FPL GW13 Preview | Chilwell Replacements | Forward, Mids Analysis

In this FPL GW13 preview article, let’s try to solve our transfer dilemmas ahead of FPL GW13 with the help of some scatter plots and other stats. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW13 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has an 11/12 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW12. Stay tuned for the GW10 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 13 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”22″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW13 preview

TEAM ATTACKING FORM AND FIXTURES preview ahead of FPL GW13

First up, let’s see how the teams fared so far attacking wise and how the fixtures are in the upcoming gameweeks with the help of a scatter plot with attacking fixture difficulty ranking (FDR) for the next 6 gameweeks according to Fantasy Football Scout’s Season Ticker plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals (xG) per game on the y-axis.

Now that we have seen the expected numbers for all teams, let’s look at how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with xG per game plotted on the x-axis and goals scored per game on the y-axis.

• Liverpool are way ahead of the pack for attacking numbers.
• Manchester City, Chelsea and West Ham complete the top 4.
• Conte’s Tottenham showed promising signs in the second half against Leeds after a bland first half performance.
• Perhaps unsurprisingly, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle seemed to be playing on the front foot as he suggested in his first interview and much like his Bournemouth sides in the past.

TEAM DEFENSIVE FORM AND FIXTURES preview ahead of FPL GW13

Now, let’s see how the teams did defensive-wise and how the fixtures are in the upcoming gameweeks with the help of a scatter plot with defensive FDR for the next 6 gameweeks plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) per game on the y-axis.

Let’s also look at how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with xGC per game plotted on the x-axis and goals conceded per game on the y-axis.

• Manchester City are way ahead on xGC but Chelsea conceded fewer goals, with both teams keeping 8 clean sheets. We would probably see some reversion to the mean in Chelsea’s future performances. However, it’s not that their expected numbers are terrible. They are still the 2nd best in the league for xGC.
• Palace’s defence has impressed and is 3rd in the league for xGC. Set-pieces seem to be their Achilles heel though, having conceded the most xG of all teams from setplays (5.4).
• Villa looked solid at the back under Gerrard, conceding an xG of just 0.52 against Brighton.

DEFENDERS Preview ahead of FPL GW13

We already saw team defensive data at the beginning. Now, let’s see how the defenders fared attacking wise so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Non Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) plus Expected Assists (xA) per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included defenders who have played a minimum of 400 minutes.

What are the takeaways?

• It is needless to say that Trent (£7.8), James (£6.1) and Cancelo (£6.6) are the defenders to own at the moment. I would sell the likes of Dias (£6.0), Rudiger (£5.9) and Azpilicueta (5.8) to get any of these three. Though James has been massively overperforming and we could expect some reversion to the mean, his expected numbers are still great.

Chilwell (£6.0) replacements?

There are reports that Chilwell is set to miss at least the rest of the year with suspected ACL damage. Let’s look at some potential replacements.

1. In case you don’t own any of Trent, James and Cancelo, that is an easy fix. If you don’t own more than one of these three, Trent > James > Cancelo would be my order of priority.
2. Alonso (£5.6) is a very tempting option if Chilwell is out for an extended period of time. Though his numbers are dwarfed by James, it’s worth noting that he played only the first 6 gameweeks fixtures (CRY ars liv AVL tot MCI) which are ranked 19th on attacking FDR for that period. Also, he would likely start most games now that there is no real competition on that side.
3. Reguilon (£5.1) and Emerson Royal (£4.9) could be great differential options, playing as wing-backs in Conte’s system. If I were to pick one out of these two, it would be Reguilon. In the 2 games under Conte, he seemed to be better at arriving into threatening positions in the box. Also, he appears to be the better crosser. 2 gameweeks data is a tiny sample size and should be weighted very lightly, but Reguilon’s npxG+xA per 90 of 0.69 in that period is only bettered by Trent’s 0.74 among defenders.
4. Mitchell (£4.5) and Guehi (£4.5) could be good options in a good looking Palace defence, if you wanted to go cheaper. The attacking threat is negligible for both, but Guehi has a greater potential for bonus points.

• Lamptey (£4.4) has impressed in the limited minutes so far, but I’m skeptical considering his recurrent hamstring injuries. I think his minutes will be managed during the busy festive period. 
• Ait Nouri (£4.3) has also impressed of late and is also on some set-pieces. However, the fixtures are terrible after the next 2. Also, the presence of Marcal (£4.4m) means we might see some rotation in December. 
• Targett (£4.7) and Cash (£5.1) could hopefully be options again if Gerrard improves the VIlla defence after encouraging signs in the first game. It’s worth noting that full-backs were heavily involved in the attack for Rangers under him. Targett was on some set-pieces as well in the Brighton game.

MIDFIELDERS Preview ahead of FPL GW13

Now, let’s see how the midfielders did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included midfielders who have played a minimum of 400 minutes.

What are the takeaways?

