FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW3 Deadline

Gameweek 2 turned out to be a nightmare for FPL managers. Haaland was outscored by Kane, and Liverpool’s defense blanked again. Plus, there was a customary blank from Salah in GW2. FPL is well and truly back with a bang folks! We are back with our set of players with minimal ownership who could give you the edge in your mini leagues. In this blog, we look at the top 6 differential picks ahead of FPL GW3 deadline.

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

FPL GW3 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Ivan Toney vs Fulham(A), £7.1, TSB: 7.2%

Of course we had to start of by putting in a Brentford player. Indeed, the Bees picked up the stand out result last week by beating Manchester United by 4 goals to nil. Ivan Toney picked up two assists in the game and was the key orchestrator in the bashing.

The Brentford striker registered 12 goals and 5 assists last season to go along with 139 FPL points last season. 7 of his 12 goals came against teams that finished in the bottom 7 last season. 3 of his next 5 matches are against such teams, and the FPL GW3 fixture is against a newly promoted club in Fulham.

Quite extraordinarily, 10 of the Bees’ next 13 fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. These are the games in which the Bees did well last season. The fact that Toney is just £7.1 makes him an enticing option up front.

Fulham were really fortunate to have not conceded a goal or two to Wolves last time out. The Midlands side missed two big chances, one of them being a sitter by Neto. Toney and co showed efficiency in front of goal last week, they would be looking to do likewise against a nervy Fulham side at the back.

Ivan Toney- Key Stats

• Only West Ham(7) and Leicester(7) have conceded more big chances than Fulham(6) so far this season
• Only KDB(1.23) had a better xA than Ivan Toney(1.19) in the first two gameweeks
• 12 goal involvements (7 goals 5 assists) in last 13 matches
• Has got bonus points in both matches so far, James, Cancelo, and Trippier, the only other players to have managed that

Further Read: FPL GW3 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide

Marc Cucurella vs Leeds(A), £5.0, TSB: 8.6%

Chelsea was involved in the game of the weekend last time out, as they played out an exciting 2-2 draw against Spurs. Marc Cucurella got an assist on his home debut, when his corner led to Koulibaly’s opener at the Bridge. The Spaniard was one of the best players on the pitch for Chelsea against the North London side.

Cucurella has the third best xA among Chelsea players so far, that is despite him playing a significantly less number of minutes. Meanwhile, 7 of Chelsea’s next 10 fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Given the fact that the Blues possess one of the best defenses in the league, now is the time to double up on their backline.

Cucurella has been a bonus magnet in FPL since joining our league. He was top for bonus points among players outside the top 4( Trent, Robbo, James, Cancelo) last campaign.

Another interesting observation from last week was that the Spaniard is on-set pieces for Chelsea. Chelsea’s next 4 opponents were ranked 15th, 16th, 11th, and 13th, respectively for chances conceded from set plays last season. Furthermore, the same set of teams are ranked 11th, 19th, 16th, and 18th, respectively for xGC so far this season.

Meanwhile, since Tuchel took charge of the Blues(17), only Manchester City(19) has won more games on the road. On top of that, no team has conceded fewer goals on the road than Chelsea in that time. As a result of which, the chances of Tuchel’s men shutting out Leeds are very high.

---

---

James Maddison vs Southampton(H), £8.0, TSB: 5.4%

Leicester City have had a difficult start to the season. After letting a two goal slip at home in GW1, they came unstuck against a fired up Gabriel Jesus on GW2. However, one player who has stood out for the Foxes is James Maddison. The Englishman has returned in both matches, getting a goal and an assist.

Leicester City do have a favorable run of games up until Gameweek 13. 8 out of their 11 matches in that time have an FDR rating of 2. One of the other games is against Manchester United. The less about them, the better. Therefore, now is a good time to pick an asset or two from the Foxes.

Meanwhile, Leicester’s FPL GW3 opponents- Southampton are the fifth worst for xGC so far this season. The Saints have also conceded the second most number of shots in the box so far. Plus, they have given away the joint most number of goals.

James Maddison- Numbers Game

• Has scored or assisted in each of his last 6 league starts (5 G 4 A)
• Top for goal involvements (22) among English midfielders since start of last season
• Has 4 goals and 1 assist in his career against the Saints. Scored in both league games last season
• Half of Maddison’s goal contributions came against teams in the bottom 7. He averaged 6.4 points per game in such matches.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz

Emerson Royal vs Wolves(H), £5.0, TSB: 2.7%

A lot of FPL managers are keen to bring Perisic into their teams following his impressive cameo against Chelsea. While, he may start and there is a big upside on bringing him in, there is still doubts over his fitness. Sessegnon started and played well against Chelsea too, had the only big chance in the first half too. Therefore, there is no guarantee that Perisic will play majority of the minutes!

