Last gameweek was an absolutely shocking one for managers with most of the popular assets blanking. There’s also an upcoming fixture swing, and a lot of the current template assets have tougher fixtures to tackle during the GW13-18 period. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider not just for FPL GW12 but also in the long-term!
Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)
Anthony Gordon vs Bournemouth(A), £5.7m, TSB: 8.4%
Newcastle Attack Rank among all teams:
- Expected Goals- 2nd
- Big Chances- 1st
- Goals Scored- 2nd
An in-form player for just 5.7 million from the best-attacking team in the league at less than 10% ownership is a gift that is too difficult to ignore. If Callum Wilson is ruled out for GW12, Gordon could well play as an Out of Position(OOP) Forward. In GW11 vs Arsenal, Gordon played as a striker in the later stages of the game after Wilson was taken off and got the winning goal. In the midweek UCL game vs Dortmund, Wilson was taken off at HT due to injury, Gordon replaced him and played as a striker.
Even before playing as a striker, his numbers have been good this season. Gordon has 4 goals, 4 assists, and 54 points from 10 games. Only Neto(9) has more Goal Involvement than Gordon(8) among Midfielders at less than 6 million. Gordon’s underlying numbers are all also excellent this season- 10 Big Chance Involvements, 4.3 xGI. Up against one of the worst defenses in the league, Gordon could haul in GW12.
Bournemouth Defense numbers this season:
- Expected Goals Conceded- 19th
- Big Chances Conceded- 18th
- Goals Conceded- 19th
Eberechi Eze vs Everton(H), £6.1m, TSB: 3.2%
Eze was a slightly disappointing asset to own at the beginning of the season and he was out injured for a while from GW8 onwards. The young Eagles attacker made his return from injury in their 2-0 win over Burnley and got the assist for the last goal.
He’ll be a key player for Crystal Palace and will be on all set pieces too, Olise is also back in full training and will be back in the team soon which further improves Palace’s attack. The duo were simply unstoppable towards the end of last season after Roy took over from Vieira.
He’s also close to signing a new contract at Palace & would be highly motivated!
Set Play xGC Rank this season
- Everton – 12th worst
- Luton Town – 17th worst
- West Ham – 19th worst
- Bournemouth – 18th worst
All of the next four opponents for Palace are vulnerable from set pieces this season especially Luton, Bournemouth, and West Ham which can be seen from their set play xGC conceded rank so far this season. This bodes well for Eze who’ll be on most of the set pieces for Palace.
Bournemouth(19th worst), Luton(18th worst), and West Ham(17th worst) are also pretty bad in terms of total xGC conceded so far this season.
Further Read: FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Evan Ferguson vs Sheffield United(A), £6.0m, TSB: 7.9%
Evan Ferguson is fourth for goals per 90 in the league so far. This suggests that when he plays he more often than not scores. Given the fact that Welbeck is out injured for a while, Ferguson may well get a run of games from the start.
As we can see, Despite playing significantly fewer minutes, Ferguson is right up there for all the key stats among Brighton attackers. The young Irishman is 2nd for shots, top for shots on target, goals, and joint second for big chances among his compatriots.
Matchup alert: Sheffield United have conceded 50 chances through the middle which is the 2nd worst in the League so far this season. In GW10 a certain Nketiah scored a hattrick against Sheffield and this week could be the time for Ferguson to haul!
He’s also ranked 5th for expected points over the next three games based on the DraftHound predicted points model.
Further Read: FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Gabriel Martinelli vs Burnley(H), £7.7m, TSB: 5.1%
Martinelli and Arsenal are up against Burnley in GW12 who have the joint 2nd most goals conceded(27) and also have the 5th worst xGC in the league(20.77) so far this season. They’re also one of the four teams without a clean sheet this season.
Burnley have just an 8% chance of a clean sheet in GW12(Lowest in the league) and Arsenal have a whopping 55% chance of scoring 2+ goals which is the 2nd highest in the league this week.
In their last six games, Burnley have conceded 22 chances from their left flank(Joint 5th highest) and 27 chances from their central area(2nd highest) which gives Martinelli an excellent matchup!
Arsenal also have good fixtures after GW12 which makes Martinelli a decent option to hold even beyond FPL GW12!
Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Jamaal Lascelles vs Bournemouth(A), £4.0m, TSB: 4.4%
With Botman and Burn both ruled out for the upcoming weeks/months, Lascelles is nailed to start at Center back. Lascelles has played 90 minutes in all 5 Premier League since Botman got injured keeping 3 clean sheets in the process. Newcastle have conceded only 8 Big Chances throughout the season– Least among all the teams in the league. With the current defender crisis in FPL, A 4.0 million starting defender from one of the best defenses in the league is a certainly a good option. Over the last 5 GWs, Bournemouth are ranked 20th for xG and Big Chances in the league. Lascelles and Newcastle are likely to feast on another clean sheet in GW12.
Livramento at 4.3 million can be a more exciting differential with more attacking potential having played as a RW in the UCL game. But there is a slight rotation risk with Lewis Hall around. Lascelles is the more safer option.
FPL GW12 Ultra-Differential Pick(<1% TSB)
Mohammed Kudus vs Forest(H), £6.5m, TSB: 0.8%
In just his 2nd Premier League start of the season, Kudus showed glimpses of why he deserves to start regularly. He got a goal, an assist, and 11 points vs Brentford in GW11. Ahead of this great fixture run for the Hammers, Kudus can be a streaky ultra-differential punt.
In GW12, West Ham face a Forest side who are a good at home defensively but struggle away from home. Forest are ranked 18th for Non-Penalty xGC away from home with only Luton and Bournemouth worse than them.
Forest- Home vs Away Defense(All Stats per game)
- xGC- 1.15 vs 1.83
- Big Chances Conceded- 1.80 vs 2.67
- Goal Conceded- 1.0 vs 1.67
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12
FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW12 Injury News & Press Conference Updates of All Teams
FPL Gameweek 12 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW12 Tips & Preview – Best Defenders, Enablers & More
Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW12 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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Srinivasan S
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