Hi and welcome back to my FPL GW8 Matchups article where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the PremierLeague to gain some insight in navigating our FPL decisions.
Images and data sourced from @FFScout(fantasyfootballscout.co.uk) and @Fotmob. Catch the video version of matchups on @netththaul with @fpllens and @fplmariner
Going back to matchups roots this week with a more traditional FPL Matchups analysis. This week I am looking at 2 matches with an eye on some specific dynamics:
- MCI mids and their roles
- Effect of Hwang & Watkins on WOL & AVL
MCI has been the talk of the town this week with many calling for a 5-0 thrashing at home vs one of the weakest defenses in the division. While in line with recent history, this remains quite the tall order. I was therefore compelled to look back at the 4 PL matches played between them in the last 2 years. I noted the players who returned and their position. MCI scored a total of 16 goals in those 4 matches.
When looking at the positions from where MCIs goals came in those matches, 6 goals were scored from players playing each flank (R/L) and 4 goals were scored by players playing centrally. The significant difference is in the creativity. 5 assists came from the right, 4 came from the center and only 1 came from the left. This trend could continue as BUR have conceded the joint 2nd most chances from their left (34) as opposed to 28 from the right and 23 from the middle. The question, as we all know, is who will play on that right side where there seems to be more ways to points. Jesus likely won’t feature due to a World Cup Qualifier late Thursday night against Uruguay, and Torres is out for several weeks with a leg fissure.
We will begin with a tactical overview of MCI attack versus BUR defense. Here we can look at how the zonal stats appear in the heatmaps. We begin with the team matchup, comparing MCI chances created to BUR chances conceded.
We can see City’s strengths in attack match up nicely with Burnley’s vulnerabilities in defense in 3 key areas indicated by the purple shapes. These areas are just inside the left side of the box, just outside the top left side of the box, and just inside the right corner of the box.
Now we can match the player heat maps to the matchup. Here I examine 3 elements of the player’s game.
- Passes received to see where the player’s teammates are looking for him when attacking
- Chances created for assist potential
- xG shots for goal potential
MANCHESTER CITY vs BURNLEY
KEVIN DE BRUYNE
There is only one place we can start and that is with the Belgian. Kevin De Bruyne certainly has not passed the eye test recently despite getting lucky with a goal against Liverpool that was deflected by Matip. For reference of how unlikely he was to score, the shot had an xGoT of .04.
However, we all know his potential, and a match against BUR could be the perfect prescription for him. KDBs heat map shouldn’t surprise us. He receives the ball in his customary areas to the left and right of central midfield, and he occasionally drops to link play as well.
It is interesting to note that he is receiving the ball more on the left side of the field, but his chances created are scattered quite evenly.
The xG shots map show that KDB has not had any big chances and his shots have been low xG shots. Despite Receiving most of his passes on the left, KDBs shots mostly come from the right side. As the team settles with left sided players like Foden and Grealish, I expect KDB to focus more on the right side, which bodes well for him given the how the matchup on that side has played out over the last 2 seasons.
PHIL FODEN
Foden’s passes received map is exciting because it directly corresponds to an area from where BUR tend to concede chances. The lack of activity in the chances created heat map isn’t ideal as it raises concerns that he has limited avenues to points.
I like what Foden can create for himself. His penetrating dribbles are difficult to deal with when he is playing with confidence. To me, Foden is an upside pick for his goal threat, but his lack of involvement otherwise could be a slight concern for some managers/
RIYAD MAHREZ
The Algerian has had a fractured start to the season playing only 155 minutes thus far, subbing on 4 times and starting only once. With Gabriel Jesus likely not returning in time to feature this weekend, and with Torres injured, Mahrez could be looking at some consistent time on MCIs right side during this run of kind fixtures.
Mahrez’ heat map should look familiar. His role is to draw defenders wide as shown by the dark orange near the right sideline. This should open a pocket for KDB between the LCB and the LB. If KDB can push into that space, then Mahrez cuts inside behind him and acts as creator. A familiar pattern that could be gold given that BUR concede chances from outside the box in that area.
Mahrez’ shot volume and big chances in limited minutes is appealing. 7 shots in 155 minutes, including 3 in the box is not bad at all, certainly not in this fixture.
FERRÁN TORRES
Pour one out. Torres suffered a leg injury in international duty, but I had already clipped the images so I’m going to pour them out here for my homeboy. I’ll leave this (now useless) analysis up to the you if you are at all compelled. Short of it – I liked him a lot before the injury.
MCI presents an enormous opportunity for those who have the cojones to invest early and the luck that you land on the right side of rotation and variance. For me, the investment would probably be in KDB or Foden, hoping Foden plays as a 9.
ASTON VILLA vs WOLVES
Wolves
The matchup seems to line up nice here for WOL, especially centrally around the top of the box – Jiménez country. Villa has shown some vulnerability on the left inside side of their defense and this is where Jiménez has played this season… until recently.
El Macho played GWs more in the center and right side for GWs 1-5 while Adama was isolated on the left side. This tactic was designed for the Mexican to draw defenders out of position by having him check into midfield to link play. This would often leave Adama 1v1 on the left side. Adding the handicap for his finishing, however, the advantage was taken away.
In GWs 6 and 7, Jiménez’ touch map shifts to the center and right. These are the matches in which Hwang Hee-chan started. Whether it’s tactical design by Lage, or just the nature of their understanding, Hwang and Jiménez have changed how Wolves attack.
The chances created heat maps confirm this shift to the left. For now it is just a shift, not a transformation. Tip of the hat to the 2 big chances created by S á. 1 assist to Jiménez and 1 missed big chance by Traoré.
Villa’s defense has been respectable of late, and they are more vulnerable on their left side. I fear Hwang’s influence on the team, shifting the attack to the left may hurt Wolves tactically in this matchup. Hwang provides some great value and is showing potential to haul, but this tactical uncertainty, along with his propensity to be inconsistent, make him a risky FPL asset imo. Inconsistency and tactics could make him prone to rotation and there is no easy to place to move from his price point at £5.6m.
Villa
I’m just going to come right out and say I am confused by Villa. So this is basically me sharing my confusion.
Here I am comparing GWs 1-3 and 4-7 to see what Ollie Watkins’ effect has been on the team in general and Danny Ings specifically.
When looking at some stats for those two periods please keep in mind there is 1 extra match in GWs 4-7 compared to 1-3. This is only relevant for goals, assists and clean sheets. It’s interesting that most stats improved with the introduction of Watkins, except possession decreased.
This next heat map shocked me. Ings was everywhere the first 3 GWs. Villa paid a price for this in that they lost their target at the tip of the spear, but Ings still managed a couple of goals.
When Watkins was introduced as a starter in GW4, