Top FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Gameweek 6 was one of the strangest Gameweeks. There was a crazy swing in ranks between Saturday and Sunday for FPL managers. Those who had Newcastle players had the last laugh, while the rest had their joy cut short by the Magpies’ defenders. We are heading into the stage of the season where patterns slowly start to emerge. It is vital to spot those and transfer in the right players to climb up the ladder. In this blog, let’s take a look at our top FPL GW7 Differential Picks/punts(<10% TSB) to consider in your teams.

Link to all our FPL GW7 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Best GW7 Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW7 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Anthony Gordon vs Burnley (H), £5.6m, TSB: 3.8%

How can we not start our list without a Newcastle United player, after their 8-0 drubbing of Sheffield United? Anthony Gordon scored and assisted, along with 1 bonus point, in what was a 12-point haul at Bramall Lane.

Gordon now has 2 goals and 3 assists in the league in 6 matches this season. He has already surpassed his last season’s goal contributions (4 Goals and 0 Assists) and has equaled his best-ever tally of assists.

Eddie Howe’s men have the best run of games of all teams in the league for the next couple of months. Given the fact that Harvey Barnes is now out injured for this run of games, Gordon is nailed not only to start but also to play the vast majority of the minutes, unlike someone like Almiron or Wilson.

So far in the league, only Salah (8) has created more big chances than Gordon (5). The young Englishman also has registered the second most number of shots in the box (7) for Newcastle.

Barnes injury update

An update from Eddie Howe on the injury Harvey Barnes sustained at Bramall Lane on Sunday. “It’s an injury to his foot, just below the toe, and I think it’s quite a substantial injury. We’ve had the scans and now we’re waiting now a specialist opinion on what’s next and whether there’s surgery involved or not.”

Barnes injury update from Howe before the Carabao Cup game

Meanwhile, Newcastle’s FPL GW7 opponent Burnley have conceded the second most number of goals (13) this season. Only Sheffield United (17) have given away more.

The last time Gordon faced Burnley in the Premier League, he won a penalty, which was converted by Richarlison.

Note: Gordon is on four yellow cards and is one away from a one-game suspension, but that shouldn’t be a big issue as he’s a great long term option.

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Jarrod Bowen vs Sheffield United (H), £7.1m, TSB: 9.4%

From a player who hauled against the Blades to a player who is likely to haul against the same opponent, in FPL GW7. Jarrod Bowen scored his fourth goal of the season, at Anfield last week. That took his goal contributions tally to 5 ( 4 Goals + 1 Assist).

The Englishman has already registered two-thirds of his goal tally from last season. That is in spite of the Hammers facing three out of last season’s top 6 and Chelsea already.

No team has a better run of games in the long run than West Ham. 7 out of their next 11 games have an FDR rating of 2. These are the type of games in which Bowen thrives. He has scored against both Bournemouth and Luton already.

80% of Bowen’s attacking returns (12/15) last season came against teams with an FDR rating of either 2 or 3. 65% of his returns (19/29) came against such teams in the 2021-22 season.

Lastly, 70% (10/14) of his returns in the 2020-21 campaign were against these kind of opposition. As we can see, 10 out of the next 11 games for David Moyes’ men are against such teams.

Another thing in Bowen’s favour for FPL GW7 is the fact that no team has conceded more chances from the right flank (40) than Sheffield United. As we can see, that is exactly where the West Ham man operates!

Further Read: FPL GW7 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Carlton Morris vs Everton (A), Burnley (H), £5.5m, TSB: 4.4%

Well here is our first differential pick of the season for a player having a double Gameweek. Luton Town have scored 3 goals so far this season, and Morris has been involved in each of those goals (2 G 1 A). Truth be told, he is by far and away their only attacking threat.

If Luton were to get any chances or indeed goals, Morris is likely to be involved in one way or another. As we can see, he is way above everyone else on the charts for all the key attacking stats, including shots, shots in the box, big chances, and xG.

Meanwhile, the two opponents the Hatters face haven’t covered themselves in glory thus far this season. Burnley have conceded the second most number of goals thus far (13). Everton have the joint sixth-worst record for goals given away (10).

Morris is a good three-week punt. Therefore, he is the perfect transfer to make for managers looking to wildcard in GW9 or GW10, or for that matter, even GW8. However, if you don’t have a plan to wildcard soon, then he may be someone you could pass on!

Further Read: When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis

Top FPL GW7 Ultra Differential Picks ( ≈1% ownership)

Nayef Aguerd vs Sheffield United (H), £4.5m, TSB: 0.7%

Anyone who watched Newcasle’s 8-0 win at Bramall Lane last time out would have realised that the Blades have a blatant weakness from set pieces.

The Magpies scored twice from set plays, with both Botman and Burn scoring. To put things in context, the duo had 1 goal between them for Newcastle prior to facing Sheffield United.

Paul Heckingbottom’s men have given away goals from set pieces in each of their last 3 matches. This is further proven by the fact that they are the worst in the league for both chances conceded from set plays (38) and also shots conceded from headers (31). The Blades have also conceded the highest xG from set play this season(3.6)

That sounds like James Ward-Prowse set piece 101. The Hammers have already scored 2 goals from corners this season, one of them scored by Nayef Aguerd, against Chelsea. Their set play xG of 2.45 is the 5th highest in the league so far this season.

The Moroccan has already had 2 big chances so far this season. Only Matty Cash (3) has had more among defenders so far. Last season, only Perisic (6) and Schar (9) had more big chances among defenders, than Aguerd (5). We have to bear in mind the fact that the West Ham man played only 1595 minutes.

Further Read: FPL GW7 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Zeki Amdouni vs Newcastle (A), Luton (A), £5.4m, TSB: 0.3%

Burnley have been very unlucky so far this season. Despite playing well last week, they were undone by a moment of pure magic by Bruno Fernandes. One of the standout players for the Clarets last time out was Amdouni.

The Burnley man had two shots in the box last time out, with one of them being a big chance. Truth be told he should have buried the chance where he hit the woodwork.

The Swiss international is the talisman of sorts for Kompany’s men in the absence of the suspended (for one of the two games) Foster. Amdouni is top for shots, big chances created and xPts among his compatriots.

Burnley’s fixtures in the long run is extremely good. 8 of their next 13 games do have an FDR rating of 2. The Swiss international therefore can be the perfect 8th attacker in your squad.

Further Read: When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis

Abdoulaye Doucouré vs Luton (H), £5.5m, TSB: 0.5%

We have saved our best till the last. Doucouré has been one of the standout players thus far this season. The French midfielder has already registered 2 goals in the league.

Not just that, only Mbuemo (7) has had more big chances than Doucouré (5) this season among midfielders. The Cameroonian has taken 2 penalties already. So effectively no midfielder from open play has had more big chances the the Everton man.

Since Sean Dyche took over, Doucouré has had 7 goals and 2 assists, more than any of his teammates. Not just that, he has had 11 big chances in that time.

On paper, the Everton man seems to be a two-week punt. However, both West Ham and Brighton are vulnerable defensively too. The Hammers are second worst in the league for big chances conceded (23), and Brighton are seventh worst in the league (17) for the same. Therefore, the Frenchman is more of a five-week punt.

One last point. It was Doucouré’s wonder goal against Bournemouth at home last season that kept Everton up. There is gonna be a repeat of that fixture in Gameweek 8.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW7

When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis
FPL GW7 Scout Selection based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 7 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW7 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW7 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Vote for AllAboutFPL in the 2023 Football Content Awards 
FPL GW7 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW8

Link to all our FPL GW7 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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