Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview

The busy Christmas period is continuing to bring some unexpected surprises, with news of COVID outbreaks in the Tottenham, Brighton, Norwich, Man United, and Aston Villa squads. It seems that hits are being taken now more than ever, so bringing in the players that will make those hits worth it are crucial to move up the ranks ahead of FPL GW18.

The player comparisons we’re looking ahead of FPL GW18 are:

• Watkins vs Antonio
• Mount vs Maddison
• Bowen vs Gallagher vs Ødegaard
• Cash vs Dalot vs Tierney vs Coufal

I’m definitely working on adding the eye-est where I can and to maybe not narrow my thoughts so much when looking at stats! Choosing King over Dennis taught me a valuable (if painful) lesson.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW18 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 15/16 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW16. Stay tuned for the FPL GW18 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”28″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

[All stats taken from FBREF when possible – stats not included on this site are taken from FFSCOUT]

Watkins (£7.7m) vs Antonio (£7.9m)

*Update: West Ham’s game against Norwich in FPL GW18 in postponed due to Covid Outbreak and Antonio will blank in GW18.

The striker positions have been up in the air for a few weeks, with Kane, Toney, Jiménez, and Wilson now falling out of favour for many reasons.

Villa’s upcoming fixtures and the great bounce they have had since Steven Gerrard took over means that Watkins is now among the most transferred-in players over the last week. Antonio, on the other hand, is an asset who returned so consistently at the beginning of the season, but has registered only one attacking return (an assist) since GW10.

I’m going to look at both assets to consider what makes Watkins such an attractive pick, and to analyse how and why Antonio has been drawing so many blanks.

Watkins vs Antonio: The Stats

	Watkins	Antonio
Starts / Minutes	14 / 1271	16 / 1435
Total Points	61	75
Points per Game	4.1	4.7
Goals	5	6
npxG / per 90	5.2 / 0.37	5.2 / 0.32
xG / per 90	5.2/ 0.37	5.4 / 0.34
Fantasy Assists / Assists	1 / 1	2 / 4
xA / per 90	1 / 0.07	3.9 / 0.24
npxG + xA / per 90	6.2 / 0.44	13.1 / 0.32
xG + xA / per 90	6.2/ 0.44	13.3 / 0.44
Shots / Shots on Target	28 / 13	44 / 12
Key Passes / per 90	14 / 0.99	29 / 1.82
% Goal Inolvement	33	37
% FPL Goal Involvement	39	44

Predictably, Antonio beats Watkins, but a lot of his overpowering stats come from GW1 to GW9, which was the last time he scored a goal. Since GW10, Watkins beats Antonio comfortably on most stats.

Watkins’ numbers are also great and the performance he, and Villa, put on Wednesday night will catch a lot of attention. Since Gerrard took over, Watkins has been positioned predominantly as a central striker, without Ings.

Here are Watkins’ heatmaps from GW4-11 and GW12-17 (from FFSCOUT):

As we can see, Watkins does have an affinity towards the left hand side, where he played during Gerrard’s first game and before this, where he either played as a second striker or left winger to Ings.

Average Position (FFSCOUT):

So, what has gone wrong for Antonio? Well, as we will see, nothing West Ham’s attacking threat,

Since Antonio started blanking, it has been Bowen who is the stand-out Hammers player with 18 goal attempts from GW10-16 compared to Antonio’s 11. Antonio has also been a lot less clinical. Since GW10, he has had only one shot on target.

Full credits to @SwiftyFpl on Twitter for this shot-map resource; check it out here https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/greg.johnson6877/viz/EPLShotMaps2021-22/ShotMapDash

Here’s Antonio’s shot map for GW1-9 compared to GW10-16.

There is, expectedly, a huge difference. These numbers are probably very familiar to Antonio’s owners right now, and we have to ask ourselves whether he is worth selling.