• I think there should be no betting against Salah (£13.0) for captaincy given the kind of form Salah and Liverpool are in.
• With Firmino sidelined with injury and Salah and Mane (£12.0) leaving for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in early January, Jota (£7.5) should be a priority transfer this gameweek in my opinion. Let’s look at his per 90 expected numbers this season and last season in the Premier League and Champions League when compared to Salah’s courtesy to FBREF.

Jota at that price is too good a gift to ignore whenever he has a chance of playing regular minutes and that too for the best attacking side in the league. Also, don’t let his early-season misses deceive you into thinking that he is a below-par finisher. He has scored 41 non-penalty goals from an npxG of 38.3 from 2018/19 onwards in the Premier League, Champions League, and Europa League games according to FBREF.

Foden (£8.3): keep or sell?

It has been frustrating for his owners after blanking in the last 3 gameweeks and being deployed out wide in the last 2 games. If that wasn’t enough, he went off with a knock in the last league game and was not involved in the Champions League game vs PSG. Pep on Foden’s absence: “Phil had a problem in the last game with Everton. Yesterday he had a problem in training so couldn’t play.”

There has been no suggestion of a serious injury and hopefully, we will get more information soon. Foden’s numbers are impressive and Manchester City has a great run of fixtures. Does his attacking threat drop though when playing on the left as compared to playing as the false 9? Let’s look at his expected numbers from this season and last season in the Premier League and Champions League courtesy to FBREF.

The numbers may be skewed by the limited minutes playing as the false 9 and the in-game positional changes, but they suggest that Foden is a better FPL asset when playing as the false 9. However, his numbers when playing out wide on the left are still impressive. Also, we could see him go back to the false 9 position once Grealish (£7.7) is back.

So, I would be in no rush to sell him as it stands. That said, I would sell for Jota. Per 90 numbers are much better for Jota, meaning he is a better FPL asset if they were to play similar minutes. Even if Firmino recovers fast, I don’t think he will be rushed as it is a recurrent hamstring injury and he cannot be put at the risk of a re-injury with Salah and Mane going away for the AFCON in early January.

With the games coming thick and fast, I think Firmino won’t be a threat for Jota’s minutes for the next 4 game weeks. Meanwhile, I could imagine Foden being rested for a game in that period owing to his “problem”

• Gundogan’s (£7.2) expected numbers are even more impressive than Foden. He has been attacking the box with his intelligent movement. There is a massive underperformance, but I wouldn’t worry too much because the underperformance has been mostly on the assist front (0 assists from an xA of 1.8 as opposed to 2 non penalty goals from an npxG of 2.79). Also, he is a good finisher, scoring 29 non penalty goals from an npxG of 24.2 from 2017/18 onwards in the Premier League and Champions League according to FBREF. He could be on penalties as well with Mahrez out of the first team picture. That said, minutes could be a worry once De Bruyne (£11.8) is back after his isolation. Talking of minutes, Bernardo Silva (£7.2) puts his hands up. He could be near undroppable in the current form. However his underlying numbers are significantly less when compared to Gundogan and Foden. In short, I am not a great fan of either Gundogan or Bernardo Silva for different reasons.
• Gallagher (£6.0) has been thriving in the box-to-box role in a good looking Palace side and has a good fixture run ahead. He is the best budget midfielder in my opinion.
• Bowen’s (£6.4) numbers look really impressive. He is on some set-pieces as well. He could be a prime target when West Ham’s fixtures improve in gameweek 16.

• Only 4 players have scored more goals than Cornet (£6.1) and he has only started 6 games so far. However, there is some massive overperformance there, scoring 5 non penalty goals from an npxG of just 1.04. Let’s look at his numbers from 2015/16 to 2020/21 to see if he has always been a great finisher.
• He scored 31 non penalty goals in League 1 in that period from an npxG of 25.97, scoring 119% of what was expected of him. Son is the best finisher in the league, scoring 141% of what his expected numbers suggested. So, we can expect some reversion to the mean in the upcoming weeks. That said, many players go on such hot streaks and FPL is also about taking advantage of them and hopping off if the returns dry up as with Lingard last season.
• Smith-Rowe (£5.9) has massively overperformed, scoring 4 non penalty goals from an npxG of 1.56. Though he is unlikely to keep scoring at this rate, I think he will tick along nicely given his knack of finding space in and around the box using his intelligent movement.

