FPL GW16 Preview

In this FPL GW16 preview article, let’s try to solve our transfer dilemmas ahead of FPL gameweek 16 with the help of some scatter plots and other stats. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW16 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by @AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 14/15 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW15. Stay tuned for the GW16 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 16 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”25″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

TEAM ATTACKING FORM AND FIXTURES

First up, let’s see how the teams fared so far attacking wise and how the fixtures are in the upcoming gameweeks with the help of a scatter plot with attacking fixture difficulty ranking (FDR) for the next 5 gameweeks according to Fantasy Football Scout’s Season Ticker plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals (xG) per game on the y-axis.

Now that we have seen the expected numbers for all teams, let’s look at how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with xG per game plotted on the x-axis and goals scored per game on the y-axis.

Actual vs Expected team performance attack

Let’s also look at the last 6 game weeks data to identify the recent trends. Such a small sample size should be weighted lightly when making your decisions as the opponent’s strength and game state would have had a greater impact.

Actual vs Expected team performance attack over the last six weeks

As expected, Liverpool are leading the pack for attacking numbers.
Manchester City attack could be targeted given their great numbers and the good fixture run (WOL LEE new LEI bre).
West Ham attack is another one to target. I would not worry about the drop in expected numbers in the last 6 gameweeks as they had the worst fixtures of all teams in that period (avl LIV wol mci BHA CHE). Now they have a great run of fixtures that extends beyond the next 5 gameweeks.

West Ham Fixture run starting FPL GW16

West Ham fixtures from FPL GW16 to FPL GW26

Speaking of fixtures, Manchester United raises their hands up, with a kind run of fixtures until gameweek 27. Maybe it’s too early to invest as they may not become pressing monsters overnight. It would take time to instill the philosophy in the players. That said, there were very promising signs in the Palace game even with just a single training session under Rangnick and the fixtures are too good to ignore.

Man united fixture run starting FPL GW16

It’s worth noting that only Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have a better xG than Watford’s 11.73 since gameweek 8 when Raneiri took charge, despite facing all three of them in that period.

Further Read: Po pular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards

TEAM DEFENSIVE FORM AND FIXTURES

Now, let’s see how the teams did defensive-wise and how the fixtures are in the upcoming gameweeks with the help of a scatter plot with defensive FDR for the next 5 gameweeks plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) per game on the y-axis.

Let’s also look at how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with xGC per game plotted on the x-axis and goals conceded per game on the y-axis.

Actual vs Expected team performance defence

Now, let’s look at the last 6 gameweeks data.

Actual vs Expected team performance defence last six weeks

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City have the best defensive numbers in the league.
I think Palace’s underperformance on xGC will continue because they have been terrible at defending set-pieces with no team conceding more than their 10. This has come from an xGC Setplay of 6.2, which is again the worst in the league. Also, Guaita hasn’t been good at shot stopping, with an xG Prevented (xGP) of -3.70, meaning he has already let in 3.70 goals more than what was expected of him based on the shots he faced. He was also the worst shot stopper in the previous season with an xGP of -12.50.
I expect Rangnick to improve United’s defence as well. His 2018/19 Leipzig side kept a league high 16 clean sheets in 34 games, conceding the fewest goals (29) from an xGC of 35.1 which was only behind Bayern’s. Before you say Bundesliga tax, it’s worth noting that he inherited Hasenhüttl’s team which was shipping goals left, right and centre.
Though Brighton’s defensive numbers look decent, the loss of Dunk could be a massive blow. He is reportedly ruled out at least for the rest of the year with a knee injury.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy

FORWARDS Preview ahead of FPL GW16

Let’s see how the forwards did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Non-Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) plus Expected Assists (xA) per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included forwards who have played a minimum of 600 minutes in the first 15 gameweeks.

Actual vs Expected team performance forwards

Now, let’s look at the last 6 gameweeks data. Only included forwards who have played a minimum of 300 minutes in that period.

Actual vs Expected team performance forwards last six gameweeks

What are the takeaways?

King (£5.7) or Dennis (£5.7)?

The Watford duo are the talk of the town and rightly so, given Watford’s impressive attacking numbers under Ranieri and some good fixtures coming up, especially the next two (bre bur). Who should we pick though? Doesn’t the above graph (last 6 gameweeks one) make Dennis the obvious pick? Well, not really. That sample size conveniently eliminates King’s best game so far (vs Everton). Let’s look at their stats for the whole season and under Ranieri (gameweek 8-15).

Dennis’ overperformance stands out, scoring 217% of what his npxG suggested over the season. For reference, the league’s best finisher, Son has scored 141% of what was expected of him in the league seasons since 2014/15 according to Understat. Unfortunately, enough data is not available for Dennis to assess his finishing ability. What is also noteworthy is his massive overperformance on xA. This is unsustainable by all means and we could expect a decline in attacking returns unless his expected numbers improve. Also, he could potentially leave soon for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) after being included in the provisional squad.

