Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

After a very surprisingly amazing week for our Captaincy metrics where it chose Cancelo and Foden over Salah (who blanked), we are back with our FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks. (Note: Blog written and published 4 hours before deadline. At the time of writing we have not got any confirmed news about Cancelo being out due to COVID and Spurs game off due to COVID)

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 19 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including differentials, review, and analysis of the previous week matches, transfer trends, transfer tips, injury news, postponements, and much more.

FPL GW19 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”29″]

Manchester United’s Crisitano Ronaldo, tops the polls with 48% of the votes. 

He’s followed by Heung Min-Son (17.7%) and last Gameweek’s hero Joao Cancelo (16%). The candidates list is rounded up by Lacazette (3%) and Phil Foden (4%).

Further Read: FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW19 Preview

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 19 Captain picks

(C)andidateShots Inside The BoxChances CreatedBig Chances TotalExpected Goals (xG)Player’s Attack Rank
Ronaldo17163.701
Son7952.213
Cancelo4710.485
Foden71411.94
Lacazette6542.512
Last six games

Cristiano Ronaldo tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 12 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances in total and an xG total of 3.32, the Portuguese leads the Attacking Stats factor for players. 

Lacazette comes in behind Ronaldo, with 6 Shots Inside the Box, 4 Big chances and an xG total of 2.51.

Heung-Min Son just about takes the third place with 5 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chance and an xG of 1.86.

Phil Foden with 7 shots inside the box, 1 Big Chance and xG of 1.90 just about beats teammate Joao Cancelo, who has 4 Shots Inside the Box, 1 Big Chance and xG of 0.48. 

Further Read: FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW19 Preview

Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams

(C)andidateShots Inside The BoxBig Chances TotalExpected Goals (xG)Team’s Attack Rank
Man United (Ronaldo)481110.204
Tottenham (Son)45189.905
Man City(Cancelo)942218.201
Man City (Foden)942218.201
Arsenal (Lacazette)701913.93
Last six gameweeks

Manchester City have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 6 games. An impressive total of 94 Shots Inside the Box and 22 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 18.20, by far the best as compared to the teams in focus in this week’s analysis.  

Arsenal come in second behind Manchester City with 70 Shots Inside the Box and 19 Big Chances in Total resulting in an xG of 13.90. 

Manchester United come in behind Manchester City with 48 Shots Inside the Box, 11 Big Chances in total and an xG of 10.20.  

Tottenham have the weakest underlying numbers of all teams assessed here, with just 45 Shots Inside the Box, 18 Big Chances in total and an xG of 9.90. 

Further Read: Popular FPL GW19 Player Comparisons | FPL GW19 Preview

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Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW19

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.

(C)andidateDrafthound Clean Sheet OddsDrafthound Odds of Conceding >2.5 GoalsSafety RankExplosion RankAverage Factor of Safety Rank and Explosion RankFixture Difficulty Rank
Newcastle (vs Ronaldo)14%37%3333
Crystal Palace (vs Son)20%25%5555
Leicester City (vs Cancelo)8%42%1111
Leicester City (vs Foden)8%42%1111
Norwich (vs Lacazette)14%31%343.54

Leicester, who are facing Manchester City this week, have the weakest odds. Clean sheet odds of just 8% pretty much tells you that the bookies really fancy Manchester City to score at least one goal in this match. Leicester City have also been given a 42% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week, meaning City scoring 3 goals this Gameweek should not come as a surprise.

Newcastle come in behind Leicester, with a 14% chance of keeping a CS and a 37%  chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week against Manchester United.

Norwich, facing Arsenal this week, have been given a 14% chance of keeping a Clean Sheet. They have also been given a 31% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals against Arsenal who have been in form recently.

Crystal Palace have been given the best Clean sheets odds of 20% this week out of all the teams in focus here. They have also been given a 25% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals, as the bookies seem to be less confident on this one seeing too many goals. 

Visit Drafthound.com for more free stats, data, and more!

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

(C)candidateAnytime Returns (FFHUB Tool)Projected Points (FFHUB)Safety RankingExplosion RankAverage Rank FactorSafety + Explosion Rank
Ronaldo71%6.9211.51
Son58%6.44233
Cancelo73%6.21322
Foden61%3.63544
Lacazette56%5.4544.55

Cristiano Ronaldo has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 71%, while his Projected Points stand at 6.9 for the week.

Joao Cancelo has the second-highest Anytime Returns Projections at 73%, and his Projected Points at 6.2 for the game against Watford. 

Hueng-Min Son has an Anytime Returns Projections of 58% while his Projected Points stand at 6.4, which puts him in the third place after Ronaldo and Cancelo. 

Phil Foden has an Anytime Returns Projections at 52% and Projected Points at 5.8, giving him the fourth spot, while Lacazette has an Anytime Returns Projections at 56% and Projected Points at 5.6, who rounds up the picks for the week.

Further Read: FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW19 Preview

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 20 Captaincy metric analysis

(C)andidatePlayer’s Attack RankTeam’s Attack RankFavourable Fixture RankSafety + Explosion Projections RankCumulative Rank Factor
Ronaldo14319
Son355316
Cancelo51129
Foden411410
Lacazette234514

For the second week in a row, we are tied with both Cristiano Ronaldo and Joao Cancelo with a CRF value of 9 each. However, with Covid rumours for Cancelo flying about, it would be wise to captain Ronaldo instead.

Ronaldo and Cancelo top the metric but be skeptical about the covid rumor for Cancelo. We have waited late to verify it but there’s no credible news as it stands.

Phil Foden comes in third behind the Portuguese duo with a CRF value of 10.  

Lacazette gets the fourth spot behind Foden with a CRF value of 14. 

Tottenham’s Hueng-Min Son rounds up GW19’s picks as he finishes last with a CRF value of 16. 

Thanks for reading the ‘FPL GW19 captaincy picks and metrics’ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 40,000+community on InstagramFacebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 19:

Popular FPL GW19 Player Comparisons | FPL GW19 Preview
FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW19 Preview
Best FPL GW19 Free Hit Team Ahead of FPL Gameweek 19 Deadline
FPL GW19 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations

FPL GW19 Ultimate Guide: Postponements, Double and Blank GWs, Tips, Differentials, Comparisons, Captaincy
FPL Free Hit Chip Explained | Extra FH Chip | FPL Guide
GW18 Sunday Fixture Wise Review | Players That Caught Our Eye

FPL GW18 Saturday Fixture Wise Review | Players That Caught Our Eye
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season In 2002/03

Visit Drafthound.com for more free stats, data, and more!

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 19?

We’ll be covering fixture analysis, differential picks, GW19 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, player comparisons, expected line up, press conference summaries, Scout Picks for FPL GW19, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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AK - Anurag Khetan

AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1
AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1
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