Another deadline is here and in this blog we’ll once again look at the top captain picks for this week and see if anyone can beat Mo Salah in our FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks and metrics.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including differentials, review, and analysis of the previous week matches, transfer trends, transfer tips, injury news, postponements, and much more.
FPL GW18 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”28″]
Mo Salah once again tops the metrics with more than 50% of the votes, Foden has nearly one-fourth of the votes and Cancelo comes third with 14% of the votes, Jota and Recce James complete the list of the top five candidates that will go into our captaincy metric this week.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 18 Captain picks
| (C)candidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4.55 | 2 |
| Jota | 23 | 6 | 11 | 5.04 | 1 |
| Cancelo | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0.82 | 4 |
| Recce James | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0.65 | 5 |
| Foden | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0.92 | 3 |
Jota dominates the player stats for the last six weeks with a whopping 23 shots inside the box, 11 big chances, and an xG of 5.04. Salah is closely behind with 20 shots inside the box, 8 big chances, and an xG of 4.55. The clinical finishing of Mo has however ensured him delivering more FPL points than Jota during the period.
Foden is third in the list with decent numbers but it is to note he has started only three of the last six games and made one sub appearance.
Recce James who has played the last five games out of the possible six tops the chances created during the period with 14 chances created.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 85 | 26 | 16.3 | 3 |
| Liverpool(Jota) | 85 | 26 | 16.3 | 3 |
| Man City(Cancelo) | 90 | 22 | 18.1 | 1 |
| Chelsea(James) | 70 | 19 | 14.10 | 5 |
| Man City(Foden) | 90 | 22 | 18.1 | 1 |
Man City top the team stats over the last six games with an xG of 18.1 in the last six games which is more than 3.0 per game. Liverpool are second with an xG of 16.3 and Chelsea are last with 14.10 xG in the last six games. Interestingly these three teams are also the top three in the xG table over the last six games amongst all teams.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW18
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
| (C)andidate | Drafthound Clean Sheet Odds | Drafthound Odds of Conceding >2.5 Goals | Safety Rank | Explosion Rank | Average Factor of Safety Rank and Explosion Rank | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Spurs(vs Salah) | 15% | 25% | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Spurs(vs Jota) | 15% | 25% | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Newcastle (vs Cancelo) | 8% | 54% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Wolves (vs Chelsea) | 20% | 35% | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Newcastle (vs Foden) | 8% | 54% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Newcastle United facing Man City is a big mismatch and the numbers tell the same with the magpies having just an 8% chance of clean sheet and a 54% chance of conceding more than 2.5+ goals. Wolves have the highest cleansheet odds amongst the three teams and it’s due to the fact that they played City and Liverpool over the past few games and conceded just one each to them. Spurs have just a 15% chance of a CS but their odds to restrict Liverpool to less than 2.5+ goals look better.
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 61% | 6.5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jota | 50% | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Cancelo | 70% | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Recce James | 53% | 4.8 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Foden | 62% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Mo Salah tops the projected points with a projection of 6.5 points. Cancelo tops the anytime returns odds due to his defensive and attacking returns ability. Foden has a projection of 62% and a points haul of 6 which are great numbers as well. James and Jota are the last on the list for projections.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 18 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Projections Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Jota | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| Cancelo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Recce James | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Foden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
For the first time Since GW7, someone else other than Mo Salah tops the metrics. This is also the first time in a long time that two players are tied first in our metrics. In Cancelo and Foden you have two great captaincy options this week and with a lot of managers struggling to field players this week could be the best bet to go against the trend and captain someone else other than Salah. We hope the city boys deliver to keep our run continuing.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 18:
FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
FPL GW18 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs.
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 18?
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