FPL GW18 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations

Welcome to FPL GW18 Transfer Trends! This is a weekly series where we take a bit of time to analyze some of the major transfer trends on FPL prior to the deadline.

The quick turnaround of GW17 meant that managers had to be quick on their toes should they have wanted to get a new transfer in. A couple of sudden fixture postponements caused havoc for managers.

*NOTE: The majority of this article was written on Thursday, the 16th of December, with a few games left to be played in GW17. This means that some of the stats used may not include the games yet to be played.

This week, we can see the transfer trends show people buying players from Aston Villa, Watford, Chelsea, Man City, Crystal Palace, and West Ham. The top 5 transfers OUT come from Man City, Crystal Palace, Leicester, and West Ham United.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW18 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 16/17 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW17. Stay tuned for the GW18 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”28″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL Transfers Gameweek 18 Deadline

Saturday 18th December 2021 at 1:30 PM BST

We will take a look at the players that managers are rushing to get in their teams, as well as the players managers are booting out. Then, we will dive into three main transfer combinations that could be decent moves to make ahead of the upcoming gameweek.

RECAP of GW17 TRANSFER TRENDS

Cornet (0 points) to Gallagher (2 points) 🤔

Toney (0 points; postponement) to Dennis (0 points; postponement) ❌

Son (0 points; postponement) to Bernardo (1 points) ❌

Sudden fixture postponements made the GW17 transfer picks tough. Hoping for better success in GW18.

Top Transfers Ins and Outs Ahead of FPL GW18

Bernardo’s muscle injury doubt puts him at the top of the top transfers out list, with 105k transfers out already. Everton winger Townsend (39k) suffers from a foot injury with an unknown return date.

Leicester striker Vardy sees 35k managers transfer him out after limited minutes in GW15, a benching in GW16, and a fixture postponement in GW17. Without a goal in 8 matches, Antonio sees 29k managers take him out of their teams. Jesus‘ lackluster streak of blanks and a benching in GW17 prompts 25k managers to look elsewhere for forward options.

On the flip side, Watkins makes the top spot of top transfers in, with 84k managers impressed by his 12 point haul in GW17. Despite his fixture postponement in GW17, 57k managers are still eager to bring on Watford striker Dennis in prior to GW18.

After scoring a goal and an assist in City’s 7-0 thrashing over Leeds, Foden sees 48k managers transfer him in ahead of his fixture against Newcastle. 42k managers bring in Gallagher, and, finally, another 31k managers opt for Michail Antonio despite his lack of form as of late.

The 3 transfer combinations we will be focusing on are: Toney to Watkins, Vardy to Lacazette, and Mbeumo to Foden.

Top Three FPL GW18 Transfer Trends Combinations

FPL GW18 Transfer Combination 1: 

Ivan Toney (£6.6) to Ollie Watkins (£7.7)

Although there was a slight possibility Ivan Toney could have played in GW17, the sudden postponement of the Brentford vs. Man United fixture completely eradicated Toney’s chances of playing. Owners opted for Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins.

And they were gloriously rewarded with a 12 point haul, where Watkins scored a goal and an assist against Norwich. Already before the end of the gameweek, 9.0% of managers are already making the Toney to Watkins move.

Upon taking over at Villa, Gerrard showed promise of a better Villa team, with better defensive stability. Against Norwich, Gerrard opted for a 4-3-3, with Watkins playing the false-9 role. He profited massively, with 6 shots in total, all 6 in the box, with 1 big chance and 10 touches in the box against Norwich alone.

If Gerrard chooses to deploy a similar formation used against Norwich, we could see Watkins emerge as the key standout option from this Villa side gradually gaining form.

Who do Aston Villa face in GW18?

Villa play Burnley at home in GW18. Despite showing glimpses of improved defensive stability, Burnley are still worst for shots in the box conceded (166) and 3rd worst for total shots conceded (249). They concede most of their chances down the center (39%).

This would be a good fixture to target for Watkins. Villa also have a decent run of fixtures, so he could be worth a hold.