As for King, he is a decent finisher, scoring 40 non-penalty goals from an npxG of 38.37 in league seasons since 2015/16. And, he crushes Dennis for expected numbers as we just saw. Also, he is on penalties. I would pick King over Dennis.

Further Read: Po pular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | King vs Dennis

Ronaldo (£12.4) is very tempting given United’s great run of fixtures. As we saw above, he has the best expected numbers of all forwards, playing in a sloppy United side. Having watched Rangnick’s teams in the past and given the quality of some of the players at his disposal, I am in no doubt that United would be among the goals in this fixture run. Where better to go than the greatest goalscorer of all time to get a nice chunk of those goals?
Antonio (£7.9) is an exciting option for West Ham’s kind run of fixtures. If you are deterred by the decline in his expected numbers and the lack of goals in the last 6 gameweeks, it’s worth noting that West Ham had the worst fixtures of all teams in that period (avl LIV wol mci BHA CHE). Now, they have a great run of fixtures and as they say, “fixtures bring form”.
Benteke (£6.4) is almost the perfect pick given his impressive numbers and great fixtures, but the presence of Edouard (£6.4) means rotation as we are seeing of late. In my opinion, regular minutes are crucial for our budget picks as rotation is imminent for the top teams during the busy festive period.
Watkins (£7.5) could be a good option from gameweek 17 (nor BUR CHE lee bre), playing in a much improved Villa side under Gerrard.
Kane (£12.2) is a sell given the COVID outbreak at Tottenham and the likelihood of their gameweek 16 game vs Brighton to be postponed. They could be missing some key players in gameweeks 17 and 18 as well owing to isolation.
Toney (£6.7) is isolating after he returned a positive COVID test before Brentford’s last game. He would miss gameweek 16 and potentially gameweek 17. If you are looking to sell for another budget forward, King would be my suggestion.
A word of caution in case you are tempted by Maupay’s (£6.3) numbers – he has scored just 14 non penalty goals from an npxG of 22.04 in the previous two Premier League seasons. Also, there could be rotation as Potter has often flirted with the idea of Trossard as false 9.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations

MIDFIELDERS preview going into FPL GW16

Now, let’s see how the midfielders did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included midfielders who have played a minimum of 600 minutes so far.

Actual vs Expected performance ~ midfielders

Let’s also look at the last 6 gameweeks data. Only included midfielders who have played a minimum of 300 minutes in that period.

Actual vs Expected performance ~ midfielders ~ last six gameweeks

What are the takeaways?

Unsurprisingly, Salah (£13.1) and Jota (£8.0) are up there for expected numbers and face a much improved Villa defence in gameweek 16. Only Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham (who played a game less) have a better xGC than Villa’s 3.32 in the 4 gameweeks under Gerrard despite the fixtures not being the best (BHA cry MCI LEI). Small sample size, but impressive numbers indeed. That said, the attacking numbers suggest that Liverpool and Salah have more than enough firepower to get the job done. I am in the Salah camp for captaincy once again, but Ronaldo and Antonio are viable alternatives if you would wish to go elsewhere.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations

Manchester City midfielders

As we said at the beginning, Man City have a good run of fixtures (WOL LEE new LEI bre), but who is the best pick among their midfielders? Let’s find out. Foden (£8.1) had an injury scare in the midweek UCL game against Leipzig. In Pep’s words, “Phil had problems in the beginning of the game with his ankle, he was taken off as a precaution”. Monitor his press conference for further updates. Now, let’s look at some stats for Foden and the other potential candidates of Bernardo SIlva (£7.6), Gundogan (£7.3), and Grealish (£7.6). Sterling (£10.6) is not an option in my opinion given his price and now that Jesus is back in training.

Man City midfielders comparison ~ Foden vs Silva vs Gundogan vs Grealish

One thing that stands out is Silva’s overperformance on npxG, scoring almost double the goals than what was expected of him. Has he always been an elite finisher? 45 non-penalty goals from an npxG of 42.27 in league seasons from 2014/15 to 2020/21 according to Understat don’t suggest so.

Meanwhile, Gundogan has massively underperformed on his npxG. What does his past record say? He has scored 29 non-penalty goals from an npxG of 25.84 in the same period. Also, he has been massively underperforming on his xA so far. We would see some reversion to the mean for both the players sooner rather than later.

We can talk about form all day, but this level of conversion by Silva is unsustainable even for the best finishers in world football. Don’t get me wrong. He is a fine pick and would probably tick along, but we could be disappointed if we go there hoping for big hauls, unless his expected numbers improve. With penalties in the locker as well when Mahrez isn’t on the pitch, Gundogan is, beyond doubt, a far superior pick IF they were to play similar minutes.

However, the return of De Bruyne (£11.8) could stir up things. I would assume that Silva would be getting significantly more minutes given the form he is in and Pep labeling him the best player in the league at the moment, but who knows with Pep. So, it comes down to potentially more minutes for Silva vs almost double the expected numbers and penalties for Gundogan.

Speaking of expected numbers and minutes, Foden raises his hands up, having got the best of both worlds. Before his injury, he started 7 successive league games and his expected numbers are impressive. There has been some talk about him being a lesser FPL asset when playing on the left-wing and having to provide width. Let’s look at his league career stats when playing as the left-winger/left midfielder as opposed to when playing as the false 9.

