We are at that time of the season. Games come thick and fast. Another Gameweek is upon us already. It seems like there are many problems to deal with from an FPL perspective. As a result, it is important to get those transfers spot on. It is vital to not overlook long term prospects before making transfers. In this blog, we will provide you with our Top 6 FPL GW19 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification and detailed analysis.
Link to all our FPL GW19 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW19 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change
FPL Gameweek 19 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Tim Ream vs Leicester(A), Chelsea(H), £4.5, TSB:1.3%
Fulham is one of two teams with a double in FPL GW19, along with Chelsea. The Cottagers definitely have the better set of fixtures when compared to Graham Potter’s men. Tim Ream has been ever present in the Fulham . Since GW12, the American is the 7th best for points among defenders in FPL.
Leicester City have the worst home record in the division. They have created only 6 big chances at the King Power stadium, they have an xG of a mere 7.3. Only Wolves and Everton have scored fewer than the Foxes in their own backyard.
Meanwhile, Chelsea, after a good performance against Bournemouth, went back to normalcy at Forest. Potter’s men struggle on the road. They have the worst record on their travels, among teams in the top half of the table. In fact, their tally of 8 goals in the 8th worst in the league. The Blues have netted only 4 goals in their last four away games, only 3 teams have registered fewer in that time.
Ream not only has clean sheet potential, he also has a goal threat. Chelsea have given away 6 goals from set pieces this season, only 5 teams have given away more. One of whom is Leicester City, who have conceded 7. In fact, since the start of last season, the Foxes have given away 26 goals from set plays. That is by far the worst tally in the league.
Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Ollie Watkins vs Wolves(H), £7.1, TSB: 2.4%
Aston Villa have been a transformed team under Unai Emery. The Villains have 3 of the last 4 matches, beating teams like Manchester United and Spurs in the process. Watkins has registered a goal and 2 assists in this run, and didn’t feature in one of the games.
Watkins has an attacking return in each of his starts under Emery. He has 4 goal involvements ( 2G 2A) in 4 matches since the new manager came into the house. The Forward has had more shots in the box, more big chances than any of his teammates in last 4 GWs, despite missing one of the games.
Emery’s men arguably have the best set of fixtures in the league. Given the fact that 3 of the next 4 are at home, Watkins’ potential is increased that much more. 5 of his 7 attacking returns in the league this season have come at Villa Park.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 19 Scout Picks With Stats and Justification
Harvey Barnes vs Fulham(H), £6.8, TSB: 1.6%
Leicester were really unlucky to come away with Nothing at Anfield last time out. Having had a tough couple of fixtures, Leicester have a better run of games coming up.
The last time Leicester had this kind of run, Barnes scored 4 goals in 5 matches, before the World Cup break. The midfielder is top for shots in the box(26), and big chances(7) among his compatriots.
The Foxes take on Fulham in FPL GW19. Marco Silva’s men have the worst NPxGA in the league. Furthermore, they are fifth worst for % of chances conceded down the right flank of their defense. As we know, that is exactly where Barnes operates.
Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Eddie Nketiah vs Newcastle(H), £6.5, TSB: 2.9%
Before GW17, we were all worried about the fact that Arsenal might struggle in the absence of Gabriel Jesus. But Eddie Nketiah has more than made up for the Brazilian’s absence. He has not only held the ball up well, but he has scored 2 goals in 2 matches, claiming 2 bonus points in the process.
Nketiah could be the forward that we have been searching for. FPL managers have opted for the likes of Wilson, Darwin, Martial, and Havertz. But here, we have a £6.5 forward playing for the best team in the league. The Forward has had 2 big chances in the last two matches, joint most among his teammates.
Arsenal are one of the teams who could double soon, with that fixture being against Everton at home. Therefore, it is necessary to have three players from the North London club before that.
Nketiah- Key Stats
- 4 goals in his last 3 starts at home
- 11 goals in his last 11 starts at the Emirates
- 11 goals from a mere 16 shots on target
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 19 Scout Picks With Stats and Justification
Crysencio Summerville vs West Ham(H), £4.3, TSB: 1.1%
Leeds produced an impressive performance against in-form Newcastle to pick up a point. After meeting the most in-form team, Jesse Marsch’s men will now take on the most out-of-form team in the league, West Ham, in FPL GW19. Indeed, the hammers have lost each of their last five games.
Summerville was in excellent form prior to the World Cup break. He had netted in each of the 4 games prior to the break. He had registered an assist too in one of the games, making it 5 attacking returns in 4 matches. However, he didn’t start any of the two games post the pause due to a slight injury. He did make his comeback against Newcastle last time out and could well start the West Ham game.
As far as fixtures go, it doesn’t get much better than what Leeds have on the horizon. Given the fact that there is so much greenery in the fixture list, it is a wise idea to have a Leeds attacker in your FPL teams!
Leeds were top for goals in the last 4 games prior to the World Cup. Only 3 teams had more big chances and xG in that time. During this time Summerville was second-best in the league for goals and big chances. Only his teammate Rodrigo had a better tally, he of course is £2.0 more than what Summerville costs.
Further Read: FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 19 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)
Kaoru Mitoma vs Everton(A), £4.9, TSB: 0.3%
Kaoru Mitoma scored one of Brighton’s 2 goals against Arsenal last time out. On another day he could have scored another, as it was ruled out for the tightest of offsides. Nonetheless, the youngster showed once again that he is Brighton’s best route to goal.
Mitoma has 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 Premier League starts. Since he came into the starting eleven, in GW14, the Japanese international has had the joint most number of big chances among his compatriots. He is also joint top for goals and only Trossard has had more shots in the box.
Each of Brighton’s next 6 games are against teams that are in the bottom for defensive records in terms of NPxGA. Mitoma and co would be looking to exploit the apparent weakness in the teams that they face in the next 6 weeks. In case Brighton have a double in GW20/ GW21, it will be against either Palace or Bournemouth, which makes this fixture list that much better.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW19
Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW19 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Predicted GW19 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW19 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW19 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 19 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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K K Anirudh
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