The EUROs are only a couple of days away, and while the template team has been set (including the likes of Kane, Mbappe and Mittelstadt), there may still be a couple of positions in our teams up for grabs. In this post we will be discussing the best 2024 Euro Fantasy MD1 Differentials, taking into account fixtures, form, underlying numbers and of course ownership (or TSB).
TSB = Teams Selected By and is usually expressed as a percentage. In this post a differential is any player under 10% TSB at the time of writing, and our ‘super’ differential pick is under 1% TSB at the time of writing.
Throughout this post I mention predicted goals for and against for the tournament, if you want to find out more, please read our Euro 2024 Predicted Goals (For & Against) of All 24 Teams blog.
Link to all our 2024 Euro Fantasy blogs in one place including Players to Target, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Chip strategy, Budget Enablers, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
2024 Euro Fantasy MD1 Differentials <10%
Arda Güler, Price: 6m, TSB 6%
The Turkish wonder kid is set to play a key role for Türkiye at this summer’s EUROs, and at 6m he could be a bargain. After an injury riddled start to his debut season with Real Madrid, he finished strongly, scoring 4 goals in his last 3 games for Los Blancos. Young players can, quite rightly, be overlooked when it comes to major tournaments such as the EUROs or the World Cup, as they are often not used to playing in such monumental, high pressure games. Güler, on the other hand, has been performing at a high level for a number of years, and has not looked back since his transfer to Real Madrid last summer; he knows what it takes to perform on the biggest of stages.
With a MD1 fixture against the lowest ranked team in the competition in Georgia (75th in FIFA’s world ranking), Güler has the potential to haul in his first major tournament appearance. He came off the bench in Türkiye’s most recent friendly and put in a man of the match performance taking 4 shots, and creating 4 chances in 45 minutes. He must to be considered for MD1.
Further Read: 2024 Euro Fantasy MD1 Team Reveal, Strategy and Keynotes
Doku, Price: 7m, TSB 7%
Man City’s second stick of Dynamite Jeremy Doku is next on the list. For me it’s a toss up between Doku (7m, 7%) and Trossard (8m, 9%), and I went with Doku based on his recent performance against Luxembourg, and also his ability to create something out of nothing. Trossard is arguably more of a goal threat, but is slightly more expensive, and is less creative.
Doku is explosive and unrelenting, and with 4 assists in qualifying after an immense season with the Sky Blues, he is an excellent pick for those of us who can’t afford KDB or Lukaku or are just searching for an alternative. He plays Slovakia in MD1, which is a good fixture attacking wise (Slovakia are predicted to concede the 3rd most goals in MD1), followed by Romania and Ukraine in MD2 and 3.
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Hojlund, Price 7.5m, TSB 6%
After a tricky start to life in England, Man United’s starlet Rasmus Hojlund finished the season well, ending it with a total of 16 goals in all competitions. His teammate Eriksen should also be considered, but based on the form he showed at the end of the season, and his 7 goals in qualifying, Hojlund is a very decent Euro Fantasy Differentials option for MD1.
His first fixture is against Slovenia, who are 36 places below Denmark in the FIFA rankings, and have the 4th worst predicted goals against of any team for the group stages. Denmark, on the other hand, are widely expected to make it out of the group, and the Red Devils’ front man will surely be integral of their progression to the knockout rounds. Despite not scoring or assisting, he has produced 5 shots, 3 chances created in their 2 most recent friendly matches against tough opposition (Norway and Sweden), making him a great option for MD1.
Further Read: 2024 Euro Fantasy MD1: 5 Must-owns + 5 Dilemmas + 5 Punts
Dumfries, Price: 5.5m, TSB 7%
If you’re like me, you’re probably thinking to yourself, how is Dumfries on less than 10% ownership, when he delivered 2 goals and an xG/90 of 0.57 at Euro 2020. Unfortunately, he has one teammate (Virgil Van Dijk) who is on penalties, and another (Frimpong) who is likely to play out of position on the Right Wing. Nonetheless, Inter’s flying Dutchman still offers incredible attacking threat and is cheaper and has lower ownership than Van Dijk.
He has 5 assists in qualifying (the most in the Netherlands squad), and is coming off the back of an excellent season with Italian Champions Inter Milan, in which he produced an impressive tally of 4 goals and 4 assists (0.44G+A /90). With Poland in MD1, a good fixture for both attacking and defensive returns, he should not be ignored.
Further Read: Euro 2024: Most In-Form Players in Each Position | Euro Fantasy
Scamacca, Price: 7m, TSB 2%
My Final Differential Pick for MD1 is Italy’s Gianluca Scamacca. The Atalanta forward only started 17 games in Seria A this season, making a further 12 appearances from the bench, and netting himself 12 goals and 6 assists in the process. This, coupled with the dearth of truly elite Italian strikers at the moment, means that he will be Spalletti’s N.9 going into the tournament.
