Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW23 is upon us already & in this blog, we take a look at the Top six Differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW23 Deadline

Link to all our FPL GW23 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW23 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Pascal Gross vs Crystal Palace(H), £6.5m, TSB: 6.2%

Many managers would have been surprised seeing Gross in here. It has been a few disappointing Gameweeks for Gross owners with 4 blanks from the last 4 games. But he has been unlucky and the underlying numbers tell a different story. In fact, Gross is Joint Top for Big Chances created(3) during this time.

Pascal Gross- Underlying numbers from last 4 games:

• 7 Shots
• 5 Shots inside the box
• 2 Big Chances
• 0.71 xG, 1.38 xA
• 10 Chances created
• 3 Big Chances created
• 2.1 xGI

All these brilliant numbers for a 4 consecutive blanks. Considering how important Gross is to the Brighton system, the tide should turn sooner than later. Gross is also on corners and free kicks which improves the chances further.

Key Stats- Pascal Gross

• Since GW13, No player has got more assists than Pascal Gross(5) in the league.
• Only Saka(58) and Trippier(58) have created more chances than Gross(57) in the Premier League this season.

Even though Olise and Eze are back for Palace which has improved their attack, their defense is still struggling. Over the last 4 games, Palace have conceded 10 goals. They are ranked 19th in the league for xGC Conceded and also Big Chances conceded. Not only for this week, Gross fixtures look good for the upcoming run.

Further Read: FPL GW23 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Anthonee Robinson vs Burnley(A), £4.4m, TSB: 1.2%

If you are looking for a Budget defender to cover the next few weeks before Wildcarding in GW25, Robinson can be a good differential shout. He is in excellent form which means there were transfer rumors linking him to Chelsea/City close to the deadline. Antonee Robinson has made at least 13 more interceptions (52) than any other player in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season- Such has been his quality.

Key Stat: Since GW12, Only Porro(6) and Doughty(5) have more assists than Robinson(3) among Defenders.

Burnley also leave up spaces on their right flank in transition which could help Robinson. Fulham and Robinson will be up against a Burnley side who are ranked 20th for xG, 19th for Big Chances in the league since GW12. So there is good clean sheet potential as well as attack potential this week for Robinson. Fulham also have a confirmed fixture in GW29 where many teams are expected to blank and Robinson could come in handy there as well.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Michael Olise vs Brighton(A), £5.9m, TSB: 1.8%

Michael Olise came back from his latest injury, in some style. The Frenchman registered a goal and two assists, which got him a 16 haul against Sheffield United. The former QPR man now has 9 attacking returns( 6G 3A) this season, more than any of his compatriots.

Believe it or not, Olise(70) is by far the top points scorer in FPL since Gameweek 13. In this period, he has had more goal involvements, more BPS, and more joint top for bonus points along with Trent Alexander-Arnold.

In fact, Olise has at least one attacking return in each of his last 5 starts. One of those starts was against FPL GW23 opponents- Brighton, where he got himself an assist and a bonus point.

Roy Hodgson’s men have a great run of games coming up. Each of their next nine fixtures have an FDR rating of either 2 or 3. Five of Palace’s six wins this season have come against such opponents. Brighton are fresh off from a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Luton town. Who is to say that Olise and Co can’t pile more misery on their arch-rivals?

Word of Caution: There is a suggestion that Olise’s minutes could be managed. Do watch out for Hodgson’s press conference on Friday before bringing him in!

Dan Burn vs Luton(H), £4.4m, TSB: 4.7%

Newcastle produced arguably their standout result of the season, by winning at Villa Park by 3-1. That ended their run of 4 straight defeats in the league. It also put an end to Villa’s extraordinary unbeaten record at home.

After a tough run of games, the Magpies have a great run of fixtures coming up starting with Luton at home. Luton are 3rd worst for xGC conceded from set play(8.5) so far this season, Newcastle are meanwhile are 4th for set play xG(8.29) and set play goals(9) this season which gives a good-headed matchup for big Dan Burn as well!

At just £4.4m, playing for one of the defensively strong teams in the PL, Dan Burn is a no-brainer option if you’re looking for a cheap defender to fit in Haaland this week.

Further Read: Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29

FPL GW23 Ultra Differential Picks (<1% ownership)

Willian vs Burnley(A), £5.3m, TSB: 0.7%

Willian was influential for Fulham before his injury which kept him out for a few games due to injury. During the GW13-16 period, he bagged 3 goals and an assist with Fulham winning 3 of the four games.

He’s been a bit silent since his return from injury but fixtures are on the kinder side for Willian to return back to form. Willian should also be the one on penalties especially now that Jimenez is injured.

Burnley have also kept only one clean sheet at home so far this season and are 2nd for goals conceded(25) and 3rd for big chances conceded(29) in home games this season.

Burnley are 4th for most chances conceded(81) through their left flank so far this season and this is where Willian operated giving him a great matchup.

He’s a great short-term punt if you’re looking to wildcard in GW25, Fulham also have a confirmed fixture in GW29 and he could be a decent hold for that if you’re not wildcarding before GW29!

Further Read: FPL GW23 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Ben Brereton Diaz vs Aston Villa(A), £5.0m, TSB: 0.1%

Ben Brereton Diaz has picked up two goals in his first two PL games for Sheffield United. In fact, Brereton Diaz is the first player representing Chile to score in the Premier League since Alexis Sanchez in 2018.

Yes, Sheffield are rooted to the bottom of the PL table but goals aren’t the main problem for them with the Blades.

In the last two games, the Blades have picked up four goals from an xG of 3.13 and have had five big chances which are decent numbers

The Chilean was subbed off at halftime vs Crystal Palace due to a tight hamstring. Later Chris Wilder confirmed that it was just a pre-caution and that he’s available for the game vs Aston Villa in GW23.

The next four fixtures aren’t too bad for Sheffield United from an attacking perspective and he could be a great 5th midfielder in our FPL teams

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW23

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW23 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 23 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW23 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW23 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW23 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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