Another Gameweek deadline is upon us with a lot of postponements and cancellations due to COVID. In this blog, we take a look at the best differential options for FPL GW18 from the five fixtures that will be played.
How did our differential picks fare in FPL GW17?
Our differential picks for GW17 was a tremendous hit with 4/5 returning with points. Watkins and Foden returned with double digit hauls. Only Ait Nouri blanked despite Wolves keeping a clean sheet due to an injury in the warmup.
FPL GW18 Differential Picks
Raheem Sterling vs Newcastle United, TSB: 2.0%
This is the classic case of ‘Attacking the fixture‘- The worst defensive side in the league up against the best attacking side(or the 2nd best) in the league. To target the right Manchester City attackers is almost the impossible task. Sterling has been in great form of last starting in the last 5 league games and returning in 4 of those games(6.8 points/game) before getting rested midweek vs Leeds United in GW17. So, in all likelihood he starts against Newcastle United in FPL GW18. Sterling’s underlying numbers have been great and his creative side has gone up a notch with top for Key passes/90(3.22) and 2nd best for xA/90(0.45) since GW12.
Sterling in numbers(since GW12):
- Expected Goals/90 minutes- 0.66(5th)
- 1.01 Big chances/90 minutes(6th)
- 3.22 Key Passes/90 minutes(1st)
- Expected Assists/90 minutes- 0.45(2nd)
- Expected Goal Involvement- 1.1(3rd)
Attacking the fixture- The Key stat:
Newcastle have conceded the most big chances(48), most goals(37), Worst nPxGC(28.9) in the league this season whereas Manchester City have the second most big chances(51), second best xG(40.3), second most goals(40) in the league this season.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Best Combinations
Tierney vs Leeds United, TSB: 5.4%
Arsenal have the most clean sheets(5) in the league since GW10– Thanks to the solid defense and some outstanding performances from Ramsdale. Tierney returned from injury in GW15 and since then he has the most FPL points(31) in the league courtesy 2 assists and 3 clean sheets from 3 games. With most managers already having the trio of James, Cancelo and Alexander Arnold with plenty of money in the bank, Tierney should be a massive differential for the 4th defender slot at just 5.4% ownership for FPL GW18 and beyond. Arsenal’s fixtures till GW26 look really great as they have only fixture against last season’s Top 6 and there could be plenty of clean sheets on the way!
Arsenal’s next three opponents attacking ranks:
| Opponent | Expected Goals Rank | Shots inside the box Rank | Big Chances Rank |
| GW18- Leeds | 10th | 11th | 15th |
| GW19- Norwich | 19th | 19th | 20th |
| GW20- Wolves | 14th | 17th | 8th |
Further Read: Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview
Matthew Cash vs Burnley, TSB: 4.3%
Matty Cash has certainly caught our eyes with the Villa fullback showing his full attacking and defensive strength under Gerrard.
Cash has the second most touches in the opposition penalty box(48) amongst defenders this season, his 13 shots inside the box is also the highest amongst fullbacks. His touch map inside the box and shot map directly correlate, which you can see from the below maps. Out of the 18 shots he has taken so far this season, 13 have been from within the box.
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Matchup Alert:
Aston Villa’s FPL GW18 opponent Burnley are the worst in xG(5.9), big chances(7) in the league since GW10. So a sure clean sheet on top of an attacking return might be well waiting for Cash!
Now with Chelsea defense having a slump in form with just one clean sheet in the last seven games, Cash could be a good switch especially if you’re in a double-up or having defenders with blank GWs. The only downside is that Cash has been on four yellow cards and one more before GW20 will see him miss a game.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Postponements, Differentials, Player Comparisons, Trends And Captaincy
Lacazette vs Leeds United(A), TSB: 3.0%
With most of the forward options misfiring in general, the onus has shifted to a lesser owned Arsenal striker. Lacazette has started the last 3 league games and has been in great form with his contract at stake and his strike partner Aubameyang out due to disciplinary reasons. He was handed the captaincy in the absence of Aubameyang and did put in a shift with a great performance. Despite missing the penalty, he did have a great game and got an assist to his name.
Lacazette in numbers:
- 43% Goal scoring Odds(DraftHound) which is the 4th highest for FPL GW18- Only behind Salah, Foden and Sterling.
- Expected Points of 17.1 over the last 3 Gameweeks- 2nd Highest among forwards
- xG- 1.55 over the last 3 Gameweeks- 2nd Highest among Forwards
- xA- 0.67 over the last 3 Gameweeks- 2nd Highest among forwards
His underlying numbers over the past few weeks has been great and maybe a big haul is on cards against a struggling Leeds defense. Leeds stand at rock bottom in charts for defensive numbers(Big chance conceded, xGC, Shots on Target conceded) over the last 3 weeks. This is mainly due to the 7-0 thumping given by Manchester City and their confidence should also be at a all time low after the drubbing.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 18:
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
FPL GW18 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Best Combinations
Popular FPL GW18 Player Comparisons | GW18 Preview
FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Postponements, Differentials, Player Comparisons, Trends And Captaincy
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 18 blogs.
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 18?
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Srinivasan S
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