Antonio’s Maps [ FFSCOUT ]

Villa vs West Ham at a Glance

	Villa	West Ham
W / D / L	7 / 1 / 9	8 / 4 / 5
Goals (Pens)	23 (2)	28 (1)
npxG / xG	16.2 / 17.6	20.5 / 22.3
npxG / xG per 90	0.95 / 1.03	1.21 / 1.31
Chances Created	140	162
Goal Attempts	191	233
Shots on Target / per 90	58 / 3.41	72 / 4.24
Crosses	218	234

However, West Ham have displayed some great attacking numbers despite Antonio’s dip in form – I’ll discuss the Arsenal game as well when data becomes available. They are still right up there with the likes of Liverpool, City, and Chelsea in their attacking numbers, and are seriously contending for a top finish this season. This does make it even more frustrating that Antonio has blanked for so long.

West Ham vs Arsenal:

This was a poorer game from West Ham:

• Only 4 chances created
• 1 shot on target
• 7 goal attempts

This was obviously a bit of a disappointment, but we can’t ignore the brilliant form they have shown throughout the season, including beating Chelsea and Livepool.

Aston Villa	West Ham
BUR	NOR
CHE	SOU
lee	wat
bre	cry
MUN	LEE
eve	mun
LEE	WAT
new	lei

Both teams have a great set of fixtures that haven’t gone unnoticed. Villa have a few blips with Chelsea and United, but other than that they face some struggling teams.

The same can be said for West Ham, who have a more consistent run of 5 games where Antonio and Bowen will be really popular. Hopefully we will see West Ham bounce back during this time.

Watkins vs Antonio: The Verdict

Before GW17, there was a real possibility that Watkins could have been a trap player, but a lack of forward options and his fixture run made him a very popular transfer. He definitely paid off, and although his assist was a bit of luck he registered 6 shots and 3 attempted assists. Watkins is a certain hold for me, and I think bringing him in is a great move.

Antonio is a bit of a trickier situation. The view that I, and many other FPL managers hold, is that it still feels like a risk taking him out when we know what West Ham can provide and their upcoming fixtures. However, Antonio will now blank in GW18 due to a postponement.

With so many delays now being announced, we have no idea what the short term will look like. Watkins is the stand-out striker option, and I think Lacazette deserves some thought. Personally, I will be making moves in my midfield and leaving Watkins as my only striker, with Antonio surviving. I still think his upcoming fixtures make it very risky to sell him, with most giving him a final chance during this run.

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Player Comparisons, Trends And Captaincy

Mount (£7.6m) vs Maddison (£6.8m)

The Man City midfielders come in at a similar price and have long been contested, but these two more differential picks have been in great form and definitely deserve consideration.

Leicester’s game against Everton in FPL GW18 in postponed due to Covid Outbreak and Maddison will blank in GW18. With Werner, Lukaku and Hudson-Odoi testing positive for COVID-19, Mount’s place in the starting 11 looks more nailed than ever. Maddison won’t be an option now

Now with blanks for popular picks Bowen and Gallagher, space is opening up in our teams to opt for a nailed Mount in fine form. Maddison is not an option right now, but I began this article before his cancellations were announced, so I will use his numbers to analyse Mount’s form and as a possible option in the future.

Mount vs Maddison: The Stats

	Mount	Maddison
Starts / Minutes	10 / 888	12 / 1010
Total Points	84	69
Points per Game	6	4.3
Goals	7	4
npxG / xG	4.3 / 5	3.2
npxG / xG per 90	0.43 / 0.51	0.28
Fantasy Assists / Assists	1 / 4	1 / 3
xA	3.1	1.9
xA per 90	0.31	0.17
npxG + xA / xG + xA	7.4 / 8.1	5
npxG +xA / xG + xA per 90	0.75 / 0.82	0.45
Shots / Shots on Target	28 / 16	29 / 13
Key Passes (per 90)	20 (2.02)	15 (1.34)
Crosses	33	15
% Goal Involvement	44	37
% FPL Goal Involvement	48	42

Overall, Mount comes out on top, and with less rotation available to Tuchel he’s a strong candidate. However, do Chelsea’s recent results make him a risk?

Maddison still has some impressive numbers, and in the future he could be a strong differential.

Mount’s Maps [ FFSCOUT ]

When Jorginho is not on the pitch, Mount has successfully taken penalties and is also involved in corners and free kicks.

