The Norwegian Robot somehow managed to blank in the second GW of the season and we are already in with a Captain blank in GW 2 of the Premier League. After a very disappointing week, we are back with our captaincy metrics to help you decide on the best captain pick to start your season with.
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the record is 1/2 with Haaland hauling in GW1 and blanking in GW2.
Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW3 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW3 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Manchester City’s Erling Haaland tops the polls with 70% of the votes. He’s followed by Chelsea’s Nicholas Jackson (3%) and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (2%). The candidates list is rounded up by Mbeumo (2%) and Ben Chilwell (2%).
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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 3 Captain picks
Note: Data from the first two games of the season, generally we use the last six games data but we are only in GW3 of the new season which has reduced the stats range
Bryan Mbeumo tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 6 Shots Inside the Box, 4 Big Chances in total and an xG total of 3.26, as he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Nicholas Jackson comes in behind Mbeumo for Underlying Numbers. With 6 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 1.33.
Erling Haaland, with 8 Shots Inside the Box, 1 Big chance, and an xG total of 0.99, takes the third spot.
Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka comes fourth behind Haaland with 5 Shots Inside the Box, 0 Big Chance, and xG total of 0.43.
Ben Chilwell gets the last place with 3 Shots Inside the Box, 1 Big Chance, and an xG of 0.39.
Further Read: FPL GW3 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Note: Data from the first two games of the season, generally we use the last six games data but we are only in GW3 of the new season which has reduced the stats range
Brentford have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison in the last 2 games. A total of 24 Shots Inside the Box and 9 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 6.15, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Chelsea come in behind Brentford, with 20 Shots Inside the Box, their 6 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 3.85.
Manchester City come behind Chelsea with 24 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 3.08.
Arsenal take the last spot with 19 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 2.85.
Further Read: FPL GW3 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW3
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.5 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal take the first spot, with a 91% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 55% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Chelsea and Manchester City are behind Arteta’s men, with a 91% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 52% chance of scoring more than 2 goals.
Lastly, Brentford come in behind Chelsea and Manchester City, with a 73% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 20% chance of scoring more than 2 goals, respectively.
Further Read: Best Chelsea FPL Assets to Target ahead of FPL Gameweek 3
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 3 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 74%, while his Projected Points stand at 8.3 for the week.
Nicholas Jackson has an Anytime Returns Projection at 48%, and the Projected Points at 5.5 this week, giving him the second spot.
Jackson’s teammate Ben Chilwell has an Anytime Returns Projections at 59% and Projected Points at 5.0, which puts him in third place.
Bryan Mbeumo has an Anytime Returns Projections at 47% and Projected Points at 5.2, which puts him in tied third place with Chilwell.
Lastly, Bukayo Saka has an Anytime Returns Projection of 45% while the Projected Points stand at 5.2 pushing him to the last spot.
Further Read: Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 3 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Surprisingly, Nicholas Jackson comes out to be the best option this week, topping the table with a CRF value of 8.
Jackson is followed by Erlind Haaland and Bryan Mbeumo who take the second place with a CRF value of 10 each.
Ben Chilwell takes the fourth place with a CRF value of 12.
And lastly, Bukayo Saka takes the last spot with a CRF value of 15.
Readers should note that it’s the third gameweek of the season and two weeks of stats might not mean as much, but this method has been working nicely too. I am personally captaining Haaland still over Jackson, but Jackson feels pretty safe now.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3
Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 3 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW3 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW3 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Best Chelsea FPL Assets to Target ahead of FPL Gameweek 3
FPL GW3 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell Analysis
Best FPL Defenders/Gabriel Replacements for FPL GW3
FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW2 Stats Summary
FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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