FPL GW3 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW3 Scout Picks blog. Our fantastic scout @FPLDaggaFC (Do follow him on Twitter) is back with his Scout picks for Gameweek 3, as always our Scout picks are backed up by eye test, stats, and analysis.

Last season our scout picks won 21.5 vs 15.5 against the Official FPL Scout picks. This season we have taken a 2-0 lead heading into GW3, outscoring the Official FPL scout in both the gameweeks so far. Link to our GW2 Scout Picks blog

Scout Picks	GW1	GW2
AllAboutFPL Scout Picks	78	62
Official FPL Scout Picks	76	46

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW3 Scout Picks

FPL GW3 Scout Picks- Goalkeeper

Ederson was an FPL troll last season and wasn’t considered heavily prior to the new season. However, he’s registered two back-to-back clean sheets in the first two games of the season. Manchester City are also the only team yet to concede a big chance this season in the league. The champions also have conceded the lowest xGC in the league, only 0.6 across two games.

Ederson and Man City are up against Sheffield United who have registered only an xG of 1.02 in two games, 22 individual players have accumulated more xG than Sheffield Utd so far this season.

Man City also have the highest odds of clean sheet(53%) amongst all teams this week and there’s a high chance that Ederson makes it three clean sheets in a row!

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FPL GW3 Scout Picks- Defenders

William Saliba and Arsenal are up against Fulham who are struggling for goals this season. Fulham have registered an xG of only 1.43 in the two games and have had only two big chances. Arsenal are at home as well in GW3 and have a 41% chance of clean sheet which is the 3rd highest amongst all teams. Saliba is also good from a bonus points perspective, he got all three bonus against Palace in GW2 and is 3rd amongst all defenders(51) for BPS so far this season.

Chilwell is one of the most attacking fullbacks in the league this season, he’s second amongst defenders for xGI(1.04) so far this season, only behind Estupinan(1.27). Interstingly, Chilwell will be up against Luton Town, the same team Estupinan faced in GW1 and returned an assist(xA of 0.86, xGI of 0.97).

Luton conceded a whopping 4.1 xGC and 6 big chances in GW1 vs Brighton, they also conceded 13 chances from their right flank which is where Chilwell operates and he could be in for a huge haul!

Estupinan doesn’t need much of an explanation, the Brighton full-back has recorded a goal and two assists in the first two games already and will be up against West Ham at home. Brighton have scored 8 goals in the two games and have recorded the highest xG(6.89) amongst all teams in the league so far, We could see a goal fest once again and Estupinan should be involved in them!

Further Read: Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW3 Scout Picks- Midfielders

Mbeumo recorded a whopping 16 points in GW2 vs Fulham and has now scored 3 goals in two games registering 23 points(2nd highest in the league). Although he might not get a penalty every game he’s still a proven goal-scorer and is the main man for Brentford in Toney’s absence.

Mbeumo’s NPxGI(Non-penalty goal involvement) is a good 1.95 which is the 2nd highest in the league only behind Bruno(2.12). He’s also guaranteed to play 90 minutes in most games whereas Thomas Frank generally subs out Wissa around the 75th minute mark!

Sterling is an interesting choice in our scout picks this week, he was really good for Chelsea vs West Ham in GW2 and recorded the most number of touches in the penalty box(16) than any other player in GW2. Luton(H) is a really good fixture for Sterling and Chelsea’s attack as the Blues look to register their first win of the season. Beyond GW3 as well Chelsea have a great run of fixtures and Sterling could be a good long-term investment!

Sterling Heatmap & Positioning vs West Ham

Phil Foden is our 2nd Man City attacker in the scout picks this week, Foden created a whopping 7 chances in GW2 vs Newcastle (xA of 0.53) and had an xGI of 1.2 in the first two games which is the highest amongst Man City players.

He seems to be a guaranteed starter at least for the next few games and could be an excellent choice to consider against a poor Sheffield United side in GW3. The Blades have conceded 13 chances down their right flank so far this season, which is higher than their chances conceded through the right(9) and center(11) giving Foden an excellent matchup as well

Read more about Foden in our FPL GW3 Differentials blog

Marcus Rashford has had a quiet start to the season having blanked in both games so far. However, he’s playing at home against Nottingham Forest in GW3, Forest have been far more defensively stable this season but Man United at home are a really good side and are now unbeaten at Old Trafford in 30 consecutive home games in all competitions. This could well be the game, Rashford registers his first goal contribution of the season.

Odegaard is our final midfield option this week and the Arsenal captain is up against Fulham who have the highest xGC conceded in the first two games of the season(6.5). He also took the penalty against Palace instead of Saka, although it is not clear if Odegaard is now the designated penalty taker or if it will be decided on the pitch based on the situation.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW3 Scout Picks – Forwards

Nicolas Jackson has been highly unfortunate not to have scored in the first two games of the season. He has great underlying numbers which can be seen below and is up against Luton who’ll be once again playing away from home. This fixture could very well be the one in which Jackson scores his first PL goal.

Nicolas Jackson numbers:

• Three big chances in GW1 vs Liverpool, the joint-most amongst forwards in GW1
• 4th highest xGI(1.37) amongst forwards so far
• Great fixtures for Chelsea starting GW3 till GW8
• GW3 vs Luton who conceded 6 big chances & an xGC of 4.1 in GW1 vs Brighton

Read more about Jackson in our FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats blog

Haaland blanked in GW2 which happens very rarely these days. He’s however the no-brainer captain choice playing against a promoted side this week.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell Analysis

Full FPL GW3 Scout Picks

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3

Top FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 3 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW3 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW3 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Best Chelsea FPL Assets to Target ahead of FPL Gameweek 3
FPL GW3 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell Analysis
Best FPL Defenders/Gabriel Replacements for FPL GW3
FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW2 Stats Summary
FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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