Further Read: Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview

FPL GW18 Transfer Combination 2:

Jamie Vardy (£10.6) to Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3)

After his limited minutes in GW15, his benching in GW16, and a postponed fixture in GW17, managers have been eager to search for other options to replace Jamie Vardy. Not an entirely popular transfer option, but 0.9% of managers have already made the downgrade from the Leicester striker to Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette.

Why Lacazette? Arsenal’s former skipper Aubameyang, who played in Lacazette’s spot, is currently serving a temporary suspension from the first-team selection after a “disciplinary breach” as described by Arteta. This means Lacazette should be the nailed striker pick for Arsenal. Lacazette just so happens to be the vice-captain, who will wear the armband for the time being, further solidifying his nailed spot. And, to top it off, Lacazette is on penalties.

Owners, like myself, who brought him in for the home fixture against West Ham knew that Lacazette has a good record against West Ham. He could have enjoyed a huge haul if he had not missed the penalty. He nevertheless still scored an assist. I would trust that he would still be on penalties after this, given Arsenal’s lack of decent penalty takers.

Statistically, from the last two gameweeks, he has registered 4 shots total, 3 in the box, 2 big chances, a 40% goal involvement, and an xG of 1.55.

If you are looking to chase, Lacazette could be a sensible differential pick in the limited forward range to take a punt on.

Further Read: Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview

Who do Arsenal face in GW18?

Arsenal play Leeds away in GW18. Leeds have really struggled defensively, particularly in the last few gameweeks. In total, Leeds are currently worst for total shots conceded (265), 2nd worst for shots on target conceded (91), and 2nd worst for goals conceded (32). They concede 47% of their chances down the center.

This is definitely a favourable fixture to target as a Lacazette owner. Arsenal long-term run of fixtures are decent too, with Norwich, Wolves, and Burnley coming up in the near stretch.

FPL GW18 Transfer Combination 3: 

Bryan Mbeumo (£5.4) to Phil Foden (£8.0)

Another player affected by sudden postponements in GW17, Bryan Mbeumo saw a fixture postponement after rewarding faithful managers the gameweek before with a goal return. Nevertheless, this has still prompted 10.1% of managers to make the swap to City midfielder Phil Foden.

Managers who took brought in Foden in GW17 (or held onto him during his frustrating doubtful spell) were rewarded with a gorgeous 12 point haul, scoring a goal and an assist in City’s 7-0 thrashing over Leeds. Foden played in the false 9 role in this game, so he is definitely one to look out for in terms of out-of-position picks.

At this point in time, most managers have some form of a City midfielder, and some with both Bernardo Silva and Foden. FPL Expert AbuBakar Siddiq (@BigManBakar) ran an interesting comparison between the two midfielders if you are stumped on which to get.

… underlying numbers against Wolves was borderline negligible:

Bernardo v Foden (BHA game excluded) v Foden (all games)

21/22

Per 90

Shots in the box: 1.3 v 1.4 v 2.2
Big chances: 0.52 v 0.45 v 0.65
xG: 0.34 v 0.3 v 0.44
xGi: 0.6 v 0.77 v 1

— AbuBakar Siddiq (@BigManBakar) December 13, 2021

From this we can see that Foden’s numbers are better than Bernardo when we consider all games. However, when we exclude the Brighton game where Foden played as a false 9, the numbers are a tad bit closer.

Against Leeds alone, where he played the false 9 role, he registered 6 shots total, 1 shot in the box, 5 key passes, and 5 touches in the box. Foden is also on set-pieces.

Who do Man City face in GW18?

City play Newcastle away in GW18. Newcastle remain one of the weaker defenses in the league. They are worst for big chances conceded (43), worst for total goals conceded (34), and worst for expected goals conceded (30.4). They have only kept one clean sheet this season.

Definitely a fixture where you’d want to have a Man City midfielder of some kind, Foden in particular. City’s long-term run of fixtures are decent too, making Foden a good long-term pick.

That has been 3 potential transfer combinations that FPL managers could consider prior to the Gameweek 18 deadline. Hope this blog provided a bit of insight on viable FPL moves you could take!

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 18:

Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

Thanks for reading the ‘FPL GW18 transfer trends’ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 40,000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 18?

We’ll be covering fixture analysis, differential picks, GW18 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL GW18, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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