Best £4.5-5.5 Midfielders – Bailey Replacements Ahead of FPL GW3

With popular budget midfielder Leon Bailey being benched in GW2, this has prompted many managers to look for other cheap options in midfield who have gotten off to a better start and are more assured of minutes. Ahead of FPL GW3, Best Bailey Replacements are covered in detail with stats, average positions, upcoming fixtures and detailed comparison.

The six options I will be taking a closer look at are:

• Joshua Dasilva
• Brenden Aaronson
• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
• Pascal Groß
• Anthony Gordon
• Eberechi Eze

As only two gameweeks have passed, there is still very little data to work with, but I will try to look closely at upcoming fixtures and first impressions to help with the difficult decision.

[All stats taken from FFSCOUT, unless stated otherwise]

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including Fixtures to target, Scout Picks, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Transfer Trends, Buy/Hold/Sell Analysis and more. Completely free to access as well!

Dasilva – £4.6m

Dasilva has had a clinical start to the season, scoring 2 goals from 96 minutes of football (having not started in GW1) with an xG of only 0.07. Scoring 2 goals outside the box from 2 shots in total, this brings into question to what extent his form is sustainable compared to other assets who have had more goal-scoring opportunities. In terms of assist potential, he has registered an xA of just 0.04, creating no chances.

He has also only started 1 of Brentford’s opening 2 games, which introduces another downside to Dasilva as an asset. His starting position is not as nailed as the other options here, and with the recent signing of Damsgaard he could very well see his minutes shared in the long term. If you would be relying on Dasilva in your starting 11, this could prove to be an issue that managers are currently having with Bailey.

Heatmaps

[Taken from SofaScore]

Average Position

• Dasilva operates towards the right-hand side in midfield
• He can also take corners

Brentford began their 2022/23 campaign with a 2-2 draw against Leicester, and put in a strong performance this week to beat United 4-0. Their 6 goals so far are tied with 3 other teams at the top. Overall, they are 15th for goal attempts (21), joint-17th for shots inside the box (12), but joint-2nd (and 1st among the teams discussed here) for shots on target (10). Brentford’s attacking statistics have been a mixed bag in the opening two weeks, but they have great upcoming fixtures:

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Everton, Palace, Leeds, and Southampton are consistently among the bottom 10 teams defence-wise from the opening two gameweeks. In Palace’s case, this can be explained by facing Arsenal and Liverpool in succession, and last season they found themselves to be one of the top 5 defensive teams in the league if you look at their overall statistics. Fulham also seems like a favourable fixture, though they have had a lively return to the Premier League, holding Liverpool and Wolves to a draw.

Aaronson (£5.5m)

Aaronson’s promising start to his time in the Premier League hasn’t translated to points, only accumulating 3 so far, with no goal involvement yet. He has an xG of 0.12 and an xA of 0.08, making 1 shot in the box and creating 1 chance so far. However, he has shown to be an exciting part of Leeds’ attack, and many managers have had him on their watchlist considering his impressive season with Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2021/22.

Taking last season’s stats from FBREF, in 26 matches he scored 4 goals, under-performing his xG of 8.3, and bagged 4 assists with an xA of 3.5. He created 42 chances, meaning he created 2 per 90 minutes. He is still an unknown in terms of FPL despite his promising start, so would perhaps be a risk compared to other assets here.

Heatmaps

[Taken from SofaScore]

Average Position

• Aaronson plays on the right
• He takes corners

Leeds have had a fairly positive start to the season, beating Wolves and drawing with Southampton and scoring 4 goals in total. Currently, they come in at joint-10th for goal attempts (25), joint-8th for shots inside the box (18), and have had 5 big chances. Of all teams discussed here, they are also joint-2nd for shots on target (9).