As we can see, his expected numbers as LW/LM are really impressive and the difference may not be that much in reality as the sample size is too small for him as false 9. In short, Foden is the best Man City midfielder to target in my opinion. I wouldn’t probably go for him this gameweek though as he may get rested in the weekend after that injury scare.

In case you don’t have the funds to stretch to Foden, I am tempted to play the game of probability and get Gundogan instead of Silva, but that’s a close call. Grealish has also posted good expected numbers so far and he was a regular starter at the beginning of the season before he got injured. He has so far failed to convert his chances well and we don’t have a big enough sample size to assess his finishing in the past. The previous 2 seasons with Villa is all we got and he scored 14 non-penalty goals from an npxG of 10.64. He could probably become an option if he starts converting as in his Villa days.

Further Read: Po pular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | Gundo vs Foden vs Bernardo Silva

Bowen (£6.5) is the best budget midfielder to target ahead of West Ham’s kind run of fixtures. He has been posting some really impressive numbers. He would be on a fair share of setpieces as well if Cresswell fails to make a comeback soon following his injury or gets rested during the busy festive period. Bowen could also play up front if Moyes decides to rest Antonio for a game, given his injury record.
Son (£10.4) is an easy sell despite his recent run of form given the COVID situation at Tottenham and that he is reported to be among the infected players.
Mount’s (£7.5) numbers are impressive, but I am not so keen given Chelsea’s sloppy form of late.
I wouldn’t be looking to buy United midfielders just yet. Bruno (£11.6) seems too expensive if he doesn’t have the penalties. Rashford (£9.4) could hopefully become an option playing up front alongside Ronaldo. Sancho (£8.9) is another one to monitor, playing as one of the 10s in Rangnick’s 4-2-2-2.
Raphinha (£6.7) is a sell given the tough run of fixtures (che mci ARS liv AVL). Bamford being injured again doesn’t help either.
Gallagher’s (£6.1) numbers have fallen off a cliff lately, having played a deeper role in the recent games. I would sell him for Bowen or Man City midfielders, despite Palace’s good fixtures. For those who can’t afford to sell owing to other fires in the team, McArthur nearing a return from injury is good news as Gallagher’s numbers were so much better when playing alongside him.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends

FPL DEFENDERS Preview ahead of FPL GW16

We already saw team defensive data at the beginning. Now, let’s see how the defenders fared attacking-wise so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included defenders who have played a minimum of 600 minutes so far.

Actual vs expected performance ~ Defenders

Let’s also look at the last 6 gameweeks data. Only included defenders who have played a minimum of 300 minutes in that period.

Actual vs expected performance ~ Defenders ~ last six weeks

What are the takeaways?

Assuming you already got Trent (£8.1), Cancelo (£6.8) and James (£6.2), Dias (£6.0) and Walker (5.5) could be options if you wanted to go big at the back, given Man City’s incredible defensive numbers and the great run of fixtures. I would spend the extra £0.5 for Dias, if I could afford it, as he is more nailed. Also, Walker doesn’t usually offer much of an attacking threat. Don’t let the last 6 gameweeks data misguide you as that sample size managed to capture his best games in terms of expected numbers.

On the back of an impressive display against Palace, Dalot (£4.4) could emerge as an exciting option if he nails down that RB spot, given the onus of attacking on fullbacks in Rangnick’s 4-2-2-2. On that note, Wan-Bissaka seems to have injured his wrist. Quoting Rangnick, “Aaron got two knocks so we will have to see how this develops.” Something to monitor.
Guehi (£4.5) could be an option ahead of Palace’s good run of fixtures. He is a bonus point magnet. As we discussed earlier, their defending of setpieces is a worry though.
I think Alonso (£5.7) could be kept for now after being rested in the midweek UCL game and the uncertainty around Dalot (is he gonna be first choice?) and Davies (£4.4), in case you were looking to raise cash for moves elsewhere.

GOALKEEPERS preview ahead of FPL GW16

If the Tottenham vs Brighton game is postponed, I think Sanchez (£4.6) could be sold. The loss of Dunk could be a massive blow to the Brighton defence. I would be looking at de Gea (£5.0) ahead of United’s great run of fixtures that extends upto FPL gameweek 27. As we discussed earlier, I’m optimistic of their clean sheet prospects given Rangnick’s past record. Ramsdale (£5.0) still remains a great option despite Arsenal’s defensive numbers not looking good. He has made up for it with his shot-stopping skills, accumulating save points and bonus points in the process. Only Sá and Mendy have a better xG Prevented than Ramsdale’s +2.00 and he only started playing in gameweek 4.

Thanks for reading the ‘FPL GW16 preview’ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 40,000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 16:

FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
Po pular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 16 blogs.

Visit **Drafthound.com** for more free stats, data, and more!

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW16?

We’ll be covering fixture analysis, differential picks, GW16 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL GW16, our expert panel team reveals, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.