Meanwhile, Emerson Royal has started both games and played over 80 minutes in both. There has been very little sign of Doherty or Spence so far. As a result, Emerson Royal is for now nailed to start at wing-back. He is also £0.4 cheaper than Perisic. As a result of which, he is a viable alternative to the Croatian.

Royal has had two assists so far this season, bettering his last season’s tally already. The fullback is also third best among Spurs players for BPS so far this season. Only Kulusevski and Hojberg have had more. Furthermore, Kulusevski(9) is the only Spurs player to have had more touches in the box than Emerson(7). In fact in the entire league, Dalot is the only defender to have had more touches in the box than the Spurs man.

Wolves have showed vulnerability down their left flank in the first two matches. Aaronson caused havoc in Gameweek 1, while Alexander Mitrovic won his penalty through a foul by Ait-Nouri. They have conceded 33% of the chances through this side, the fourth worst in the league.

Three of Tottenham’s next four fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. If you are a manager looking for a £5.0 defender, Emerson Royal is a no-brainer!

Further Read: FPL GW3 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 3

Wilfried Zaha vs Aston Villa(H), £7.0, TSB:7.6%

We are still trying to figure out how Zaha managed to score only one goal at Anfield last time out. Indeed, the Ivorian had as many as three big chances against Jurgen Klopp’s men. He only took one of them. Zaha’s xG of 1.33 was more than any other player last week. Overall, the Crystal Palace man has the fifth best xG in the league.

Zaha has 9 goals in his last 15 appearances in the league. His last four goals have got Palace a total of 7 points. Zaha has been continuously improving in the last three seasons. He has registered 120, 136, and 150 points respectively, in FPL.

In the 2021-22 season, the Ivorian scored 14 goals and had 2 assists in all. 6 of those goals came against teams in the bottom. He averaged 4.8 points against these teams.

Aston Villa has looked shaky defensively. With Diego Carlos now being out injured, it makes Steven Gerrard’s men even more vulnerable at the back. Zaha will be looking to exploit that.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips

FPL GW3 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

Rico Henry vs Fulham(A), £4.5, TSB: 0.9%

Brentford’s performance last week was so impressive that we had to put in a second player in our differentials. In fact, it is more to do with the fixtures they have as mentioned earlier. There is a high chance of the Bees keeping a lot of clean sheets.

In the 2021-22 season, Rico Henry scored three goals. Jan Bednarek(4) was the only defender among those who costed £4.5 or below to registered more. He had 4 big chances in all, only 7 defenders had more in the entire league.

So far this season Rico Henry has had 10 points in FPL, getting an assist in the process. Brentford’s FPL GW3 opponent Fulham have shown a vulnerability down their left flank. Pedro Neto had a feast last time out, he did everything but score, however. In Gameweek 1 Luis Diaz was having a field day down that flank, he also hit the crossbar.

If you like our content do consider supporting us by contributing to the website. ALLABOUTFPL is run by the community and for the community. All our content is and will always remain free.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3

FPL Gameweek 3 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 3 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW3 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW3 Deadline
FPL GW3 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL GW3 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 3
Best £4.5-5.5 Midfielders- Bailey Replacements Ahead Of FPL GW3
SPITCH Matchday 3 Preview | Top Picks, Tips & Team Reveal
FPL GW3 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
Predicted GW3 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL Stats Of Shithousery | GW2 Team Of The Weak
FPL GW2 Review Based on Eye Test & Stats | FPL Trybe
FPL GW3 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
How Premier League Footballers fared as FPL Managers in GW2?
FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW3 Preview Stream on our YouTube Channel

In 60 mins we cover WC drafts, Leon Bailey replacements, what to do with Robbo, Captaincy, and Differentials, players, and fixtures to target. Do give it a watch and subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Thanks for reading the “FPL GW3 Preview” blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 80,000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 3 of the 2022/23 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering player comparisons, differential picks, transfer trends, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, eye test report, fixture analysis, captaincy metrics, FPL GW3 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

FPL Gameweek 3 FPL Deadline Countdown

Login and set your team for FPL GW3 now!