Should you Triple Captain Haaland in FPL DGW20?

Hi, it’s Alex, AllAboutFPL’s Man City correspondent, here to talk about my perspective on when we should use the Triple Captain chip on Haaland. If you’d like more Man City content from me, you can find me on Twitter @4lex_mcfc!

So, were finally at the point in the season when City have a Double Gameweek, and the question on everyone’s mind is: should we Triple Captain Erling Haaland?

First and foremost, I have to say that I don’t think it’s a matter of if we Triple Captain Haaland, but a matter of when. We haven’t seen an FPL asset like Haaland ever and in my opinion it would be illogical to use the Triple Captain chip on anyone else this season (so long as Haaland stays fit). The questionwe should be asking ourselves is: do we Triple Captain Haaland in DGW20, DGW23, or another DGW in the future?

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW20 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Should we Triple Captain Erling Haaland?

Schedule

Confirmed Man City Double Gameweeks:

• DGW20 – Man United (A) + Tottenham (H)
• DGW23 – Aston Villa (H) + Arsenal (A)

Potential Man City Double Gameweeks:

• GW29 – Liverpool (H) + one of: West Ham (H)

• GW34 – Fulham (A) + one of: West Ham (H)/Brighton (A)

• GW37 – Chelsea (H) + one of: West Ham (H)/Brighton (A)

*Potential DGW info and more from the always incredible Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin on Twitter)

**The potential DGW including Bournemouth (A) is no longer possible after City lost in the League Cup to Southampton

MCI vs AVL+ars in GW23

Possible future DGWs
GW29: MCI vs LIV + bou/WHU
GW34: MCI vs ful + bou/WHU/bha
GW37: MCI vs CHE + bou/WHU/bha

BOU vs MCI is PP if MCI reach EFL Cup Final
MCI vs WHU is PP if either club reach FA Cup QFs
BHA vs MCI is PP if either club reach FA Cup SFs

— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) January 8, 2023

When we look at the potential DGWs, we need to understand the likelihood of each happening.

City drew Arsenal in Round 4 of the FA Cup, meaning the games against West Ham and Brighton are not as likely to be postponed as many would anticipate. Ben Crellin has the Brighton fixture at a 56.07% chance to be rescheduled. The West Ham fixture has a higher chance to be rescheduled, though there is no figure for that at the moment.

All of this is to say, even if the potential DGWs look juicy on paper, they are not guaranteed to happen – especially not all three.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW20

Should we Triple Captain Haaland in FPL DGW20 or DGW23?

Let’s start with the known quantities.

On paper, City’s fixtures in DGW20 look difficult. Playing a Derby at Old Trafford is always a tough test, and following that is a game against City’s Achilles heel: Spurs. While these fixtures are difficult, both defenses have not been performing all that well. There’s an argument to be made that these fixtures are some of the toughest for City all season and there’s an argument to be made that these fixtures are easier than meets the eye.

I fall somewhere in the middle. I think these two fixtures are certainly more difficult than the average PL opposition, but they are certainly not as difficult as playing against Arsenal (who City face in DGW23). Based on xGA, United are the 4th best PL defense this season and Spurs are the 5th best. Though, when we watch them, it seems United get bailed out by De Gea a lot and Spurs look less than secure at the back. Plus, it’s City we’re talking about – the best attack in the league. I mean, remember what happened last time they faced United? Haaland scored 23 FPL points (3 Goals, 2 Assists, 3 Bonus Points).

When we look at FPL DGW23, City’s fixtures look a bit better, comparatively. Aston Villa at home is a prime fixture (Villa have the 11th best xGA), though Arsenal away is worse than either fixture in DGW20 (Arsenal have the 2nd best xGA).

In my opinion, the fixtures just about balance out. We know that Haaland and City can score against any team, so basing our decision on fixture strength could be useless – especially when the comparison is this close.

After fixtures, we should turn to xMins and intangibles.

