Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Final Gameweek of the season. Here we go. Trying to catch up 15-20 points in your mini-league? Or just want to have fun in the final week? We have got you covered with the Top Differential Picks(<10% TSB) for FPL GW38 with Stats and Detailed Analysis.

Note: TSB% are at the time of writing and could vary as we close in towards the deadline

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW38 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Leandro Trossard vs Everton(H), £6.6m, TSB: 2.8%

Trossard has been a stellar signing for Arsenal and has scored important goals for the Gunners throughout the season. Arsenal are up against Everton at home with title hopes still alive going into the last game of the season. When the two teams played each other earlier in the season it was Trossard who scored the winner in a 1-0 win.

In the last six games, Trossard has scored four goals, and, against Man United in GW37, the Belgian attacker racked up a whopping 1.26 xGI in just 65 minutes. Over the last six games, Trossard has scored 39 points which is only three less than Havertz during the period!

Player	Shots	On Target	Shots Inside the Box	Big Chances	xG	Goals	Chances created	BCC	xA	Assists	xGI	Pts
Havertz	15	11	13	4	2.2	3	12	4	1.44	3	3.6	42
Trossard	14	5	12	2	2.42	4	5	0	0.86	0	3.3	39
Rice	15	5	8	1	0.94	1	12	2	1.06	4	2	36
Saka	24	8	19	3	2.88	2	20	2	1.58	2	4.5	35
Ødegaard	15	2	6	1	1.28	1	17	2	1.99	2	3.3	31

Everton’s chances conceded are heavily on the central and left flank with the toffees conceding 22 chances each in the central and left flank(Trossard zone) whereas they have conceded only 10 chances on their right flank(Saka zone) in the last six games.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Michael Olise vs Aston Villa(H), £5.7m, TSB: 3.0%

In an injury-hit season, Olise has started only 13 league games this season. But he has managed to get 6 FPL Double Digit Hauls which means he is almost averaging a Double Digit haul every 2 games. To put things into context, the likes of Salah and Saka have 9 Double Digit hauls each from 27 and 35 starts respectively.

Olise has 10 goals, and 5 assists from 18 apps(13 starts) this season. Olise is also ranked 5th among all Midfielders for xGI/90 this season. He has 4 goals, and 2 assists from his last 5 matches averaging more than 8 points/game.

Top Midfielders for FPL Points since GW34:

• Olise- 43
• Havertz- 41
• Trossard- 36
• Madueke, Rice, De Bruyne- 34

Palace are also a different team when Eze and Olise play together.

Palace- When Olise and Eze start together:

Eze and Olise have started 9 games together so far this season. The Eagles have won 6 out of those 9 games, and have scored 22 goals.

	Crystal Palace with Olise and Eze	Crystal Palace Without Eze and Olise
Goals Scored / Game	2.44	1.04
Points Won / Game	2.11	0.89

10/15 of Olise’s goal involvements have come at home this season. Up against a Villa team who have nothing to play for after securing a Champions League spot(and are busy partying :P), Olise can be an in-form differential who can help you catch up ranks in mini-league.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Alexander Arnold vs Wolves(H), £8.4m, TSB: 9.9%

We usually don’t recommend a Defender Transfer for GW38 as there are usually more goals scored and less clean sheets in GW38 historically. But TAA is an exception. We all know how explosive Trent can be on his day just with attacking potential. Even though TAA has only 12 points from the last 5 matches with no clean sheets, Trent’s underlying numbers are excellent.

TAA Rank among Defenders since GW34:

• Shots- 1st
• Shots on Target- Joint 1st
• xA- 1st
• Big Chances created- Joint 2nd
• xGI- 2nd

Matchup alert:

• In the second half of the season, Wolves have conceded 20 attempts from Set Pieces- 5th Highest among all the teams in the league.
• Wolves have conceded 129 chances from their left flank this season- 7th Highest among all teams. We all know good is TAA in terms of chance creation from the right side(opposition left flank)

Even though Liverpool don’t have much to play for, the players will give it their all to give a fitting farewell to their boss. On the other hand, Wolves are a team at the beach with just 1 win from the last 9 matches scoring only 8 goals- 2nd Lowest among all the teams in the league. In this way, there is good scope for both attacking returns and clean sheet potential for TAA in GW38. If at all you need to make a Defender transfer and you are chasing ranks, TAA is definitely our pick

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Cody Gakpo vs Wolves(H), £7.1m, TSB: 2.5%

Liverpool will look to finish the season on a high in what will be Klopp’s final game as the Reds manager. The Dutch attacker has been in good form over the last few games and his xMins in FPL GW38 is fairly secure.

