Top FPL GW25 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The first major double Gameweek is upon us as four teams have two fixtures each. All focus from FPL managers will of course be on Man City and Liverpool. However, it is important not to discount Brentford and Luton players, in spite of tricky fixtures. With Liverpool blanking in GW26, it is important to balance out transfers, looking into the future. In this blog, we take a look at the Top six Differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW25 Deadline.

Link to all our FPL GW25 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW25 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Nathan Ake vs Chelsea(H), Brentford(H), £5.0m, TSB: 7.4%

Nathan Ake registered an assist last week against Everton, where he picked up a 11 point haul. The Dutchman now has 5 attacking returns( 2G 3A) in the league- the same amount as the rest of the Man City defenders combined.

The former Bournemouth man has started and has played 90 minutes in each of the last 8 league matches. He is the only outfield player to have played the full quota from Man City.

Ake is top for shots in the box, xG, and bonus points among Man City defenders. With KDB back from injury, Pep Guardiola’s men are likely to be more effective from set pieces.

Ake himself has significantly improved his attacking threat this season when compared to last. That can be clearly seen in the amount of shots in the box he has had per 90 this season when compared to last. With Gvardiol officially ruled out for 2-3 weeks, This increases Ake’s expected minutes for the Double Gameweek as well.

Man City in recent times have been prone to find ways to throw away the possibility of keeping clean sheets. However, four of their six clean sheets have come at the Etihad stadium. They have shut out their opponents in two of their last three home matches.

Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Luis Diaz vs Brentford(A), Luton(H), £7.5m, TSB: 9.9%

After Liverpool’s 4-0 win at Bournemouth a few weeks back, we all got onto the Jota and Darwin bandwagon, but it is Luis Diaz who has stolen the show post then for Jurgen Klopp’s men. The Colombian has had 4 goal involvements in the last three matches, more than the rest of the attack combined.

The fact that Diaz has had the same number of big chances as Darwin says a lot about the improved attacking threat of the former Porto man over the last three GWs. We say that as Diaz had a total of a mere 5 big chances in the first 20 gameweeks.

Diaz is significantly cheaper than Jota, by a margin of £0.8. That could be vital for those of us trying to fit in Haaland, Saka, KDB, Foden, and indeed one of the Liverpool midfielders.

Meanwhile, One of Liverpool’s FPL GW25 opponents Luton Town(77) have conceded more big chances than any other team in the league so far this season. You heard that right. They have a worse tally than Sheffield United(75), despite playing one game less than the Blades. Adding on to that, when Liverpool played Luton last time out, it was Diaz who scored a late equaliser for the Reds.

The Reds’ other opponent- Brentford have the fourth-worst record in the league for chances conceded down the left flank, behind only Sheffield United, Burnley, and Spurs.

Further Read: FPL GW25 Free Hit Guide- Players To Target And Best Drafts

Jarrad Branthwaite vs Crystal Palace(H), £4.2m, TSB: 4.7%

Everton have been on a wretched run of form of late. The Toffees are winless in their last 7 matches, losing 4 of them. However, in this period, they have played both Man City and Spurs twice, and played Aston Villa as well.

Their fixture run for the rest of the season looks fairly decent. Especially the upcoming run of games. Two of their next 3 matches are at home and against teams that are desperately struggling for goals and points. Sean Dyche’s men have kept clean sheets in 3 out of the last 5 matches at Goodison Park.

Branthwaite is the perfect option for the fourth or fifth defender, especially for those who are on a wildcard. Everton’s defence is one of the best in the league across all the key stats.

Everton’s defence- Key Stats

• Big chances conceded- 49 (4th best)
• NPxGA- 30.1 (4th best)
• Clean Sheets- 8 (joint 2nd best)
• Goals Conceded- 32 (4th best)

Ivan Toney vs Liverpool(H), Man City(A), £8.2m, TSB: 8.0%

Ivan Toney has come back from his time out in the exact manner in which he was playing before his ban. It is like he hasn’t been away from the game. He has registered 4 attacking returns (3G 1A) in 4 matches post his return.

Brentford are the only team to have two fixtures in GW25, have a confirmed fixture in both GW26 and mega blank GW29. This makes having their assets, especially for those managers who don’t plan to use the Free Hit chip in GW29, all the more important.

Since GW21, no player has had more big chances than Toney(6). He also has the tenth best xGI(2.7) in this period. Besides, Toney has 2 goals in 3 matches against Man City- one of the Bees’ opponents in FPL GW25.

The Englishman has a very good record against some of his upcoming opponents. For instance, West Ham- who Brentford play in GW26 are Toney’s second favourite opponent in terms of goal involvement. Therefore, we are essentially picking Toney at a perfect time when both the fixtures and the history are in his favour!

Further Read: Teams & Players to Target for FPL DGW25 | Double Gameweek 25

Ross Barkley vs Man Utd(H), Liverpool(A), £5.0m, TSB: 2.2%

Ross Barkley has been one of the standout players in the league, let alone for Luton Town, in the past couple of months or so. The former Chelsea man has registered 7 attacking returns(3G 4A) since Gameweek 14.

Barkley has the twelfth best goal involvement tally in that period, alongside his teammates Doughty and Morris, who also have 7 goal involvements. But, where Barkley stands out is in BPS. The Englishman has the seventh best tally in the league for BPS since GW14, among outfielders.

The Luton man is also top for shots, big chances created, and key passes among his compatriots. In fact, in the entire league only Odegaard(10), Alexander-Arnold(9), Gross(8), and Salah(6) have created more big chances than Barkley(5) in the aforementioned time period. Furthermore, since GW21, Barkley(16) has created the second most number of chances, behind only Odegaard(17).

Luton not only have a double GW this week, they also have two fixtures in GW28. Furthermore, they are likely to have a fixture in GW29 as well, given that Nottingham Forest take on an in-form Man Utd in the FA Cup.

Only four teams have scored more goals than Luton Town(20) since GW15. Each of the three teams above have, however, played one game more than the Hatters. Rob Edwards’ men are truly a force to reckon with!

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 25 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

FPL GW25 Ultra Differential Pick (<10% ownership)

Willian vs Aston Villa(H), £5.3m, TSB: 0.6%

Fulham have bounced back in the last five GWs, winning two, drawing two, and losing only one of the fixtures, against Chelsea. This form has coincided with Willian’s return from injury. In his absence, Marco Silva’s men lost each of the three matches and failed to score a single goal in that period.

In fact, Fulham have failed to win any of the 7 games Willian hasn’t started (6 losses, 1 draw). They have scored only 6 goals in these 7 matches, whereas they have scored 27 in the 17 matches that the Brazilian has started.

The former Arsenal man has more shots(37), more shots on target(15), more xPts(76.23) than any of his teammates, in spite of missing quite a few matches through injury. In fact, since GW21, only Trossard(12) has had more shots than Willian(11) among midfielders priced < £7.0.

Now, although Fulham don’t have a double GW, the West Londoners do have a kind run of games coming up, including a guaranteed fixture in GW29. They play four of the bottom for big chances conceded in the last six GWs, between GWs 25 and 32. Therefore, now is the time to bring Fulham assets in and Willian by far is the best of the lot!

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL DGW25

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Top FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW25 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
FPL GW25 Tips – Players to Target, DGW/BGW Planning & More
Best Differential Picks for FPL DGW25(<10% TSB)
FPL Gameweek 25 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
Teams & Players to Target for FPL DGW25 | Double Gameweek 25
FPL GW25 Free Hit Guide- Players To Target And Best Drafts
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW25 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW25 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 25 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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