DGW34 is done and dusted and we are fast approaching the GW35 Deadline. There are only four gameweeks left in this season but there is still a lot of action left with both GW36 and GW37 being a double gameweek as well. In this blog let’s take a look at the best lower-owned Differential Picks(<10% TSB) for GW35 and beyond who could enable you to catch up ranks.
Link to all our FPL GW35 blogs including Fixtures to target, Double gameweek news, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Top FPL GW35 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)
Eberechi Eze vs Spurs(A), £5.5m, TSB: 5.9%
Roy Hodgson has made things clear ever since he took over in GW29- Making Eze a first-choice starter and also the focal point of their attacks. Since Roy took over, Eze has started 6/6 games and completed 90 minutes in all the games compared to just 1 start in 8 games before that. Eze has repaid his faith with 4 goals, 1 assist, and 42 points from these 6 games averaging 7 FPL points/game. Only Salah has more Goals than Eze among Midfielders during this time.
Eze’s underlying numbers have also been good during this period- 17 shots, 10 Shots on Target, xGI- 3.6
Key Stats- Eze
Since GW29, Only Haaland(12) and Watkins(11) have more Shots on Target than Eze(10). This makes him on Top for Shots on Target among mids during the same period- Ahead of the likes of Salah, Rashford, Saka, etc.
Spurs Defense in Shambles:
Spurs have conceded 15 goals from the last 4 games(Highest among all teams)- 3 goals vs Bournemouth, 6 goals vs Newcastle, 2 goals vs Manchester United, and 4 goals vs Liverpool. They have conceded 18 Big Chances during this time which is also the highest. This makes them comfortably the worst defensive side in the league. Don’t be surprised if Eze and Palace pile up on Spurs wounds.
Julian Alvarez vs Leeds United(H), £6.0m, TSB: 2.4%
Julian Alvarez started both games in GW34 in the absence of Kevin De Bruyne and did reward his owners with a 14-point haul. With Real Madrid Champions League semifinals game just 75 hours after this game, Pep may rest any of his star attackers which could mean Alvarez getting another start. With the league’s best-attacking side against arguably the worst defensive side in the league, it is worth taking the risk at this stage of the season despite Pep Roulette. Since GW28, Leeds have conceded the Most Big Chances(27), Most Goals(25), Worst xGC(16.42) in the league.
Alvarez last 4 starts in the league:
- GW34 vs West Ham- 2 points
- GW34 vs Fulham- 1 goal, 1 assist, 12 points
- GW29 vs Liverpool- 1 goal, 1 assist, 10 points
- GW25 vs Bournemouth- 1 goal, 1 assist, 11 points
Tip: City’s game is the first kickoff in GW35. So we are likely to get some early team news/leaks. It is worth taking the risk considering how explosive they can be against Leeds. For example, if we get news Alvarez does not start and Mahrez, he is also worth a punt as he averages 0.85 Goal Involvement per start since the World Cup. Alvarez could also be a wild captaincy punt if we get news Alvarez starts and Haaland doesn’t.
Mahrez Stats per start since the World Cup break:
- Expected Goal Involvement- 0.6
- Goal Involvement- 0.85
- FPL Points- 5.62
FPL Gameweek 35 Captaincy Poll
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 27/32 “returns record” this season. Do vote in this week’s captaincy poll and this week’s captaincy metrics will be done based on the top five players in the captaincy poll
Jamie Vardy vs Fulham(A), £9.1m, TSB: 2.0%
Leicester City legend Jamie Vardy has once again become an important figure for the Foxes in their relegation battle under new manager Dean Smith. In GW34 against Everton, he registered a whopping xG of 2.11 scoring a goal in a 2-2 draw. He now has 2 goals and an assist in the last three games(155 minutes) since Dean Smith became Leicester’s manager. Leicester’s attack is now centered around Vardy and his goals are key for the Foxes to avoid relegation this season. Vardy also has an exciting linkup with James Maddison who assisted his goals against Everton and Leeds.
“His legs are still there, his brain is certainly still there.”
Dean Smith has belief in Jamie Vardy’s ability to add more goals to the Leicester City team to help survive relegation
Dean Smith on Jamie Vardy
Fulham are also without influential CB Tim Ream who is ruled out for the remainder of the season after fracturing his arm. Before the Liverpool game, he had made 79/79 possible league appearances under Silva. 63% of chances conceded by Fulham in the last six games are from the centre which is the highest in the league and this is where Vardy will operate giving him an excellent matchup.