Let us not forget that only 2 seasons ago Spalletti won the league with Napoli, and his forward Osimhen scored a whopping 31 goals in all competitions that season; if he can work some of that same magic into Scamacca, he could really explode this tournament. Italy play Albania in MD1, the easiest fixture of their group stage, so this is a great opportunity to get ahead of the curve AND possibly get some big points in MD1.
Further Read: 2024 Euro Fantasy: Best Forwards to Target for MD1
Euro Fantasy Super Differential for MD1 <1%
Guehi, Price 4.5m, TSB 1%
This section will be more adventurous in MD2 (I promise), but it’s hard to pick a low owned player who we are confident will start and is likely to pick up points when a ball hasn’t been kicked. Therefore, this week, I’m going for a safer option in terms of minutes, and one who is likely to return a clean sheet. While Switzerland’s Amdouni and Ukraine’s Tsygankov both peaked my interest, my pick for MD1 is England’s Marc Guehi. While perhaps not the most inspiring pick, Guehi is likely to start against Serbia in MD1, especially considering John Stones’ injury concerns, and is a cheap way into the England defence, which is notoriously steady at international tournaments.
Of course, the pricier options of Trent and Walker are appealing, but the two will be competing for a starting spot in the team, so their minutes are a risk, whereas, Guehi has started both of England’s most recent friendly matches. Pickford is the highest owned keeper in the game, sitting at 23% TSB, so picking Guehi (or any other England defender) would allow managers to diversify slightly, while not losing out if England manage to keep a clean sheet in MD1. Of course, if Guehi doesn’t start in MD1 then you can always wildcard and restructure in MD2, for more information on chip stratergy for Euro Fantasy 2024 check out this blog below
All expected goal Data is from Opta
Predicted goals for and against are taken from this blog:
Euro 2024 Predicted Goals (For & Against) of All 24 Teams
League code: oRVUxQ
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of Euro Fantasy MD1
Understanding the game:
UEFA Euro 2024 Fantasy Guide- Rules, Scoring, Chips, Subs, etc
List of Good & Creative 2024 Euro Fantasy Team Names
Key Differences between Euro Fantasy & FPL Explained
Euro 2024 Fantasy vs 2020 Fantasy: Changes to the Game + Draft
Fanteam Fantasy: FanTeam Euro Fantasy Tournament- Rules, Scoring, Prizes & Tips
Must Read articles:
2024 Euros- Predicted Lineups and Formation for all 24 Teams
2024 Euro Fantasy MD1: 5 Must-owns + 5 Dilemmas + 5 Punts
2024 Euro Fantasy MD1 – Top Differential Picks to Consider
Euro Fantasy MD1 – Best Captain Picks for Each Day (Safe vs Risky Picks)
UEFA Euro Fantasy 2024- Penalty and Set Piece Takers for all Teams
Euro Fantasy MD1- Best Fixtures And Players To Target
Euro 2024 Fantasy: Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
Euro 2024: Most In-Form Players in Each Position | Euro Fantasy
Euro Fantasy Football – The Best Budget Enablers & Hidden Gems
2024 Euro Fantasy MD1 Team Reveal, Strategy and Keynotes
Euro 2024 Predicted Goals (For & Against) of All 24 Teams
2024 Euro Fantasy: The A-Team Chip Strategy Guide
UEFA Euro 2024 Friendlies Tracker of All 24 Teams in One Place
2024 Euro Fantasy Ultimate Guide: Best Players, Captaincy & More
Group Wise- Preview:
EURO 2024 Group A – Preview, Analysis & Top Fantasy Assets
EURO 2024 Group B – Preview, Analysis & Top Fantasy Assets
EURO 2024 Group C – Preview, Analysis & Top Fantasy Assets
EURO 2024 Group D – Preview, Analysis & Top Fantasy Assets
EURO 2024 Group E – Preview, Analysis & Top Fantasy Assets
EURO 2024 Group F – Preview, Analysis & Top Fantasy Assets
Position Wise Analysis and Best Assets:
Euro Fantasy 2024 – Best Goalkeepers to Target for MD1
Euro Fantasy Defenders to Target at Every price point
Euro Fantasy 2024 ~ Best Midfielders To Target For MD1
2024 Euro Fantasy: Best Forwards to Target for MD1
Link to all our 2024 Euro Fantasy blogs in one place including Players to Target, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Chip strategy, Budget Enablers, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of the 2024 UEFA Euro Fantasy?
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