Top FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The international break is finally over and Gameweek 5 is upon us. It has been an eventful start to the new season. Man City, Arsenal, Spurs, and Liverpool have all started amazingly well. While, Newcastle, Man Utd, and Chelsea have had poor starts. Oddly enough, it is these 3 teams that have a good run of fixtures coming up. As a result, their options can prove to be a difference maker, as you will find in this week’s list. In this blog, let’s take a look at our top FPL GW5 Differential Picks/punts(<10% TSB) to consider in your teams.

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including Fixtures/Players to target, Wildcard Drafts, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Transfer trends, Watchlist and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW5 Differential Picks ( ≈10% ownership)

Rasmus Højlund vs Brighton (H), £7.0m, TSB: 1.8%

Well, we get what you’re thinking. Højlund barely played 20 minutes and he straight away gets picked in differentials. Just, hear us out!

The Dane completely changed the game for Manchester United. He recorded an xG of 0.33. Only Rashford recorded a better tally. This is inspite of him playing only 23 minutes. On another day, he could have got himself a goal, and won a penalty, at the Emirates.

Six out of Man Utd’s next nine games have an FDR rating of 2. The three games that don’t have an FDR rating of 2 are all at home, where Ten Hag’s men are unbeaten for more than a year.

Meanwhile, Man Utd’s FPL GW5 opponents Brighton have conceded the fifth most number of big chances (13) so far this season. That is inspite of them having a great run of games.

In the first four game weeks so far, the forwards have had a field day against the Seagulls.

Gameweek	Player	xGI
1	Carlton Morris	1.14
2	Matheus Cunha	0.78
3	Michail Antonio	1.05
4	Alexander Isak + Callum Wilson	0.96

As we can see from the above graphic, in each of the matches, the opposition strikers have done well against De Zerbi’s men. This is also justified by the fact that they have conceded 54% of chances down the middle, the seventh worst tally in the league.

Further Read: When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis

Gabriel Jesus vs Everton (A), £7.9m, TSB: 2.4%

Another player who had a huge impact on the game off the bench at the Emirates last weekend was Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian scored the clinching goal in the game as Arsenal ran out 3-1 winners. In 15 minutes of action so far this season, Jesus has recorded an xGI of 0.86.

Last season for Arsenal, Jesus had the best xGI (20.9). That is inspite of him starting only 24 games. He by far, had the best xGI/ 90 for the Gunners last campaign.

Overall in the league last season, the Brazilian was 9th best for big chances (27), and 7th best for shots in the box (73). When he is in the team, he almost certainly gets chances, and more often than not delivers.

Meanwhile, Forwards have registered hauls against Everton in the last two GWs. Cameron Archer got 12 points in GW4 against the Toffees on his full debut. Sasa Kalajdzic came off the bench to score the winner in GW3 against Sean Dyches’s men.

Well if these points weren’t enough to convince you, here comes the cherry on top. Jesus has 8 goals in 9 league matches against Everton. That is more than he has registered against any other team. He averages a goal every 71 minutes against the Merseyside club.

Further Read: Teams and Players to Target From FPL Gameweek 5 and Onwards

Fabian Schär vs Brentford (H), £5.0m, TSB: 2.5%

Newcastle have had a difficult run of games to start the season. As a result, they are in the bottom half of the table with just 3 points on the board. Having said that, the Magpies have the sixth best defence in the league in terms of xGC (5.04).

Eddie Howe’s men have conceded only 5 big chances in 4 matches so far this season. Only Man City have given away fewer.

4 of Newcastle’s next 6 matches have an FDR rating of 2. This run of games scream out for clean sheets. Although, Brentford is a tricky fixture, the next 5 five games (from GW6 onwards) are against teams that are in the bottom 9 for xG.

Schar was top for xG (5.61) among defenders last season. He also had way more shots (56) and shots in the box (40) than any other defender.

In fact, in the last six seasons, only peak Matt Doherty has registered a better xG (6.16) than Schar. He too had the same number of shots in the box (40) as the Swiss international had last season. Disappointingly though, Schar’s numbers didn’t translate into points last season. Perhaps, this season it will and let us make sure we get on the train before the rest!

Further Read: FPL GW5 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Carlton Morris vs Fulham(A), £5.5m, TSB: 1.6%

Luton are one of only two teams in the league (the other being Burnley), to not pick up a single point in the league thus far. Admittedly, their fixtures haven’t been kind. The newly promoted club faced Brighton, Chelsea, and West Ham in their opening three games.

In those tough games, one player who has stood out is Carlton Morris. The forward registered a goal and an assist in the three matches. He is top for shots, shots in the box, xG, xA, and xPts, among his compatriots. He clearly is the the leader of Luton’s attack.

There are two reasons to be interested in an asset from Luton. One, they have a great run of games coming up. Two, they have a Double Gameweek coming up, in GW7.

Morris scored 20 goals and also got 7 assists in the championship last season. So, he is a safe bet if you are targeting the double GW.

Meanwhile, Luton’s FPL GW5 opponent Fulham have faced the most shots on target (33) this season, and also have the worst xGC (11.68) in the league. Oddly enough, Wolves have the second worst xGC, that is whom Luton face in Gameweek 6. Also the strikers facing Fulham have been getting lots of chances this season!

Further Read: FPL GW5 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas

Dominik Szoboszlai vs Wolves (A), £7.0m, TSB: 4.6%

If eye test were to be the only barometer to judge a player so far this season, Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai will be among the top three players. That being said, from an FPL perspective, he has only registered 1 goal and 1 assist.

Although he has registered only 19 points, the Hungarian is second best for baseline BPS (86), behind only Allison (88). This clearly suggests that if he gets an attacking return, he is likely to pick up bonus points.

Szoboszlai is joint second best for key passes (7) among Liverpool players. We have to bear in mind the fact that Liverpool have not only had tough fixtures to start the season, but also played two games with ten men.

Liverpool’s FPL GW5 opponent Wolves have the worst NPxGC (9.5) in the league so far this season. Given that Liverpool’s fixture ease in the next couple of months, we may get to see more attacking returns for Szoboszlai.

Oh, and he is a 90 minute merchant, which helps with European football about to begin!

Further Read: FPL GW5 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW5 Ultra Differential Pick ( <1% ownership)

Pedro Neto vs Liverpool (H), £5.5m, TSB: 0.4%

We have been here before, haven’t we? But hear us out. It is probably time for the Neto bandwagon to succeed, at long last. The Portuguese international has registered 3 assists in the last 2 matches. He has also played 90 minutes in all 4 matches so far. He probably is past his injuries, after all.

Pedro Neto is joint top for big chances created(4) so far this season. Furthermore, only Mo Salah as a better xA (2.22) than the Portuguese (2.17). He is also fifth best in the league for key passes registered.

The Wolves midfielder is top for crosses (23) from open play this season. Liverpool in the absence of Van Dijk have the potential to struggle in dealing with crosses.

Last season in the league, Jurgen Klopp’s men had the second worst defensive record on the road in terms of big chances conceded (58).

Although, this season, they only have the ninth worst record overall, we will have to bear in mind that some of the teams have played 3 away games already. Among teams that have played 2 away games, Liverpool have the third worst record for big chances conceded (6).

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5

FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Best FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW5 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW5 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis
FPL GW5 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Teams and Players to Target From FPL Gameweek 5 and Onwards
FPL GW5 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW8
FPL GW1-GW4 Stats Summary

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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