Leeds’ upcoming fixtures are as follows:

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Following a difficult game against Chelsea, Leeds have some great games coming up. Everton and Nottingham Forest in particular have had a poor start defensively, and Brentford remain among the bottom half of the teams also. Brighton have been more solid in the back, but there is still a possibility for Leeds to get some valuable points. Overall, the Leeds attack could definitely continue their good form over the next few gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 3 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell

Dewsbury-Hall – £5m

Dewsbury-Hall has 1 goal, and, like Dasilva, has a very low xG of 0.05, having 2 goal attempts and just 1 shot on target and 1 touch in the penalty area. He has also had no shots in the box and no big chances, so other options here do look like the better picks from the little data we have. As opposed to last season when rotation was an issue, he does now appear nailed in the Leicester side. In terms of assists, he has registered none yet with an xA of 0.04 and 1 chance created. Overall, his xGI over the first 2 games is just 0.09.

Heatmaps

[Taken from SofaScore]

Average Position

• Compared to assets like Gross and Gordon, Dewsbury-Hall operates a more defensive position in the midfield
• He can take corners

He is part of a strong attack that many managers have either already invested in or are interested in through Maddison. Despite scoring 4 goals so far, Leicester’s total goal attempts (20) come in at 16th among all teams. They have also had just 10 shots in side the box, with only Bournemouth having less, and have created just 1 big chance. They did have a tougher GW2 fixture against a strong Arsenal defence, and many managers will be hoping their attack can provide great value and get to the numbers they did last season.

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Unfortunately Leicester have a tough fixture in GW6 against Chelsea, but they do face some struggling defences in Southampton, and United have had a poor start to the season. Villa, although providing fairly average defensive numbers, have conceded in both opening games, but Brighton are consistently a solid defence who could definitely cause some problems.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz

Groß – £5.6m

Groß has the most points so far (18), having started the season with 2 goals (already equaling his goal tally last season), and has the highest xG among all midfielders so far – 1.44. He is the only asset here who has registered a big chance, racking up 3 in total, with also 3 shots inside the box and 2 shots on target. Assist-wise, he has an xA of 0.63 but no assists, creating 5 chances. He is also top among midfielders for xGI – 2.07.

Heatmaps

[Taken from SofaScore]

Average Position

• Groß has been playing on the right side
• Scout currently lists him as Brighton’s second-choice penalty taker behind Maupay, who has not started either game – this is not entirely certain yet, but it does look positive
• He also takes corners

Of all teams discussed here, Brighton have had the most goal attempts (28), and the 2nd-most shots on target (9), having beaten United 2-1 drawing 0-0 against Newcastle in GW2 – though have scored just the 2 goals. They have also had 5 big chances. Their upcoming fixtures are also positive:

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The GW3 fixture against West Ham will be a more difficult one, but Leeds, Bournemouth, and Leicester have had a poor start to the season defensively. As discussed before, Fulham have had a fairly strong start to the season, but Brighton will be going into that game as favourites.

Further Read: Predicted GW3 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams

Gordon (£5.5m)

Despite Everton’s poor start to the season, Gordon has caught the attention of FPL managers. He was popular last season, particularly during the double gameweeks, and ended the campaign with 4 goals from an xG of 4.80, and 2 assists with an xA of 3.09.

Gordon, like Aaronson, has yet to score or get an assist. He has an xG of 0.28 with 3 shots in the box and 2 shots on target, and his xGI of 0.29 is third among all the options I have discussed here. He is yet to have a big chance or create a chance, however.

Heatmaps

[Taken from SofaScore]

Average Position

• Gordon has been playing as a striker
• He can take free kicks and corners

Although it is still very early in the season and they had a tough opening fixture against Chelsea, what we have seen of Everton’s attack hasn’t been too promising. Everton have only had 1 big chance so far, are 13th for goal attempts (23), and joint-8th for shots inside the box (18).