In his last four starts, Gakpo has registered 2 goals and 2 assists blanking only once in the four games. Since GW34, Gakpo has had the most shots(16) amongst Liverpool players and has the same xGI of Salah(2.5) during the period.

Player	Shots	On Target	Shots Inside the Box	BC	xG	Goals	Chances created	BCC	xA	Assists	xGI	Pts
Salah	14	6	13	3	1.85	1	6	3	0.62	2	2.5	19
Gakpo	16	6	13	1	1.74	2	6	2	0.73	2	2.5	25
Elliott	13	6	6	1	0.92	1	9	1	1.11	3	2	24
Robertson	5	4	5	1	1.08	2	11	1	0.87	0	1.9	25
Luis Díaz	9	4	9	2	0.92	0	16	0	0.95	1	1.9	12
Alexander-Arnold	12	4	4	0	0.47	1	7	2	1.11	0	1.6	12

Wolves last kept a clean sheet in GW26 vs Sheffield United and have since gone without a clean sheet in 11 games. In the last six games, Wolves have conceded 14 goals(5th most in the league) and their xGC of 12.10 is the 6th worst in the league during the period. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Liverpool go big in this game.

Excellent Matchup:

Gakpo also has a brilliant matchup against Wolves who have conceded 72 shots in the last six games, 3rd most in the league during the period. Wolves have also conceded 29 chances through their middle in the last six games which is also the joint 3rd most in the league during the period. Gakpo operated centrally giving him a spicy matchup in the last game of the season.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Brennan Johnson vs Sheffield United(A), £5.8m, TSB: 1.8%

A player who is only 1.8% owned with Most Big Chances among Midfielders in the second half of the season up against the worst defensive side in the league. Presenting to you- Brennan Johnson! Believe it or not, Johnson has more Big Chances than Palmer, Salah, Son, Saka in the second half of the season!

Johnson even has overall better numbers than his compatriot Son who is 4 million more than him.

Johnson vs Son- Second Half of the season:

	Johnson	Son
Minutes	1243	1250
xG	6.34	4.51
Big Chances	15	9
Big Chances Created	9	8
Goal Involvements	11	10

Sheffield United are one of the few sides in the league who are more poor at home defensively than away. They tend to try to attack more at home leaving more spaces behind.

Sheffield United Defense(Per 90 stats)- Home vs Away

• Goal Conceded- 3.00 vs 2.47
• Big Chances Conceded- 3.17 vs 2.89

This is the 5th time in last 9 years Tottenham are up against an already relegated side at away. Safe to say that there were plenty of goals in these games.

• 2022/23 vs Leeds, 4-1 win
• 2021/22 vs Norwich, 5-0 win
• 2016/17 vs Hull, 7-1 win
• 2015/16 vs Newcastle, 1-5 loss

Johnson is still only owned by only 1.8%. With an excellent fixture vs Sheffield United, there will be plenty of goals in this fixture. Johnson could easily be among them.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

FPL GW38 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% Ownership)

Christopher Nkunku vs Bournemouth(H), £7.2m, TSB: 0.9%

Looking to ballon up in your mini-league ranking in the last gameweek of the season?

Then look no further than Christopher Nkunku

It has been a disappointing season with injury issues for Nkunku but he has slowly been getting back to full fitness over the last few games and picked up his 3rd PL goal of the season vs Brighton in GW37.

Mudryk is ruled out of the last game of the season which means Nkunku is most likely to play from the beginning.

Chelsea have been in great towards the end of the season registering four consecutive wins. In fact, in the last 12 games, the Blues have scored a minimum of 2 goals in 11 games. During the 12-game period, they have failed to score 2 goals only against Arsenal in GW34.

Looking at xG numbers the Blues are 3rd with an xG of 12.77 in the last six games only behind Man City and Newcastle United. Chelsea have also had a whopping 22 big chances in the last six games which is the 3rd highest as well.

The cherries have conceded heavily through their left flank and central areas, which is where Nkunku operates giving him a great matchup as well.

Bournemouth have got nothing much to play for whereas Chelsea are in contention for a Europa League spot and the Blues will be determined to win the game and seal their UEL spot.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38

FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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