Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

After a phenomenal GW1, FPL has returned to normalcy in the next two Gameweeks. Gameweek 3 much like the previous week only had an average score of 44 points. We are nearing the end of the transfer window. We are also nearing an international break. Many managers are already using their wildcard or planning to use it post-international break. Now is the time to find those players who can be X-Factors in your squads. In this blog, let’s take a look at our top FPL GW4 Differential Picks/punts(<10% TSB) to consider in your teams.

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks ( ≈10% ownership)

Eberechi Eze vs Wolves (H), £6.4m, TSB: 10%

Eze has been one of the unluckiest players in the league so far. The Crystal Palace man has xPts of 13.48, however, he has only registered 7 points. The Englishman is top for key passes, xA, big chances created, and shots among his compatriots.

In fact, Eze (16) is joint top for shots in the league so far this season, with Haaland. Palace have a very good run of games coming up. 3 of their next 5 games have an FDR rating of 2. Each of their next 3 games are against teams that are in the bottom 4 for NPxGA so far this season.

Team	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9
Palace	WOL (H)	AVL (A)	FUL (H)	MUN (A)	NFO (H)	NEW(A)

Last night in the Carabao Cup, Palace were 2-0 down. However, Eze came off the bench and made a difference. The midfielder got two assists, as Palace ran out 4-2 winners.

Eze registered 10 goals and 5 assists last season. Each of his 10 goals came against teams with an FDR rating of 2 or 3. Three of his five assists also came against such teams.

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Jarrod Bowen vs Luton (A), £7.0m, TSB: 7.0%

West Ham pulled off the most surprising result of Gameweek 3, as they ran out 3-1 winners at the Amex stadium. Jarrod Bowen scored and assisted, registering 12 points in the process.

Meanwhile, Luton lost their second game by a 3-goal margin, at Stamford Bridge. In spite of playing only 2 games, the newly promoted club have the second-worst xGC (7.0) in the league, behind only Fulham (9.7).

The Hatters have conceded 31% of the chances from the right side, the fourth-worst tally in the league. That number is justified by right-wingers who have gone up against Luton so far this season.

Solly March registered 9 points in GW1. Meanwhile, Sterling registered 19 points in Gameweek 3. One can only imagine how much an in-form Bowen will register! After all, Bowen is the fourth-highest points scorer so far in FPL (23). He also has the 8th best xG in the league.

It is worth noting, however, that Bowen’s fixtures aren’t great post FPL GW4. Therefore, he is more of a one-week punt!

Further Read: FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Pape Matar Sarr vs Burnley (A), £4.5m, TSB: 2.9%

Pape Sarr has been one of the surprise packages of the season so far. The Spurs midfielder has started each of the 3 matches, and has already registered a goal and an assist.

Among players costing £6.0 or below, only Rodri(26) has registered more points in FPL than Sarr (15). Only Ayew has more shots in the box than Sarr, among such players.

Here is a disclaimer. Sarr is only a budget enabler. He is a viable option for those using their wildcard this Gameweek, as their fifth midfield option. He is also a viable option if you are looking to raise money from somewhere. However, that seems beyond on the realms of possibility at this point.

Sarr is joint top for shots in the box and shots on target among Spurs players, alongside James Maddison. He was also rested last night in the Carabao Cup game, it gives more belief as to whether or not he would start at Burnley.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Rico Henry vs Bournemouth (H), £4.6m, TSB: 6.8%

Rico Henry is one of four defenders to have created 2 or more big chances so far this season. He also has the second-best xA among defenders.

Brentford have conceded only 2 big chances so far this season. Only Man City have given away fewer(1). That is in spite of them playing two good teams in Palace and Spurs in the first 3 weeks.

Three of Brentford’s next four games have an FDR rating of 2. Bournemouth have the sixth-worst xG this season, while Forest have the fifth-worst xG. As for Everton, they are the only team to have not scored so far this campaign. This run of games screams out clean sheets for the Bees!

Henry was rested in last night’s Carabao Cup fixture. Ben Mee returned from injury in that game. This makes Brentford’s defence more stronger!

Further Read: Best FPL Forwards to Consider from GW4- Stats and Comparison

Pedro Porro vs Burnley (A), £4.9m, TSB: 4.2%

Spurs are one of two teams to have kept 2 clean sheets so far this season, along with Man City. The North London club have only conceded 2 goals. Once again, only Pep Guardiola’s men have given away fewer.

Pedro Porro was a star last season in FPL. He registered 3 goals and 3 assists in 13 starts. He also registered 5 bonus points in that time. However, this season he hasn’t yet lived up to expectations. Udogie has stolen the limelight.

In spite of starting only 2 out of the 3 games, Pedro Porro’s baseline BPS (56) is not far away from Udogie (62). He hasn’t yet registered an attacking return either. This suggests that if he gets one, it could be a big haul as he is likely to get maximum bonus points.

Spurs’ FPL GW4 opponents, Burnley showed a clear vulnerability down their left flank. This helped Matty Cash conjure up a brace last week, playing at Right Wingback. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Porro ends up on the scoresheet this week.

Here is a tip. Porro is admittedly more expensive than Udogie. However, Spurs, along with Chelsea are the teams with great fixtures with rotation-proof defenders (unlike Man City). Therefore, it wouldn’t be the end of the world, if you double up on their defensive assets.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW4 Ultra Differential Pick (<1% ownership)

Anthony Gordon vs Brighton (A), £5.5m, TSB: 0.9%

Newcastle would have been the most disappointed side in Gameweek 3, as they fell prey to Darwin Nunez’s long-awaited goal spree. The Magpies lost 2-1 against ten men of Liverpool.

Anthony Gordon was by far Newcastle’s most dangerous player on the field. He scored Newcastle’s goal and also registered 2 bonus points. That took his tally to 2 attacking returns (1G + 1A) in 3 matches this season, beating his last season’s tally for the Magpies.

Gordon has carried on from his tremendous form in the U-21 Euros in the summer. The midfielder registered 2 goals and an assist in the tournament and also won the best player award.

Meanwhile, Newcastle’s FPL GW4 opponents- Brighton are second worst in the league for big chances conceded (12), behind only Fulham (14).

After a difficult last couple of fixtures, Eddie Howe’s men head into a run of games which seem winnable. Gordon is top for xGI (1.8) among Newcastle players.

Besides, he is quite cheap when compared to their other attacking assets. As a result, at this moment in time, the young Englishman seems to be the best-attacking asset from the North East club.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell 
FPL GW4 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas 
FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups 
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL Forwards to Consider from GW4- Stats and Comparison
FPL GW3 Stats Summary
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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