How Big at the Back is Finally Working in FPL and Should we Continue?

Prior to GW 7, I wrote this article on why Big at the Back can be a good WC strategy especially for managers who are looking to chase it ( I was among one of them myself):-

Why Big at The Back a Good Wildcard Strategy Ahead of FPL GW7? (allaboutfpl.com)

This was the last paragraph of the article:

Over the last couple of seasons, we have seen Liverpool (19/20) & City ( 20/21) provide strong defensive assets to FPL managers and made the popular concept of defensive premiums. This season, we already have unreal consistency of both City & Chelsea defence in front of us despite their tougher fixtures. This does make one think as GW 8 reckons, is it the time to go Big at the Back?

My best wishes to FPL managers who take this risk ahead.

I have to say as someone who writes on FPL, it is not always that your philosophies or ideas about how to play the game falls in perfectly in the coming weeks not only for others but for your own team as well. Thankfully, this was the case this time for me. As I wrote that article on GW 6, I was sitting with OR of 675k only to fall further to 831k at the end of GW7 giving me a huge dilemma on whether to continue with my ( preseason) strategy of attacking the huge fixtures swing around GW 12-15 or taking the plunge and following my own advice. Thankfully, I chose the latter.

Furthermore, since I waited for GW 7 to get over, the choice of Chelsea defenders became clearer for me as I went for the then ‘risky’ option of double Chelsea Fullbacks. As I sit now at 27k OR in just 5 weeks as and look back at the madness that has followed, I think it is important to revisit on the principle of Big at Back and whether it is a strategy that can work further.

Big at the back analysis

Top FPL Scores GW 8-12 (Last 5 weeks)

4 out of the top 5 most scoring FPL players have been our expensive defenders who are a core part of the Big at Back strategy. While the unforgettable start of Mo Salah continues as he becomes an unforgettable part of all our teams, the following 4 names were players with relatively lower ORs back at GW 8. Trent had around 20-30% OR while both Chilwell & James were less than 10% OR. Cancelo if I remember well was around 20% as well. Things have changed drastically as week on week of stellar performance have now taken these players into every top manager’s team.

The fact that James almost matched Salah during 5 GW period is really something that continues my excitement about these players. Cancelo while has been a late bloomer, he has just been outstanding the past couple of GWs. Let us not forget the sub-premium midfielders who have complemented our high and expensive defense and given a top-notch performing FPL team and retaining the balance of the same. The likes of ESR & Gallagher has been celebrated on Twitter world heavily but Cornet still remains a star to be appreciated. Bowen is where managers would obviously incline once the fixtures turn again for WHU.

Interestingly, 0 strikers found themselves on this list. Dennis from Watford is the best forward during this time sitting at 12^th place with 30 points at 5.3m price.

Have we been lucky with this expensive defence? ( Yeah, seems so !!)

As we look at xpoints for this period, we can see both James and Chilwell have massively overperformed their xmetrics and Trent has now dropped out of the list. However, 3/10 defenders are already there showcasing that the returns are still legitimate. The only person to drop out was Trent who seems to have picked up another tune in the last 2 weeks and seems highly undroppable.

Fixtures Analysis ~ GW8 to GW13 and GW13 to GW18

 Back when we wrote the original article, the CS Odds favored City & Chelsea heavily in addition to the brilliant attacking potential of these defenders. Do we see the same continuing in the coming 6 FPL gameweeks:-

As we can see while City & Liverpool seem to have the better fixtures, Chelsea have dropped out with United & West Ham coming on in the coming 3 weeks.  While the case for Reece James remains strong especially given his form, the fact that Chilwell has got injured might have helped the owners from eventual misery as we look for logical alternatives now. 

Should we continue with Big at Back or Modify?

These are top 20 defenders over GWs 8-12 as we look for suitable Chilwell alternatives. 

Initial observations for replacement are as follows:-

• Continue with Chelsea double- Alonso or Rudiger
• WHU defenders get a look through with Zouma/Johnson and Creswell providing valuable options across price ranges
• Crystal Palace boys are coming up strong with Andersen, Guehi & Mitchell
• Do we have a look at Reguilon or Liverpool double up with Van Djik

As we look at fixtures, double up on Chelsea does look risky with Chelsea FDR dropping significantly. Alonso did have a bright start at the start of the season but there are news of Saul being given a chance at LWB position having some exposure of this position for Atletico.

WHU does provide an interesting dilemma while their FDR does not look very good, they have been shining over the last 5 weeks despite having much tougher FDR.  If we time our move from Chilwell post this man city fixture, WHU actually move to the top 4 in defense. Looking below at GW 14-19, we have some clarity on why a return to West Ham Boys might not be a bad idea. 

FPL fixture analysis between FPL GW14 and 19

To add to this, it seems we have return of Cresswell this season. Cresswell is perhaps one of the most underrated lynchpins of the Big at Back Boys, having had a stellar season last year and things are looking better and better for WHU ahead. Looking at his metrics and positioning below, Cresswell is already exceeding the 2020/21 metrics. I think at 14% ownership, Cresswell is a perfect replacement for Chilwell (rhyming !!, cost range & expected points wise !)

A look at fixtures from GW 14 are not looking very bright for Palace anymore. While Guehi & Anderson are solid picks but there is some sense in not going for them in this run where they fall out of the top 10 fixture-wise.

Finally, we have some choices who are not looking good on form but with fixtures and positioning, do look interesting. 

• Reguilon- While Conte start has not been as bright for Spurs as one would like, Reguilon does fulfill all the inert criteria that we look for in our FPL defensive choices. His positioning of late has been very advanced. Given the fixtures do look promising for Spurs, Reguilon is a bet we are making on the fact that he gets more involved attacking wise as Spurs won’t be as squeaky clean at back as Chelsea was.

• Van Djik- A proven strong defender with assured starts, Van Djik has not hit the heights of previous Liverpool seasons as FPL asset. While Clean sheets seems to be finding its way back for Liverpool defence, Trent & Salah have been hogging the bonus meaning Van Djik does not seem as lucrative an option as in previous years.

• Return of Luke Shaw:- Having started this year as most popular defensive choice and an over 50% ownership, Shaw has found his way down alongside most United assets as season progressed. Lack of clean sheets has been a constant trouble and to add to it, Shaw has been dry attacking wise as we can see.
  
  What does help his cause is the selection of a certain- Ragnick. The coach likes an exemplary style of Geggenpressing & should create constant positions for Shaw to improve his attacking metrics while United looks to play with better defensive structure. The fixtures do look attractive now & at 5.2m, Shaw is now at a similar price to Reguilon. 

My thoughts-

Having looked at most replacement options, I feel Cresswell seems a conservative but strong replacement. I overlooked him as an asset last year with a lot of regrets, that does play to my mind again. Both Reguilon & Shaw are huge attacking options for people looking to chase the crowd. Overall, I think it makes sense to keep Chilwell on the bench this week & plan this movement next week as we have more info on these choices. This does relieve some price from Big at Back but overall, I feel the philosophy can continue well even without Chilwell in the coming weeks. 

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 13:

Top FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW13 (Foden vs Jota vs B Silva, King vs Benteke vs Pukki)
FPL GW13 Preview | Chilwell Replacements | Forward, Mids Analysis
FPL GW13 Top Transfer Ins and Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
FPL GW13 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell Ahead of Deadline
Tactical Analysis: Man Utd under Michael Carrick
FPL GW12 Sunday Fixtures Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
FPL GW12 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 13 blogs.

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