Eye-Test Based Player Watchlist For FPL Gameweek 4

Hi, this is Ishaan (Twitter: @hobbes3103, FPL 21-22 OR : 3754). This is the FPL Gameweek 4 blog in a series of weekly articles I’ll be writing for All About FPL where I’ll pick some players from the previous gameweek(s) who I feel are poised to make an immediate impact in the upcoming gameweek, basis a dive into their statistical data as well as their standout performances from an eye-test perspective.

These players could be differentials, could be template picks or could be somewhere in between but the idea of this weekly series is to basically try & identify the next potential haul before the community at large identifies it.

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

ANALYSIS OF FPL GAMEWEEK 3 PICKS:

• Reece James: ✖
• Ilkay Gundogan: ✅
• Wilfred Zaha: ✅
• Ivan Perisic: ✅
• Pascal Gross: ✅
• Gabriel Jesus: ✅

GW3 Blog: Eye-Test Based Player Watchlist For FPL Gameweek 3

FPL Gameweek 4 Player Watchlist Based on Eye-Test

MOHAMMED SALAH

There are already many captaincy analysis articles out within the community which favour Salah as their top choice for the armband this week,  hence I’ll keep this discussion brief to highlight a few additional points that caught my eye.

Bournemouth have generally been poor defensively: Bournemouth were the team that have conceded the most chances, the most big chances, and the most shots in the box this past weekend. In fact, Bournemouth have so far conceded 7 goals ( League rank: 19th ) & 48 shots ( League rank: 19th ) this season whereas Liverpool have taken 52 shots ( League rank: 2nd )

Most chances were conceded through the left i.e Salah’s flank: As the below graphic shows, versus Arsenal, more of the play was through Saka’s side than through Martinelli’s side.

Furthermore, Bournemouth have conceded 48 crosses from the left flank versus just 26 crosses from the right. They have also conceded more shots & chances from the left flank than the right & I fully expect Salah to take advantage of their perceived weakness on Bournemouth’s left.

Extremely favourable odds: Liverpool are given the best odds to score 2.5+ goals in GW4 & it’s fair to say that were that to be the case then Salah would definitely be amongst the returns.

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HARRY KANE

Harry Kane became the all-time leading Premier League goalscorer for a single club and 4th in the all-time Premier League list when he notched his 185th goal for Spurs this past gameweek v Wolves.

He sure looks inspired after also nodding in the late equaliser v Chelsea and I predict him to return vs Nottingham Forest in GW4, who have been just woeful defensively as the following stats show :

• Most shots conceded: 61 ( Ranked bottom in the league )
• Most shots in the box conceded: 35
• Most shots on target conceded: 23
• Most xGC: 6.33 ( Ranked bottom in the league )

These defensive stats make for abysmal reading & Kane, who ranks 3rd in the league amongst ALL players for xGI (Expected Goal Involvement) and 5th for xG (expected Goals), will surely be salivating at the prospect of coming up against the defensive trio of Mckenna-Cook-Worrall.

Many of the shots conceded by NFO at the weekend were in central areas:

and Kane’s heatmap v Wolves show him to be have been mostly inside the penalty box ( 4 Shots in the Box and 1 Header hitting the post ) instead of drifting across the pitch as a creator, so it can be fairly assumed that NFO will be giving up a lot of shots in central positions with Kane being on the end of them.

Kane leads amongst all Spurs players for xG as well as xA. The odds say he is the third favourite to score anytime and the FFHub points prediction tool have Kane as the highest-scoring forward this week.

With Pep saying that going ahead Haaland can play only once a week, it could be a shrewd move for  FPL managers to bring in Kane for Haaland in GW4 and get a one-week headstart ahead of the curve.

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LEANDRO TROSSARD

Brighton have started this season very well and look set to continue their fine form in GW4 versus Leeds. In their past 4 meetings, Brighton have won 3 and drawn 1 scoring 4 goals with only 1 goal conceded.

While the FPL community is mostly looking at Pascal Gross, it is another of Brighton’s attackers who has caught my eye.

In my pre-season article, I had mentioned how Trossard had ended last season excellently as the LWB in Graham Potter’s 3-5-1-1. This season starting in that same role and formation, he seems to have taken it up a notch.

Trossard amongst all midfielders is 4th for Shots and 5th for SiB (Shots in Box). Just in the last match, he had 5 SiB & 2CC ( Chances Created ). Amongst all Brighton attackers he has 9 goal attempts which is 50% more than the next highest Brighton attacker.

If his underlying stats from LWB as above weren’t enough justification to bring him into the team, Potter’s newest formation change makes Trossard an even better option.

This was evident across many instances during the match versus West Ham this past weekend.
In the 1st half notice, Trossard’s deep positioning both when Brighton are OUT OF possession & IN possession. There are atleast 2-3 Brighton players ahead of him. Positioning: Withdrawn

Compare that to his positioning in the 2nd half, after Estupiñán came on and Trossard pushed up with Brighton now in a back 4. In the first image which is the buildup to his goal, he has an empty pitch in front of him to run onto. In the second image, Trossard and Welbeck are the only 2 BHA players present in the box with others arriving behind them. Positioning: Advanced

With his flexibility to play across the attacking positions in Potter’s fluid tactical systems, now would be a good time to transfer Trossard into our teams.