Maddison is also on free kicks and corners.

Chelsea vs Leicester at a Glance

	Chelsea	Leicester
W / D / L		6 / 4 / 6
Goals (Pens)	39 (5)	27 (1)
xG / npxG		24.1 / 23.4
x G / npxG per 90		1.51 / 1.46
Chances Created		132
Goal Attempts		188
Shots on Target		74
Crosses		129

Leicester have definitely been up and down so far this season, but what is apparent is the fact that they are right up their attacking-wise, but fall flat in their defence. Their defensive record will be of less concern though.

Chelsea have been the better team so far, despite their slight dip in form recently. Perhaps their upcoming fixtures will allow them to bounce back.

Chelsea	Leicester
wol	eve
avl	mci
BHA	LIV
LIV	NOR
mci	bur
TOT	BHA
[none]	liv
[none]	WHU

Although Chelsea have a short run of nice games, after that they meet Liverpool, City, and Tottenham in succession. Another issue with Chelsea assets is their upcoming double blank gameweeks. Therefore, doubling or tripling up on Chelsea assets will be quite risky, and it’s likely that you’ll already have at least one of their defenders.

However, Leicester’s next fixtures are a little dissuading – they meet City and Liverpool back-to-back, and benching an 8 million player seems risky, especially since the number of COVID postponements. They do have a nice short run just as Chelsea’s fixtures become less favourable, so there is the possibility of moving Mount on for Maddison for those fixtures.

Mount vs Maddison: The Verdict

Before recent updates, I would have considered Mount a risky pick. However, with many popular midfielders now blanking this weekend, if you already have a City midfielder I think Mount is a great option. He may be a short-term pick with difficult fixtures and blank gameweeks coming up, but as of now his games against Wolves, Villa, and Brighton look appealing. Rotation is always a risk with Tuchel, and we have already lost out on some great points from him, but here’s hoping that Mount maintains his form.

Maddison would be an interesting prospect, but one that is unavailable right now!

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Player Comparisons, Trends And Captaincy

Bowen (£6.5m) vs Gallagher (£6.2m) vs Ødegaard (£5.5m)

*Update: West Ham’s game against Norwich and Palace’s game against Watford in FPL GW18 in postponed due to Covid Outbreak which means both Bowen and Gallagher will blank in GW18. This section was written beforehand.

This budget midfield position is crucial, and Conor Gallagher burst back onto everyone’s radars when he bagged two goals against Everton. As ever, Bowen is still a very popular target in a strong West Ham side with great fixtures. Odegaard, on the other hand, has hit some great form and definitely warrants considerations as a differential.

Bowen vs Gallagher vs Ødegaard: The Stats

	Bowen	Gallagher	Ødegaard
Starts / Minutes	16 / 1404	16 / 1408	11 / 983
Total Points	76	89	54
Points per Game	4.5	5.6	3.6
Goals	3	6	4
npxG / per 90	6.3 / 0.32	3.6 / 0.23	1.2 / 0.11
Fantasy Assists / Assists	3 / 4	2 / 3	0 / 0
xA / per 90	2.6 / 0.17	3 / 0.19	1.6 / 0.14
npxG + xA / per 90	7.6 / 0.48	6.6 / 0.42	2.8 / 0.26
Shots / Shots on Target	42 / 16	34 / 14	14 / 7
Key Passes / per 90	25 / 1.6	27 / 1.73	24 / 2.2
Crosses	32	37	8
% Goal Involvement	25	39	22
% FPL Goal Involvement	36	48	27

Bowen’s stats are still looking great, and these will really deter people from selling him.

Gallagher had a few games playing a lot deeper, but since the game against Everton he seems to be back to his old ways.

Ødegaard’s figures are unfortunately skewed, but he’s coming away from some really impressive games and is in fine form.

Bowen’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

Bowen also takes corners, and operates hugely on the wing.

Gallagher’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

Gallagher’s maps are a lot more sporadic, but he does operate on the right mostly.

Ødegaard’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

Ødegaard has a slightly different role, with most of his shots coming from outside the box or from free kicks.