There is no doubt in my mind that Haaland has higher xMins in DGW20 than DGW23. With the title race this close, both games are a must-win, and there is adequate time for recovery between both games. Haaland should play 80+ minutes against both United and Spurs, unless he gets injured. In DGW23, things are a bit more uncertain. I fully expect Haaland to play 80+ against Arsenal, but against Villa (the fixture we would really be looking to target) Haaland’s xMins are lower.

As it stands, City have a full week between GW22 away to Tottenham and DGW23 home to Villa. Then, there are only three days before City face Arsenal away. If this stands, we could expect Haaland to start both… however there’s a catch.

If City and Arsenal draw in their FA Cup game (sandwiched between GW21 and GW22), they will play again between GW22 and DGW23. If this happens, Haaland’s xMins against Villa plummet. It would become a prime fixture for rotation, with Alvarez potentially starting instead of Haaland.

If we consider the fixtures about equal, on average, then DGW20 is much safer when it comes to xMins.

However, there’s one final piece we must consider – the intangibles. At the moment, City’s squad is in flux, Pep is constantly tinkering with a new 2-3-5 in possession system. I think many have overblown the effect of this on the attack, but I will say that the City attack is not at its most potent right now. Does that mean everything will be fixed by DGW23? I don’t know.

All-in-all, I think the difference between DGW20 and DGW23 is marginal, but the known quantities of DGW20 are more favorable than the potential issues we may face ahead of DGW23 (potential FA Cup replay, potential for Haaland to get injured, etc.).

If I had to choose between the two, I’m using my Triple Captain in DGW20.

Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 20 Players To Target | FPL DGW20

Should we Triple Captain Haaland in FPL DGW20 or a future DGW?

Whether you agree with me on that last point or not, the question becomes: do we Triple Captain Haaland in our favored *confirmed* DGW or wait for a potential DGW in the future?

The answer to this, in my opinion, comes down to what type of FPL manager you are.

With any of the potential DGWs in the future, there are a few issues…

For one, City could get booted out the FA Cup early, meaning there may be zero DGWs for City in the future (unlikely, but possible). (City have already lost their best potential DGW after losing to Southampton in the League Cup)

Second, even if City do get those DGWs, Haaland could get injured between now and then, meaning we’ll have to use the Triple Captain on someone else.

Third, even if City do get those DGWs and Haaland is fit, the schedule at that time is so congested that he likely won’t play as many minutes as he does in DGW20 or DGW23 (especially if City avoids the FA Cup replay against Arsenal pre-DGW23).

All this is to say, there are a lot of unknowns. Even if City get the juiciest DGW possible of Fulham (A) + West Ham (H), we don’t know how many minutes Haaland will play. Yes, he should start every game when fit, especially with this title race. However, we simply can’t say that with any certainty this far in advance.

This is why it comes down to what type of FPL manager you are:

Do you take the known quantity of today? Or do you be greedy and bet on the unknown, potentially better, quantity of tomorrow?

In the scenario, you bet on the latter, and Haaland does get injured, do you feel confident enough to use your Triple Captain on another asset somewhere along the line?

Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 20 Players To Target | FPL DGW20

Conclusion

All-in-all, there is no straightforward answer, in my opinion.

Personally, I will most likely be using my Triple Captain on Haaland in FPL DGW20. I am more of a conservative manager, who likes to take the known quantities of today over the unknown quantities of tomorrow.

With the potential issues that could arise in the future, I feel best using the chip now (though this may change ahead of the DGW20 deadline).

My advice: take in the information and decide based on what you feel best with. Some people will want to play it safe, like myself, and others will like to risk it for the potential doubles in the future. Neither is the right answer we will only know that with hindsight.

I hope this helped your decision-making! Best of luck to everyone in DGW20, Do follow me on Twitter, @4lex_mcfc

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW20
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW20 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Double Gameweek 20 Players To Target | FPL DGW20
Should you Triple Captain Haaland in FPL DGW20?(Special Analysis)
FPL DGW20 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Haul Potential
FPL GW20 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) To Consider | FPL GW20 Preview
FPL GW20 Scout Picks with Stats and Analysis
FPL Mid Season(GW1-GW19) Review- Stats, Analysis & Key Notes
Predicted GW20 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW20 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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