With a very short turnaround for Gameweek 19 and two teams having Double Gameweeks(Chelsea and Fulham), Captaincy picks becomes a little interesting. Are you going for Haaland as the safe pick? Or trying out a Double Gameweek option in Mitrovic? In this blog let’s analyze the Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks and see who is the best amongst them based on our captaincy metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 14/17 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 302 points(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12)
Link to all our FPL GW19 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW19 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Double Gameweek 19 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW19 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
The top five players going into this week’s captaincy metrics based on our captaincy poll are Mitrovic vs Leicester(A) & Chelsea(H), Salah vs Brentford(A), Haaland vs Chelsea(A), Mason Mount vs Man City(H), Fulham(A) and Rashford vs Bournemouth(H).
Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 19 Captain picks
Haaland once again tops the individual numbers but not by a big margin, Mitrovic is second and close to Haaland with only 0.26 xG separating the duo. Salah is 3rd with an xG of 4.34 which itself is a really good number and would have been enough to top this table in the past but it shows how tight it is at the top for the popular captaincy choices. Haaland also tops the big chances with 9 big chances in 6 games, Saland has 8 and Mitrovic has 7 in the last 6 games. Mitrovic tops the shots inside the box column with 31 shots inside the box, and Haaland is second with 23 shots inside the box.
Mount’s numbers are disappointing which shows why he might not be a great captaincy option, especially with two tricky games against Man City and Fulham.
Further Read: FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Man City dominate the individual numbers with an xG of 12.54 in the last six games, Liverpool who have been much better since the restart are second with an xG of 11.48. Fulham are third above the likes of Man United and Chelsea, interestingly Mitrovic has close to 50% of Fulham’s xG which shows he’s the talisman of the Fulham attack. Chelsea have registered only 5.8 xG in the last six games which puts them last in the table. Their poor numbers and ordinary performances further takes the appeal out of Mount and Chelsea attackers.
Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW19
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least One goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.5 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Since it’s a double gameweek the fixture difficulty gets interesting. Man United and Brentford have good single fixtures which are seen in the odds, Man United have a whopping 90% odds of scoring one goal and 50% chance of scoring 2+ goals. Liverpool meanwhile have 86% chance of scoring one goal and a 38% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
Fulham and Chelsea have doubles although it’s a tricky double for both teams which has resulted in odds only close to the likes of Man United and Liverpool. This is generally not the case in other double gameweeks when the odds of double gameweek teams would clearly be higher than that of single gameweek teams in most cases.
Haaland and Man City who generally dominates the odds are last this time because of a tricky away game to Chelsea. This by no means could indicate Man city keeping quiet, especially after the draw against Everton. Both City and Haaland will come out all guns blazing to win the game and avoid slipping further in the title race.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 19 Scout Picks With Stats and Justification
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Mitrovic outrightly dominates the projections with a points projection of 8.6 and an anytime returns of 67%. Salah is second surprisingly even though it’s a single gameweek for him, he has a 66% chance of anytime returns and a points projection of 7.4. Once again Haaland who generally dominates the projection is last this time with Mount and Rashford finishing above him.
Further Read: FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 19 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Finally, Haaland is dethroned from the top with Mitrovic and Salah both coming out joint top with a CRF of 10. Haaland finishes third with a CRF of 12, and Rashford is fourth with a CRF of 13. Mount is last with a CRF of 15 despite a double gameweek.
Author’s note:
Although both Mitrovic and Salah finished joint top, we would prefer Mitrovic over Salah as the best FPL Gameweek 19 Captain choice based on our metrics because of the double gameweek as he has a higher chance of hauling.
Mitrovic is one yellow card away from suspension but he has successfully managed not to get a yellow card in the last three games and hopefully he gets away without a yellow card against Leicester in the first game of the double gameweek for Fulham.
Marco Silva On Mitro: “He’s the main penalty taker, and he will be there again to take the next one.”
We shouldn’t be worried about the Mitrovic penalty miss with Silva confirming he’ll take the next one. More on Mitrovic-headed matchups here on our scout picks blog.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW19
Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Predicted GW19 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW19 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW19 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 19 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
Thanks for reading the ‘FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks’ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs and updates. Also, follow our 110,000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 19 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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