FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW20 Preview

Boxing day fixtures lived up to the expectations with a lot of goals in all the games. Our differentials picks from last week were also on fire with Kane, Tierney, Mahrez amongst the goals. But with games coming thick and fast we have no time to rest. The next deadline is almost here and in this blog, we take a look at the best differential options for FPL GW20 from the eight fixtures that will be played(At the time of writing).

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW20 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 17/19 record this year. Stay tuned for the GW20 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 20 blogs.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW20 Differential Picks

Phil Foden vs Brentford(A), TSB: 9.9%

Manchester City has been in rampant form of late in the league racking up 17 goals from the last three games averaging 5.6 goals/game. But the bigger call in FPL is picking up the right Manchester City attacker for the particular week. Foden and Grealish were both named in the bench in the last 2 games due to disciplinary issues. It does feels like the punishment is served now and Foden will return back to the starting 11 against Brentford with just few days rest between GW19 and FPL GW20 matches. Foden played as a false 9 after coming on a sub against Leicester and is likely to start again in the same position against Brentford. He has 19 points from his last 2 starts with 1 goal, 2 assists.

Phil Foden Stats per 90 minutes this season:

• Expected Goals- 0.41
• Expected Assists- 0.46
• Expected Goal Involvement- 0.9
• Big Chances- 0.54

Further Read: Best FPL GW20 Free Hit Team Ahead of FPL Gameweek 20 Deadline

Jarod Bowen(6.5) vs Watford(A), TSB: 7.6%

West Ham are likely to have a Double Gameweek in GW21 or GW22 and there are no questions over who is the best West Ham asset to own given the form Bowen is in. Bowen has had 11 goal involvements from the last 14 games with 3 goals, 8 assists fetching 74 points in the process. West Ham’s next 4 fixtures amazing on paper- Watford, Crystal Palace, Leeds and Norwich*(Likely to be rescheduled in GW21 or GW22). In FPL GW20, Bowen is up against a Watford side who have the 5th worst nPxGC(27.5), 4th worst for big chances conceded(40) despite playing just 16 games so far. It is to be noted that, Bowen may be given a rest(most players will be rested at least for a game over this period) in GW20 but is still one of the best the value picks in the game for the next 4-5 Gameweeks.

Bowen stats since GW5- Key numbers:

• Joint 1st for assists in the league along with Salah(8 assists)
• Joint 2nd for Goal Involvements in the league(11 goal involvements)
• 4th for shots inside the box(29)– Only behind Salah, Jota and Ronaldo

West Ham’s next 4 opponents- Defensive Rank:

Opponents	Goals conceded	Big Chances Conceded	Non-Penalty Expected Goals Conceded	Shots inside the box conceded
Watford(A)	16th	17th	16th	14th
Crystal Palace(A)	12th	3rd	7th	6th
Leeds United(H)	18th	18th	19th	18th
Norwich City(H)	19th	16th	18th	17th

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Joshua King vs West Ham United(H), £5.8, TSB: 6.7%

Watford had their game in FPL GW19 postponed due to COVID but they are back in action in FPL GW20 against Westham united. Watford are also potentially scheduled to have a double in both GW21 and GW22. Watford have been amongst the goals since Ranieri took over. Westham have been poor defensively lately and Watford will look to capitalize on it. King’s strike partner Dennis is off to the AFCON soon and this could be finally time for King to convert his underlying numbers.

Key Stat- King:

King has 15 big chances involvements(11 big chances and 4 big chances created) with an impressive xGI of 8.9 from just 14 games this season.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Best Free Hit Team, Differentials, Comparisons, Covid Postponements, Captaincy

Dominic Calvert-Lewin vs Newcastle(H), £7.9, TSB: 2.8%

Note: There are strong rumours circulating that Everton vs Newcastle may be postponed due to COVID, so keep checking for the updates and delay your transfer if you are bringing in DCL.

Remember him? After starting the first three games, Calvert-Lewin has been on the sidelines ever since. However, after 3 months of frustration, he is now back in FPL GW20 to take on a Newcastle side who rather impressed against Manchester United. The Everton forward had scored in each of his three games before the injury, he also picked up 5 bonus points in that time.

Everton will be on a high after earning a well deserved point at Stamford Bridge a fortnight back, nearly. The Toffees have an amazing run of games coming up. Five of their next seven games are ranked 2 in the FDR chart.

Believe it or not, DCL has the highest xG and has had the most number of big chances among Everton players this season. The striker has only played 249 minutes, which is significantly lesser than his compatriots.

Meanwhile Newcastle, despite impressing against Manchester United, still has the worst defense in the league. The Magpies are the worst when it comes to the concession of shots, shots in the box, big chances, and goals. Eddie Howe’s men have given away 44% of their chances through the center, exactly where DCL operates. The Magpies have also conceded 42 headed attempts, the joint seventh worst in the league. Forty one percent of Calvert-Lewin’s Premier League goals have come via headers. A match made in heaven indeed!

Further Read: Best FPL GW20 Free Hit Team Ahead of FPL Gameweek 20 Deadline

Romelu Lukaku vs Brighton(H), £11.5, TSB:8.8%

Chelsea was in dire need of some inspiration, as performances, goals, and results had all dipped until halftime came along at Villa Park. That is when Thomas Tuchel, rather reluctantly, decided to bring on Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian inspired Chelsea to a stunning second-half performance, which saw the blues score twice in a 3-1 win. Lukaku scored and assisted to help Chelsea return to winning ways, after back to back draws.

Chelsea’s opponents Brighton have conceded a league 49% of their chances through the center. Lukaku will be more than happy to exploit the blatant weakness the Seagulls have.

As we can see, Brighton’s apparent weakness dovetails perfectly with where Lukaku operates. Having said that, Lukaku is a one week punt at best. Chelsea don’t have an easy run-in in the next month or so, post which they miss two games due involvement in the Club World Cup.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Best Free Hit Team, Differentials, Comparisons, Covid Postponements, Captaincy

Ultra differential pick (TSB: <1%)

Emerson Royal vs Southampton(A), £4.9 TSB: 0.7%

Spurs are beginning to play a lot more like a Conte side and this means the likes of Regulion and Emerson are fast becoming essentials. In fact, Emerson got his first assist this season against Palace in FPL GW19. Against Palace he had a impressive outing with 1 shot inside the box, 4 key passes, 1 big chance created, xA-0.57, xG- 0.18 and fetched 2 bonus points to get 11 points. His heatmap below looks promising as well and with Spurs potentially having a double gameweek in GW22 adds the value to this transfer.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 20:

Best FPL GW20 Free Hit Team Ahead of FPL Gameweek 20 Deadline
FPL GW19 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Players that Caught our Eye
FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Best Free Hit Team, Differentials, Comparisons, Covid Postponements, Captaincy
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 20 blogs.

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