Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Gameweek 17 went pretty well for most of the week until Liverpool decided to come up with a tepid performance against Man Utd. That meant that for a lot of managers, a potential 90+ week ended prematurely in the 70s or late 60s. Nonetheless, games come in thick and fast in the month of December. So, to have a week off from FPL is good. More importantly, a week without major injury concerns. Fingers crossed. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider for FPL GW18 who may be that player to provide rewards that match the risk!

Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW18 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Dejan Kulusevski vs Everton(H), £7.1m, TSB: 4.1%

Kulusevski registered 14 points last time out against Nottingham Forest. That was his second double digit haul in the last 4 Gameweeks, having got only 1 in the first 13 matches.

The above image is very important as it shows a clear difference in the key stats of the Spurs man in Gameweek 13-17 compared to 1-12. This is largely because he has played a number 10 in these fixtures. All key numbers such as xG, SIB, BCC, Final third passes, but most importantly, touches in the box, per 90 are significantly better in recent weeks.

From GW1 to GW12 Kulusevski had the third best tally among Spurs players for xPts (41.53), behind Maddison(49.93), and Son(60.46). Whereas from GW13, the Swede is 2nd on that list with 21.63, behind the Korean(24.89). The gap has significantly reduced!

The Swedish international is also best in the league for minutes played among midfielders so far this season. That serves well from an FPL perspective as a lot of rotation happens in the festive period normally.

Spurs have a great run of fixtures coming up. Only one of their next 10 fixtures have an FDR rating of above 3. That is at Man Utd. The less said about their home form, the better.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Leon Bailey vs Sheffield United(H), £5.6m, TSB: 2.4%

Aston Villa are one of the most in form teams in the league right now. Leon Bailey, is arguably their most in form player. The young winger came off the bench against Brentford and got an assist, helping Unai Emery’s men forge a comeback win at Brentford last time out.

Bailey has registered an attacking return(2G 2A) in each of his last 4 appearances. In fact, since FPL GW9, he has blanked only twice, getting 3 goals and 4 assists in the process. No other Villa player has had more attacking returns in this period, including Watkins, who also has had 7 goal involvements.

Meanwhile, Villa’s FPL GW18 opponents, Sheffield United have conceded the Most Chances down the left side of their defence(81). Guess who is second on that list. Manchester United. The Midlands club take on Eric Ten Hag’s men in GW19.

Aston Villa’s fixtures are very enticing all the way till Gameweek 30. Therefore, it is a good time to double up on their attack. Bailey is definitely the best option, after Watkins at the moment!

Further Read: FPL GW18 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Simon Adingra vs Crystal Palace(A), £5.0m, TSB: 1.2%

Brighton failed to score in a league game for the first time in 32 matches, at the Emirates last week. However, they now head into a good run of games, after having played two of the traditional big six in the last 4 GWs.

Eight of Brighton’s next eleven matches have an FDR rating of 2. None of them have a rating of above 3. They take on Crystal Palace this week, who are one of the most out of form teams in the league. In fact, since GW8, only Burnley(4) have picked up fewer points than the Eagles(5).

Simon Adingra has the second best tally for big chances(6), behind Mitoma(8) so far this season. However, he is top for that stat since GW8. In fact, in this period, no Seagulls player has played more minutes than the Ivorian.

Believe it or not, he has started every fixture in both the Premier League and Europa League in this period. Amidst all rotation around the team, here is a guy who costs a mere £5.0 from one of the best attacking sides in the league, guaranteed to start!

But there is a caveat. Adingra will go to the AFCON and is likely to miss GWs 21 to 24. However, after he comes back, his fixtures are Sheffield United, Fulham, Everton, and Nottingham Forest. Therefore, you could choose to keep him on the bench in the period he is away, given his price point.

Further Read: Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON

Dan Burn vs Luton(A), £4.4m, TSB: 3.4%

Dan Burn miraculously returned from injury last week, and registered a 14 point haul in FPL against Fulham. He was also top for big chances and xG among defenders last GW.

Newcastle have great fixtures in the long run. Eight of their next thirteen matches have an FDR rating of 2. No team has kept more clean sheets than the Magpies(7) and only one team has conceded fewer big chances(24), that is Arsenal(21).

Dan Burn has the fifth best record for shots in the box(10) among Newcastle players this season. He is also fifth best for big chances(4) among his compatriots. Only Gordon, Almiron, Wilson, and Isak have a better record than the defender.

Romero(3) is the only defender with more goals than the Newcastle man(2) in the league. Burn also got a goal in the Champions League on top of his 2 so far in the Premier League.

Only Burnley(8) and Nottingham Forest(8) have conceded more goals from set pieces than Newcastle’s FPL GW18 opponent Luton(7) so far this season. Eddie Howe’s men take on Forest in Gameweek 19. In addition to this, Luton Town have conceded the most shots from headers(54) and most shots from set pieces(25) in the league. Another double digit haul is on the cards for big Dan Burn!

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Ezri Konsa vs Sheffield United(H), £4.5m, TSB: 2.0%

Ezri Konsa completes our list of differentials for FPL GW18. Aston Villa have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 matches. Two of their next three games are against Sheffield United and Burnley. The other is against Manchester United.

For starters, the Blades have scored the fewest amount of goals(12) so far this season. Burnley have scored the second fewest(16). Man Utd, meanwhile, have the joint fifth worst record for goals scored(18) this season. Therefore, chances of clean sheets in the three games during the festive period for Emery’s men is extremely high!

Of all Villa defenders, Konsa and Pau Torres are most likely to play every game from the start. Although Torres has scored 2 goals already, Konsa(1.47) has a significantly higher xG than the Spaniard(0.88). Both of them have had the same number of shots in the box(7).

Konsa is £0.2 cheaper, and money is at a premium right now in FPL. Pau Torres is also an injury doubt for the weekend. Although, considering the stats, Konsa might well be a better option, regardless.

Sheffield United(7) have the second worst tally in the league for goals conceded from set plays. Burnley(8) have the worst tally. As mentioned earlier, 2 of the 3 games in the festive period are against these two teams. Therefore, a big haul is definitely around the corner for Konsa!

Further Read: FPL GW18 Free Hit Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target

FPL GW18 Ultra-Differential Picks(<=1% TSB)

Alex Iwobi vs Burnley(H), £5.3m, TSB:1.0%

Alex Iwobi is one of the most in form players in the league right now. He has registered 4 attacking returns (3G 1A) in the last 5 Gameweeks. Only 4 players in the league have had more goal involvements in this period in FPL.

The Nigerian is top for xPts since GW13 in the league. In fact, in this period no team has scored more goals than the West London club(16). Between GW15 and GW17, only Andreas(141) played more minutes than Iwobi(131) among the attackers for Fulham.

Combine that, with Iwobi’s form, he is the best asset to own from Fulham in the next two Gameweeks, when they take on Burnley in FPL GW18, followed by Bournemouth.

Burnley are fourth worst in the league for big chances conceded(49). Furthermore, they are second worst in the league for goals given away(36).

Do bear in mind that Iwobi is another player who would go away for AFCON. However, if ever you are looking for a one week or a two week punt, Iwobi is your guy!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18

Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW18 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW18 Free Hit Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
FPL GW18 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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