FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview

FPL is back with a bang as a lot of key players ended up delivering. The template team so to speak was a success. Games come thick and fast at this stage of the year as the next gameweek is upon us in two days. As a result of which it is important to make calculated transfers to climb up the ladder. In this blog, we will provide you with our Top 6 FPL GW18 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification and detailed analysis.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW18 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 18 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Anthony Martial vs Wolves(A), £6.7, TSB: 5.5%

Manchester United produced a stunning performance which swiped aside Nottingham Forest by 3-0. At the forefront of that win for Ten Hag’s men, was Anthony Martial. The Frenchman scored the second goal of the game and looked the presence up front which United have been craving for all season.

Martial had 2 shots in the box, both on target with one of them being a chance, against Forest last night. Only Rashford had more shots in the box than the Frenchman. The striker came off in the 65th minute, which means he is more or less guaranteed to start the next game.

Meanwhile, Wolves played their first game under their new manager in GW17. Despite playing against a team that struggles for goals the Midlands side record an NPxGA of 1.6- the seventh worst out of the 18 teams that have played so far.

Lopetegui’s men conceded 60% of their chances through the center of the goal. As we can see from the above graphic, that is exactly where Martial operates.

Quick Fact

The last time Martial started a league game against Wolves at Molineux, he scored in a 1-1 draw in the 19-20 season

Mason Mount vs Nottingham Forest(A), £7.5, TSB: 7.1%

Chelsea were one of the teams which every FPL managers had their eyes on. This is because of the upcoming double in Gameweek 19. The Blues came up with a very good, attacking display against Bournemouth. Mason Mount was at the heart of most things which the London club did. The Englishman was deployed as a Number 10 in a new look 4-2-3-1 formation.

Mount registered his 6th attacking return of his season following his goal against the Cherries last night. Notably, all of his attacking returns have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Ten of Mount’s eleven goals last season came against bottom-half teams. Five of the six that he netted in the 2020-21 campaign also came against such teams. As a result of which we can say that there is a pattern forming here.

Four of the next eight fixtures for Chelsea are against teams in the lower half of the table. Two other games are against Fulham, who are essentially a bottom-half team, and with the worst xGC this campaign.

As for Chelsea’s opponents in GW18- Nottingham Forest- they recorded the third-worst xGC in Gameweek 17. Besides, the have the second-worst tally for xGC this season, after Fulham.

Further Read: Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18

Dejan Kulusevski vs Aston Villa(H), £8.0, TSB: 5.5%

Dejan Kulusevski was one of our differential picks last week, and he was extremely unlucky to not come away with an assist. That is perks of being an FPL manager, unfortunately! But as we have continuously stated, Spurs look far more likely to score with him in the side than without him.

The Lilly Whites have scored two or more goals in 6 of the 8 games the Swedish international has begun. Whereas, without him, they have achieved that feat in just 3 out of the 8 games.

As we can see from the above image, Aston Villa have the second worst for NPxGA and Big chances conceded since Unai Emery took charge. This was more clearly evident in their most recent encounter, with Liverpool. Indeed, no team had a worse xGC than Villa (3.57). The Villains conceded a whopping 7 big chances against Jurgen Klopp’s men.

Another glaring weakness in Villa defense has been down the left flank of their backline. With Buendia operating in the left wing, he tucks in leaving Digne 2 v 1 often at the back. We saw Liverpool exploiting that time and again. In fact, since Emery took over, Villa are 6th worst in the league for % of chances given away down the left flank.

Last Time Out

The last time these two teams met, Spurs ran out 4-0 winners at Villa Park, back in April. Kulusevski registered a goal and an assist, to go with 1 bonus point, as he registered a 12-point haul.

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Kai Havertz vs Nottingham Forest(A), £7.7, TSB: 3.7%

While Mount looked effervescent as always, Kai Havertz was the real star of the show in Chelsea’s 2-0 win over Bournemouth. The German scored one, set up the other as he continued his rich vein of form. He now has 6 goals in the last 3 games he has played in (2 goals against Costa Rica for Germany, a hattrick against Brentford a week back in a friendly).

Graham Potter changed to a back four, deploying a 4-2-3-1 formation against the Cherries. This made Chelsea look much better going forward. Having registered an xG of 1.23 per game in the first 8 matches under Potter, the Blues had an xG of 1.58, the highest they have had since GW12.

Kai Havertz has been Chelsea’s most likely goal scorer since the new manager came into the house. As we can see from the above graphic, no player even comes close to the German in terms of shots in the box, big chances and xG.

Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest are fourth worst in the league for % of chances conceded down the center of the goal. Havertz, therefore, has the numbers as well as the opposition in his favor to keep his excellent form going, as we edge closer to Chelsea’s double Gameweek.

Further Read: Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18

FPL Gameweek 18 Ultra Differential Picks(<1% TSB)

Philip Billing vs Crystal Palace(H), £5.3, TSB:0.8%

Billing is the joint top points scorer along with Tavernier in FPL from Bournemouth this season. The midfielder has registered 61 points so far, with 4 goals and an assist. He was very unlucky not to get a penalty against Chelsea in his last match.

As we can see from the above graphic, among players priced £5.5 only 4 midfielders/ attackers have a better points tally. He will be looking to add to his tally against Palace this weekend.

Meanwhile, Palace had the second worst xGC last time out as they lost 3-0 to Fulham. The Eagles also had two players sent off in that game. Suspensions to Tomkins and Mitchell means that Nathaniel Clyne is likely to play again. Viera’s men have a terrible record with him on the pitch. In 8 matches in which the fullback has played 40 or more minutes, Palace have given away 15 goals and kept 0 clean sheets.

The East London club concede 55% of their chances down the center. Only four teams boast a worse tally than that. As we can see from Billing’s shot map, that is largely where his shots come from.

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Matt Doherty vs Aston Villa(H), £4.6, TSB: 0.5%

Doherty is the second ultra differential pick for this Gameweek. We know that Spurs are one of two teams with a double in GW20. As a result of which it is a viable option to have multiple assets from their team. Matt Doherty presents a high-risk, high-reward option for FPL managers.

As stated earlier, Aston Villa have an apparent weakness down the left flank. We saw Trent Alexander Arnold get forward time and again last time out. Doherty has 1.03 shots in the box per 90, the second-best among Spurs defenders.

The former Wolves defender has started three games so far in the league, Conte’s men have kept two clean sheets in those games. With Emerson Royal down the pecking order, Doherty might get a run of games in the starting eleven for the North London club.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18

FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18
FPL GW18 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW18 Scout Picks with Justifcation Based on Stats
FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Predicted GW18 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Players close to a suspension ahead of FPL GW18

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