[All maps taken from FFSCOUT]

West Ham vs Palace vs Arsenal at a Glance

	West Ham	Palace	Arsenal
W / D / L	8 / 4 / 5	4 / 8 / 5	9 / 2 / 6
Goals (Pens)	28 (1)	24 (2)	23 (0)
npxG / xG	20.5 / 22.5	19.2 / 20.7	20.9 / 23.2
npxG / xG per 90	1.21 / 1.31	1.13 / 1.22	1.23 / 1.37
Chances Created	162	138	185
Goal Attempts	233	191	246
Shots on Target	72	61	80
Crosses	234	191	169

As always, West Ham’s stats are great.

Arsenal, although they have had their ups and downs, also have some great attacking numbers, making Odegaard an even stronger differential, so long as he can retain his place in the starting 11.

Although Palace fall slightly behind, they have really shown up against the likes of West Ham, City, Arsenal, and Leicester.

West Ham	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
NOR	wat	lee
SOU	tot	nor
wat	NOR	WOL
cry	WHU	MCI
LEE	bha	tot
mun	LIV	BUR
WAT	nor	wol
lei	bre	[none]

Again, West Ham’s fixtures are making their assets really favourable right now.

Gallagher, although he has some difficult fixtures now and again, also has some great games in Watford and Norwich. Right now, he’s a great way to ensure you have a strong bench, and we have seen him surprise against top teams.

Taking a punt on Ødegaard could be a great shout in the short term as Arsenal face Leeds, Norwich, and Wolves.

Bowen vs Gallagher vs Ødegaard: The Verdict

I would have considered Bowen and Gallagher firm holds, but I think now is the time to start upgrading to City, Chelsea, or Arsenal assets, since both will blank in GW18.

Right now, opting for Ødegaard as a differential is a risk, but in an in-form Arsenal side with some great upcoming fixtures, at £5.5m he could be a steal. However, many of us will already have ESR. Although if he starts there’s a strong chance he maintains his brilliant form, because Ødegaard is vying for a spot with him, Martinelli, and Saka, he may be too risky at a time when we don’t have bench cover. Personally, I would lean towards Tierney or Lacazette for the next Arsenal position (other than Ramsdale).

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Player Comparisons, Trends And Captaincy

Cash (£5m) vs Dalot (£4.5m) vs Tierney (£4.7m) vs Coufal (£4.7m)

The budget defender position is really heating up. All of these options are under 5% owned and are just emerging as potential picks.

Tierney caught my eye after reading this thread by @SnakeFpl – he makes great points; definitely check it out:

With consecutive 12 pointers in the last week, Kieran Tierney is under the #FPL microscope 🧵 pic.twitter.com/ifLBPouQGK

— Slytherins Basilisk (@SnakeFpl) December 13, 2021

*This article was started before Coufal’s red card – right now, he isn’t an option, but I kept his stats in here to better analyse the others.

**United’s game vs Brighton is called off this weekend. So Dalot is no more a option ahead of FPL GW18.

Cash vs Dalot vs Tierney vs Coufal: The Stats

	Cash	Tierney	Dalot		Coufal
Starts / Minutes	17/ 1515	11 / 926	3 / 361		11 / 1004
Total Points	56	55	16		29
Points per Game	3.3	5	2.3		2.1
Goals	1	0	0		0
npxG / per 90	1.1 / 0.06	0.3 / 0.03	0.2 / 0.06		0.3 / 0.02
Fantasy Assists / Assists	0 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 0		0 / 2
xA / per 90	0.8 / 0.05	1 / 0.1	0.1 / 0.02		1.5 / 0.14
npxG + xA / per 90	1.9 / 0.11	1.3 / 0.13	0.3		0.3 / 0.16
Shots / Shots on Target	17 / 4	8 / 2	3 / 2		7 / 2
Key Passes (per 90)	8 (0.48)	13 (1.26)	2 (0.50)		11 (0.98)
Crosses	47	35	17		36
% Goal Involvement	5	15	0		10
% FPL Goal Involvement	5	15	0		10
Clean Sheets	5	6	2		2
Goals Conceded	22	12	5		15
Yellow Cards	4	0	2		1 (1 red)
% Aerial Duels Won	51.8	23.5	81.8		39.3
% Tackles Won	69.4	90.9	62.5		78.3
Blocks / Clearances	3 / 34	2 / 25	3 / 10		2 / 25
Errors Leading to Chance / Goal	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0		0 / 0

Unfortunately, Dalot is an uncertainty and his data is also skewed. However, particularly with Livramento dipping in form, he is a bargain at £4.4m.

