in GW2 with Watkins missing a few chances.
Chelsea are 4th with an xG of 2.69 and have registered 16 shots inside the box. Arsenal are last with an xG of 2.11 in the opening two games.
Further Read: FPL GW3 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW3
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City are top with a 89% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW3.
Arsenal are 2nd and have a 89% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals in GW2 for their home game vs Brighton.
Chelsea have 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week taking the 3rd spot.
Liverpool are 4th in the table and have 85% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Man United.
Aston Villa are last in the table and have 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 31% odds of scoring 2+ goals.
Further Read: FPL GW3 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 3 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 69% and a 7.3 points projection in FPL Gameweek 3
Salah is joint 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 65% and a 6.9 points projection ahead of GW3.
Palmer is also joint 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 5.2.
Saka is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 59% and a points projection of 6.8
Watkins takes the last spot with the Villa forward having an anytime returns projection of 52% and a points projection of 5.2.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 3 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 3 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 5. Salah takes the 2nd spot with a CRF of 9, Palmer takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 13. Saka & Watkins are 4th with a CRF of 16.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2024/25 PL Season
FPL Gameweek 2 Stats Summary & Key Notes
FPL GW3 Wildcard Guide- Pros, Cons, Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL GW3 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW3 Tips- Haaland, Nkunku Problem, Best Budget Assets, Wildcard Planning, etc
FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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