Dominic Solanke vs Chelsea(H), £5.6m, TSB: 4.0%
Solanke has been heavily featured in our blogs over the past few weeks and yet is owned by only 4% of managers. The Bournemouth forward is in good form and registered another goal against Leeds United in GW34. Since GW29 he has registered 3 goals and 3 assists in seven games which shows his great goal-scoring and assist potential.
Solanke stats since GW29:
- Shots- 23(3Rd overall)
- Shots inside the box- 22(2nd overall)
- Shots on Target – 9 (5th highest amongst forwards)
- Big Chances – 6 (6h highest amongst forwards)
- xG: 3.56(6th highest amongst forwards)
- xGI: 5.3 (3rd highest amongst forwards)
- Goals + Assists: 6(Joint 4th highest)
- Key passes: 8 (3rd highest amongst forwards)
- Big chances created: 2 (3rd highest amongst forwards)
- xA: 1.79 (3rd highest amongst forwards)
Chelsea’s defence is not great and a home game for Solanke and Bournemouth means the Cherries are the favorite in this game. After GW35 the cherries have Palace(A), Man United(H), and Everton(A) till the end of the season which are decent fixtures too.
Callum Wilson vs Arsenal(H), £7.0m, TSB: 5.4%
8 goals in April and it’s safe to say Callum Wilson is one of the in-form players at the moment in the Premier League. Since GW29, In just 7 appearances(2 starts) Wilson has bagged 8 goals and picked up an assist and has been involved in 9 of the 22 goals Newcastle have scored during the period. Wilson has scored 54 points during this time which makes Joint Top for FPL points alongside Haaland.
Wilson stats since GW29:
- Shots- 16
- Shots inside the box- 13
- Shots on Target – 10 (Joint 4th highest amongst all players)
- Big Chances – 6 (3rd highest amongst all players )
- Goals– 8(1st among all players)
- xG: 3.96(4th highest amongst forwards)
- Goals + Assists: 9(Joint highest)
He’s up against Arsenal who have been defensively poor since the injury to Saliba. Since Saliba’s injury(GW28 onwards) Arsenal have conceded an xGC of 13.62 in seven games which is the sixth worst in the league. They have also not kept a clean sheet during the period and conceded 13 goals. Before Saliba’s injury, Arsenal were conceding 1.1 xGC/90 which has gone up to nearly 2.0 xGC/90 now.
In the eight home games since the restart, Newcastle have registered a whopping 34 big chances in just 8 games which is more than 4 big chances a game!
Wilson and Newcastle will have a double in GW36 and FPL managers will be heavily considering Wilson for the double next week. By going a week earlier you could have a stronger gain from Wilson if he continues his goal-scoring run vs Arsenal! Wilson might not start all the 3 games in GW35, and GW36 combined but he is capable of causing havoc coming off the bench as seen in recent weeks.
Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW35(<1% TSB):
Gibbs White vs Southampton(H), £5.5m, TSB: 0.6%
Forest are 18th in the league and are among the 3 teams that are on 30 points only separated by Goal Difference. The home game against Southampton is probably their most important game of the season to keep their hopes of staying up in the league and they would want their Talisman to step up. Forest have only 30 goals from 34 league games this season, but Gibbs White is the Talisman of this team and is involved in 13 of these 30 goals(4 goals, 9 assists). 22 of Forest’s 30 goals this season have come at Home- which suggests they are clearly a better-attacking side at home.
Gibbs White has been in good form in recent weeks with 4 attacking returns from the last 4 games.
Gibbs White stats since GW31:
- Matches– 4
- Shots– 7
- Goal Involvements– 4
- Big Chance Involvements– 3
- xGI– 2.4
Southampton’s defensive woes-
- Gibbs White’s GW35 opponent Southampton have kept only 4 clean sheets this season which is the lowest among all the teams in the league. This does reflect their position in the league as they are 20th in the league and are likely to get relegated.
- Southampton have conceded 72 shots inside the box from the last 6 games which is the 2nd highest among all the teams in the league during that period.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW35
Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW35
Top FPL Gameweek 35 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW35 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW35 Scout Selection- Top Picks with Stats and Analysis
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL GW35 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Gameweek 35 Preview Video
If you prefer video content, here’s our FPL GW35 video covering GW35 key talking points, Players to Target for GW35, double gameweek planning, approaching the last four gameweeks, captaincy options, and more. Timestamps are added for easy viewing as well!
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Srinivasan S
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