Cash in particular is providing some great numbers, and with Villa looking more stable under Gerrard he is a great pick. One thing to keep in mind is that he is one yellow card away from a suspension.

These assets attack in a very similar way, providing crosses from their respective flanks – @SnakeFpl uses Tierney’s map in his thread.

[Attempted assists of Cash, Tierney, Dalot, Coufal from FFFIX]

Cash’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

Tierney’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

Dalot’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

Coufal’s Maps( FFSCOUT )

[All maps taken from FFSCOUT]

Villa vs United vs Arsenal vs West Ham at a Glance

	Aston Villa	Man United	Arsenal	West Ham
W / D / L	7 / 1 / 9	8 / 3 / 5	9 / 2 / 6	8 / 4 / 5
Goals (Pens)	23 (2)	26 (2)	23 (0)	28 (1)
npxG / xG	16.2 / 17.6	20.5 / 22.7	20.9 / 23.2	20.5 / 22.5
npxG / xG per 90	0.95 / 1.03	1.28 / 1.42	1.23 / 1.37	1.21 / 1.31
Chances Created	126	183	185	162
Goal Attempts	174	220	246	233
Shots on Target	58	75	80	72
Crosses	218	176	169	234
Goals Conceded / per 90	25 / 1.47	24 / 1.50	22 / 1.29	21 / 1.24
Shots on Target Conceded	71	74	81	74
Crosses Conceded	294	290	151	152

• Villa have only created 27.9% of chances down the right – that’s the lowest of any team so far

• United have only created 29% of chances down the right – this was at just 22.9% from GW14-16, when Dalot has started – although there is a very small sample size here

• Arsenal have created 30.8% of chances down their left – this was slightly higher when Tierney started between GW1-8 (37.6%)

• West Ham have created 36.4% of chances down the right – marginally lower than chances down the left, but the majority of chances have come down their flanks

All teams have their appeal here, so it’s crucial to look at upcoming fixtures as well.

Aston Villa	Man United	Arsenal	West Ham
BUR	bre	lee	NOR
CHE	BHA	nor	SOU
lee	new	WOL	wat
bre	BUR	MCI	cry
MUN	WOL	tot	LEE
eve	avl	BUR	mun
LEE	WHU	wol	WAT
new	bur	[none]	lei

All assets have some very attractive fixtures coming up.

Villa, United, and West Ham’s fixtures are definitely being targeted by FPL managers – but United’s COVID postponements are putting a spanner in the works. Tierney also has some great short-term fixtures coming up.

Cash vs Dalot vs Tierney vs Coufal: The Verdict

Obviously Coufal isn’t an option right now, but maybe when he’s back he will be added to the list again.

United’s fixture on the weekend is postponed, so he’s not an option right now either.

Cash and Tierney are the stand-out differential defender picks for me. With so many unknowns already, Tierney’s competition with Nuno Tavares might be off-putting. However, he could be a great way to invest in the Arsenal defence with some attacking threat.

I think with Villa’s upcoming fixtures Cash could shine too. It’s a difficult decision between the two, and one that could depend on squad structure.

Right now, I don’t think there’s a wrong decision – I’m still torn between which asset to bring in this week, and I definitely think it’s wise to leave any transfers until the last minute.

Thank you, as always, for taking the time to read this! I’m definitely still learning, but I take these articles very seriously and I’m always thankful that I can write about something I’m passionate about every week. Any feedback or advice is always welcome 🙂

Stay safe everyone, and good luck!

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 18:

FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Player Comparisons, Trends And Captaincy
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18?

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