Top FPL Gameweek 23 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, for the first time since GW17 Haaland has once again become a solid captain choice after coming off the bench vs Burnley in GW22. The other popular FPL Gameweek 23 captain picks include Palmer, Solanke, Watkins and Kevin Be Bruyne. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland or would someone else be taking the top spot?

The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

This season the metrics has a 14/22 returns record

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Total metrics points: 346 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*)

FPL GW23 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW23 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Haaland made his return in GW22 and without a surprise, he takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with 27% of the votes. Kevin De Bruyne is 2nd on the captaincy poll with 16% of the votes. Watkins who is up against Sheffield United is 3rd with 12% of the votes. Palmer and Solanke both of whom playing at home in GW23 take the 4th and 5th spot with 9% and 7% votes respectively.

Further Read: Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 23 Captain picks

Haaland takes the top spot, the Man City forward has registered 21 shots inside the box, 9 big chances, and an impressive xG of 4.80 in the last six games(Note: Five of those six games were before the injury)

Solanke is behind Haaland with an xG of 4.04 and an impressive 23 shots inside the box, and 6 big chances in the last six games.

Palmer is 3rd registering an xG of 2.89 in the last six games along with 3 big chances, and 10 chances created.

Watkins is 4th with 2 big chances in the last six games and xG of 1.61, he has also created 8 chances in the last six games.

De Bruyne is last with only an xG of 0.34 in the last six games. Do note: KDB’ last six games data include last season’s data as he has appeared only thrice this season. His numbers are understandably lower because in his last six matches(End of 22/23 & 23/24), he has played only 283 minutes(Average of only 47 mins per game). Despite this, he has created 3 big chances and registered an xA of 1.53 which reiterates the fact that he’s an elite chance creator with a knack of scoring crucial goals

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Man City’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the current PL champions have registered a healthy xG of 12.78 during the period. They have had 68 shots inside the box and 18 big chances which is also the highest highest amongst the five teams in the table.

Chelsea are 3rd in the table with an xG of 11.95. The Blues are second for big chances(17) in the last six games amongst the four teams. Since there are two Man City assets Chelsea take the 3rd rank!

Aston Villa are 4th with an xG of 9.89 and have had 56 shots inside the box and 16 big chances.

Bournemouth are last with an xG of 9.16 from 60 shots inside the box and 14 big chances.

Further Read: Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW23

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. 

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole. 

Man City have a whopping 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 42% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures a top spot for the defending PL champions.

Chelsea and Aston Villa both have an 85% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 36% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures they finish above Bournemouth

Bournemouth are last amongst the four teams but still have good odds with an 83% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 33% chance of scoring 2+ goals

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 23 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

Haaland tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 70% and a 5.2 points projection in FPL Gameweek 23. Haaland’s anytime return odds are the highest but his predicted points are slightly lower because he’s been predicted to play 60 mins by the FFHUB model

Solanke is 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 51% and a points projection of 5.3 against Nottingham Forest(H).

KDB is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 56% and a points projection of 5.1 against Brentford(A).

Palmer is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 50% and a points projection of 5.1.

Lastly, Watkins finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 47% and a points projection of 4.9 ahead of facing Sheffield United (A)

The gap in predicted points is really close amognst the five options with only 0.4 separating the 1st(Solanke) and last(Saka)

Further Read: Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 23 Captaincy metric analysis

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric. 

Haaland takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 4, the lowest possible CRF. He’s closely followed by De Bruyne and De Bruyne who is second with a CRF of 10. Palmer takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 13, followed by Solanke with a CRF of 14 in the 4th place. Watkins is last with a CRF of 16.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW23

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW23 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 23 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW23 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW23 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW23 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 23 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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