Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

It has been an exciting start to the new FPL season. Erling Halland blanked in GW2. Mo Salah scored, but missed a penalty to make it a bittersweet moment for those that took the gamble with captaincy. With turn in fixtures for teams like Spurs, it becomes all the more important to pick the right player who can make a difference to your FPL squads. In this blog, let’s take a look at our top FPL GW3 Differential Picks/punts(<10% TSB) to consider in your teams.

Last week we had a 6/6 success rate for our differential picks with all six picks(March, Mbeumo, Awoniyi, Henry, Cash, and Luis Diaz all returning.

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Phil Foden vs Sheffield United (A), £7.5m, TSB: 9.1%

Phil Foden was arguably the standout performer from Matchday 2. The Man City man got the assist for Julian Alvarez’s winner against Newcastle United. The midfielder created a whopping 7 chances in the game, thereby picking up 3 bonus points, and registering a 9 point haul.

Foden is top for xGI (1.5) among Man City assets heading into their FPL GW3 fixture against Sheffield United. That is quite extraordinary considering the fact that no one was able to surpass Harland right from the outset last season.

In fact, his xGI is the tenth-best in the league. If we look at Foden’s heat map, it resembles that of a certain Ilkay Gundogan. Besides, in the absence of KDB, Foden seems to have taken up that chief creator mantle. In fact, in GW2 Foden created the most chances(7) among all players.

Meanwhile, last season in the Premier League, Phil Foden registered 5 attacking returns ( 2 Goals + 3 Assists) in the 5 starts he had against newly promoted clubs last season. As for the 2021-22 season, he had 3 attacking returns (1 G 2 A) in 4 starts against such clubs. As we know, the Blades are newly promoted, and Foden will be looking to continue his great run of form against newcomers.

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Destiny Udogie vs Bournemouth(A), £4.5m, TSB: 2.7%

Tottenham Hotspur produced the standout result of Matchday 2, beating Manchester United by 2-0. Destiny Udogie started the game and ended with 5 points against Eric Ten Hag’s men.

The Italian has registered 16 attacking returns ( 8 G 8 A) in the last two seasons playing in Seri A for Udinese. Having said that, he did play at left wing-back, as opposed to left-back.

Nonetheless, he does have the fourth-best xG(0.49) among defenders this season. That is behind only Chilwell (0.5), Varane (0.66), and Estupinian ( 0.79). Furthermore, he is also fourth highest for touches in the final third (52).

Spurs have a tremendous run of games coming up. 6 of their next 8 games have an FDR rating of 2. Their FPL GW3 opponents Bournemouth conceded 31% of the chances down the right flank of their defence. That is the fifth-worst tally in the league. We know that is exactly where Udogie operates!

Further Read: Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season

Eddie Nketiah vs Fulham(H), £5.5m, TSB: 6.1%

If someone had told you at the start of the season that Nketiah would be the top points scorer from Arsenal after two weeks, you wouldn’t have believed them. But, the forward is the joint top scorer in FPL from the Gunners, with 13 points.

Make no mistake, Eddie Nketiah is a short-term pick. As soon as Jesus is back, the Englishman will probably find himself on the bench again. However, he may not be back until after the international break. Therefore, Nketiah is a very good two-week punt!

The Arsenal Forward has 7 goals and 3 assists in his last 11 starts for Arsenal. Four of his last 5 goals in the league have come at the Emirates Stadium. Two of them, against Manchester United- Arsenal’s opponents in Matchday 4.

Nketiah is top for NPxG (0.82) among Arsenal players. Meanwhile, Fulham have the worst xGC in the league so far. The caveat is that Joao Palhinha is back from injury.

However, despite his presence, the Cottagers still had the worst xGC(72.3) in the league last season. In short, Fulham are the team to target for big returns! Fulham also don’t have center back Ream(suspended) who is an important player for them.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Ruben Dias vs Sheffield United(A), £5.5m, TSB: 6.6%

Manchester City are the only team yet to concede a big chance this season in the league. The champions are the only team to have kept clean sheets in both of their matches. Consequently, they also have the lowest xGC in the league.

Man City have a run of games that scream clean sheets. 4 of their next 5 games have an FDR rating of 2. With Stones out injured, Laporte on the verge of leaving, the competition for places have reduced in defence at Man City. Dias, seems to be the safest pick from their defence.

Although there is a case to be made for Akanji, he offers very little in terms of goal threat. Ruben Dias had the second best xG (1.34) among Man City defenders last season.

In the 2021-22 season, he did get 2 goals and 5 assists, with 141 FPL points. Therefore, there is more upside to Dias than any of the other Man City defenders, barring Stones, who is injured.

Key Stats of Man City’s upcoming opponents

• Sheffield United have the second lowest xGC (0.95) so far, behind only Burnley who have played only once (against Man City)
• Nottingham Forest scored the fewest goals (11) away from home last season
• Wolves were the league’s lowest goal scorers last season (31)
• Fulham have scored only 1 goal in their last 6 visits to the Etihad

It is safe to say that clean sheets are on the horizon for Pep Guardiola’s men. It is time for FPL managers to feast on them by tasting the Dias dish!

Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Yoane Wissa vs Crystal Palace(H), £6.1m, TSB: 9.5%

Yoane Wissa has been one of the best assets so far in FPL. With 20 points in two GWs, Wissa is the third highest points scorer, behind only his compatriot Mbeumo (23), and Solly March (24).

The Brentford forward is the third most transferred in player heading into FPL GW3. No wonder, given the fixtures the Bees have coming up. Indeed, 4 of their next 5 games have an FDR rating of 2.

Wissa has the second best tally for shots in the box (9), behind only Edouard (10). Furthermore, the DR Congo international has the fourth best NPxG (1.42) in the league.

Wissa has scored one goal in his Premier League against Palace already, in 4 matches. That goal came in last season’s fixture at Selhurst Park, a game that ended 1-1.

One of the questions that many FPL managers could have is whether Wissa is a better option than Mbeumo. Our answer is two fold. One, managers are in the hunt for forwards more than midfielders. We’re stacked in midfield.

Two, given the fixtures the Bees have coming, it won’t be a bad idea to even double up on the Brentford attack. Thomas Frank’s men have the second best xG in the league so far (5.7), behind only Brighton (6.89).

Further Read: Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season

Moussa Diaby vs Burnley(A), £6.6m, TSB: 9.0%

Aston Villa were probably the one team to have completely contrasting results in GWs 1 and 2. Unai Emery’s men were battered in GW1 by Newcastle. The Villains, though, did the same to Everton as they beat the Toffees 4-0. A game in which we are trying to figure out how Diaby blanked.

As we can see, Diaby was second for xPts against Everton. However, he was the only attacker who blanked. Even Duran, who came off the bench got himself an attacking return. The Frenchman was extremely unfortunate, FPL managers can be rest assured that points are round the corner.

So far this season, Diaby is top for xA, NPxG, xPts, shots, shots in the box, shots on target for Aston Villa. In fact, he is 14th best in the league for xGI. That doesn’t seem like a big deal.

However, Diaby falls in the category of someone who hasn’t yet delivered in terms of points, but all stats suggest that he will deliver. Besides, if we take a look at Villa’s fixtures, Diaby is a long-term investment, as opposed to someone like Mitoma or March. 7 of Villa’s next fixtures have an FDR rating of 2.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3

Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 3 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW3 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW3 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Best Chelsea FPL Assets to Target ahead of FPL Gameweek 3
FPL GW3 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell Analysis
Best FPL Defenders/Gabriel Replacements for FPL GW3
FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW2 Stats Summary
FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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