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The next three games do look like a good opportunity to take a punt on someone like Gordon. However, games against Liverpool and Arsenal will be off-putting unless you are planning to hold Gordon for the short term, though booking in a transfer is risky, or if you planned on being able to cover his position in your starting line-up.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Eze – £5.5m

Eze has bagged 1 assist with an xA of 0.20, creating 1 chance. He is yet to score a goal, and has an xG of 0.49, having 1 big chance, 1 shot inside the box, and 1 shot on target. In terms of expected statistics, he comes second in behind Groß among all these options. This is quite promising considering Palace have had difficult opening games against Arsenal and Liverpool.

Heatmaps

[Taken from SofaScore]

Average Position

• Eze plays primarily towards the left
• He has taken corners

The effect of having tough opening games can be seen on Palace’s attacking numbers. Only Bournemouth have less goal attempts (17) and shots on target – though they are tied with two other teams on 5. However, they are tied with City on big chances (6), with only Arsenal and Liverpool having more. However, they did brilliantly in GW2 to gain a point from a 1-1 draw with Liverpool.

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Palace do have another tough fixture in GW4, but have some positive fixtures scattered around that against Villa and Brentford, when owning Eze would be quite exciting. Newcastle are yet to concede a goal and are a strong defence, so that fixture from an attacking viewpoint will be trickier. United have had a poor start to the season, and it would definitely be possible for Palace and Eze to take something from that game. Overall, these fixtures are not as appealing as other assets here.

FPL GW3 Bailey Replacements- Stats Summary & Comparison

Best Bailey Replacements- The Verdict

If you plan to have Dasilva as a bench option in favour of upgrading elsewhere, as many managers will have 2 free transfers going into GW3, then I think he is a solid option. Due to his rotation risk and his underlying numbers so far, I would be hesitant to opt for him as a consistent starter, unless future gameweeks show that he is not as much of a minutes risk as first thought.

As of now, Dewsbury-Hall‘s numbers are not as promising as some of the other options here, but he is £0.5m cheaper than everyone other than Dasilva. I do think he would be an upgrade from Bailey, being more nailed and part of a better attacking team. Maddison is still the go-to Leicester attacker however. If you did not want to upgrade Bailey’s position, then I think Dewsbury-Hall would be a better long-term option than Dasilva.

Given his great opening form, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think Gross could keep ticking over. He is my favourite option out of the bunch, but he is the most expensive out of these assets so may not be the best fit for the structure of your team.

Gordon, potentially playing as a striker for Everton, has great fixtures from GW3-5 that would be ideal to target if you didn’t mind booking in a transfer or planned to Wildcard during this time. However, Everton’s current form could put you off, and I would also keep a close eye on Chelsea’s bids for Gordon.

Aaronson is also yet to have a goal involvement, but given Leeds’ attacking form I would be personally tempted to take a chance on him. However, Rodrigo and Harrison have been the Leeds players who have provided value for money so far, and Aaronson is definitely still hard to predict FPL-wise. If you would rather not take a risk on a player who is new to the Premier League, then one of the other options here would fit you better.

Eze has recently returned from a long-term injury and may be more of a minutes risk compared to some of the more nailed options here, but a lot of FPL managers will be excited by his potential. Palace do have some tricky fixtures coming up however, so that will have to be taken into account.

The budget midfielder slot is tricky because these cheap assets undoubtedly all come with different downsides, and with only 2 gameweeks of data this makes these decisions harder. In particular, choosing your preferred £5.5m midfielder will be hard and may come down to gut instinct, but best of luck with whatever transfers you make!

Thank you so much for reading this article. I am always open to feedback and suggestions – you can follow me on Twitter @soph_fpl.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3

FPL Gameweek 3 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
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FPL GW3 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW3 Deadline
FPL GW3 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
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Best £4.5-5.5 Midfielders- Bailey Replacements Ahead Of FPL GW3
SPITCH Matchday 3 Preview | Top Picks, Tips & Team Reveal
FPL GW3 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
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FPL GW2 Review Based on Eye Test & Stats | FPL Trybe
FPL GW3 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
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FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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