As per FFScout’s Fixture Ticker below, Brighton are right on top for the next 5 gameweeks and Trossard is expected to be amongst the points, most immediately in GW4 against a team Brighton enjoy playing against – Leeds.

Do vote in the captaincy poll for this week below. The captaincy metrics blog from @AK_FPL1 will be posted based on the votes. The metrics had a 30/38 record last season and so far has a 3/3 record with Haaland topping the metrics in GW3.

OLEKSANDR ZINCHENKO

Arsenal in the first three gameweeks has been a side looking totally in sync with the vision of the manager & it is reflected by the fact that they have picked up full points in every match.

Defensively, they have looked outstanding and are rock solid in many of of the following stats this past gameweek / gameweeks 1-3 with league position mentioned :

• xG conceded                                  (0.28): 1st    /   (1.95 ) : 1st
• Open Play Goal Attempts              (4) : 1st        /    ( 18 ) : 3rd
• Big Chances conceded                   (0) : 1st       /     ( 3 ) : 2nd
• Minutes per big chance conceded      : 1st        /     ( 95.3 ) : 2nd

A huge part of this new look defensive stability is Oleksandr Zinchenko. A tactical tweak by Arteta this season has seen Zinchenko regularly dropping into a double pivot with Thomas Partey in the build-up. This modification has seen Zinchenko often found in the half-spaces in midfield instead of wide on the touchline where a fullback would usually be. It’s not just the left side of the midfield pivot though, Zinchenko can be found everywhere – even on the right side of the pitch as the screengrabs and heatmap from the GW3 match vs Bournemouth shows!

With this new role of dropping into midfield at every instant, Zinchenko is in a familiar position since it’s the same role he plays for his national side Ukraine as well as while at City whereby he can orchestrate attacking buildup more thereby increasing his assist potential. Indeed, that was the case twice when Zinchenko launched passes over the top of the Bournemouth defense for Martinelli and Arsenal had the ball in the final third / penalty area.

With Arsenal’s dream run of fixtures extending till GW8, it seems that a Clean sheet and 6 points is the floor for Zinchenko. He also has the best minutes per baseline bonus of any defender and it can be expected that if Arsenal do keep a clean sheet (despite Fulham being a team in the top 6 for xG) then Zinchenko will be in amongst the bonuses.

IVAN TONEY

Toney with two goals and two assists already, having registered attacking returns in 3 of 3 games, comes up next against an Everton side that has conceded in all 3 of their games so far.

Toney has an xG of 1.28 and xA of 1.18 with 7 chances created for a Brentford side who look like a well-tuned attacking outfit having scored 8 goals in 3 games ( League rank: 3^rd )

Now is a good time to transfer Toney in as the fixture ticker shows a sea of green for Brentford. With midweek games coming up, Toney is an FPL asset who will be nailed for 90 minutes every week, is on penalties & has started the season with excellent underlying numbers.

The popular sentiment is that Everton are a team to target with the 3^rd worst xG in the league and Toney this week is poised to continue his excellent start to the season with goals and assists against them.

NOTABLE MENTIONS:

REECE JAMES

James finds a successive mention in this article despite being part of a defence that let in 3 goals last weekend v a relentless Leeds simply because of how poor Leicester have been at both ends of the pitch.

Leicester managed just 0.3xG in their 2-1 loss against Southampton this past weekend, which was abysmal since the general perception right now is that Southampton are a team to target.

In fact, their stats show that they are woeful at both ends of the pitch:

• Expected Goals – 1.37 ( League Rank: 19th )
• Shots in the Box – 14 ( 19th )
• Big Chances – 1 ( 20th )
• xG Conceded non-penalty– 4.65 ( 19th )
• Big chances conceded – 10 ( 20th )

With the chatter amongst Chelsea fan forums that the Loftus Cheek at RWB experiment being over, it could see James moved to his favored RWB position v Leicester from where he has been devastating. That coupled with the news that Kovacic is back in training (although I feel that Lei may come too early for him) is good news from a defensive standpoint and I expect James to get a return this coming week.

CONCLUSIiON

To conclude, after a Gameweek where the template performed badly the tendency is to kneejerk and make rash decisions. However, as is evident from the article above, this upcoming GW is one that has a lot of favourable matchups hence any transfers made have to be made with careful consideration and with an eye on the upcoming mass rotation expected from GW5 onwards once midweek matches start. Hope this article helps you with that!

If you liked the article, do like share, and retweet. As always all feedback is welcome – I can be found @hobbes3103.

All data from Fantasy Football Scout, Fantasy Football Hub, BBC Match of the Day, Sofascore, Fotmob & Opta.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 4
FPL GW4 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Predicted GW4 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW4 Deadline
Eye-Test Based Player Watchlist For FPL Gameweek 4
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold And Sell
FPL GW1-3 Review: Template, Emerging Assets, Wildcard & More
FPL GW4 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW3 Team of the Weak
FPL GW4 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
How Premier League Footballers Fared As FPL Managers In GW3?

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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Allaboutfpl is completely 100% free to access and will remain the same. We do not like putting a paywall on our blogs and disappoint our readers like other websites (Not naming anyone😉). So you can continue to scroll and read without having to pay.

Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

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