• Mbeumo (£5.6) has been letting us down lately despite the good expected numbers. Is he a bad finisher? According to infogol, he scored 24 goals from an xG of 19.94 in the 2019/20 and 2020/21 Championship seasons combined. Also, he has been terribly unlucky this season, hitting the woodwork 6 times. While the lack of returns against Norwich and Newcastle could be frustrating, I think he is an easy hold against Everton who are 3rd worst for xGC over the last 6 gameweeks.
• Now that Lukaku and Werner are back from injuries, Havertz (£8.1) is an easy sell. Also, he was taken off at Leicester with a hamstring issue.
• Though Raphinha (£6.7) looks perfectly fine on the graph with a good amount of attacking returns which is backed by good expected numbers, that is not the case if you dig deeper. He has scored 5 goals (some incredible and some fluky ones) from an xG of just 1.89. Only Cornet has overperformed more on xG and it is unsustainable by all means. Also, he has zero assists from an xA of 2.38 (playing alongside poor finishers?). No player has underperformed more on xA.
• That is the curious case of Raphinha. He is highly unlikely to keep up this level of attacking returns. The fixtures (bha CRY BRE che mci ARS liv) don’t look good either. I would sell if that enables you to get Jota, Kane or a premium defender. On a positive note, he is almost shooting on sight (4th among all players for shots) and could hopefully get some returns in the next 3 games given the dip in defensive performances of Brentford and Brighton of late, after which you could sell for Bowen.

FORWARDS Preview ahead of FPL GW13

Now, let’s see how the forwards did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included forwards who have played a minimum of 400 minutes.

What are the takeaways?

Kane (£12.2) or Son (£10.4)?

Son was already putting up good performances in a poor side under Nuno while Kane’s numbers were poor. Picking up the latter would have been mostly in the hope that a world-class manager who always got the best out of his center-forwards would turn his season around. Though Son was significantly cheaper, picking Kane also had its benefits like penalty duties and an easy switch to Lukaku (£11.5) or Ronaldo (£12.4) if the move backfired.

I thought the decision was like splitting hairs, but one more game later, I am firmly in the Kane camp now. Given his positioning and the runs he was making against Leeds, we could expect goals in the upcoming gameweeks. Meanwhile, Son had a quiet game. That said, it’s totally fine if you hopped on Son early. He is still a good pick and has set-pieces in his locker. It’s still early days and Tottenham are a work in progress. Son (and Kane) could probably benefit from adding a playmaker (Ndombele or Lo Celso) into that midfield and a switch to 3-5-2.

What to do with Michail Antonio?

• It has been frustrating for Antonio (£8.2) owners of late with just a single attacking return in the last 6 gameweeks as opposed to 9 in the first 6 (despite missing gameweek 5 through suspension). Though he still looks good on the graph, there has been a sharp decline in the expected numbers as well. His npxG+xA per 90 dropped from 0.86 in gameweeks 1-6 to 0.38 in gameweeks 7-12. Shotmaps below.

These numbers are still decent, but with Man City and Chelsea in the next 3 gameweeks, I am open to selling him for a budget forward to fund moves for the likes of Jota, Kane or a premium defender. I also like a short-term punt on Wilson (£7.4) who has Norwich and Burnley at home in gameweeks 14 and 15. 

• Vardy (£10.6) has been frustrating to own lately, blanking in the last 4 gameweeks. There has been a sharp decline in the expected numbers as well. His npxG+xA per 90 dropped from 0.56 in gameweeks 1-8 to 0.2 in gameweeks 9-12. However, it’s important to contextualise this as the latter is a small sample size of 326 minutes.
• Such a small sample size should be weighted lightly as well. In gameweek 9, he was playing through injury against Brentford (when they were defensively good) and had to be taken off at half time. He then played a much improved Arsenal, Leeds (who can often make it difficult) and Chelsea. So, it is not a bad idea to hold him given the great run of fixtures.

Budget forwards analysis ahead of FPL GW13

Toney (£6.7) is a hold in my opinion. He is the talisman in a good attacking side with decent fixtures. His numbers are okayish and he is on penalties. More importantly, he would get regular minutes which is very important as rotation is imminent for the top teams during the busy festive period. If you are in the market for a budget forward,

Benteke (£6.4) is almost the perfect pick given his impressive numbers and good fixtures, but the presence of Edouard (£6.5) could mean rotation when fixture congestion kicks in.

King’s (£5.6) numbers are really impressive and could potentially be on penalties after Sarr (£6.0) missed twice against Manchester United. Watford face Chelsea and Man City in the next 3, which is followed by a good run of fixtures. However, they are probably the most affected by AFCON with Sarr and Dennis (£5.3) among players leaving.

Pukki (£5.8) could be an alternative. His numbers have been terrible so far and he is more of a hopeful pick given the quality of the manager and some of the players around. However, it’s probably a risk worth taking. He is the talisman who offers you regular minutes and is on penalties. Minutes could be a worry with Armstrong (£6.0) now that Broja (£5.0) is back. Hwang’s (£5.8) fixtures are terrible after the next 2 (nor BUR).

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 13:

FPL GW13 Top Transfer Ins and Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
Top FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
FPL GW13 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell Ahead of Deadline
Tactical Analysis: Man Utd under Michael Carrick
FPL GW12 Sunday Fixtures Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
FPL GW12 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 13 blogs.

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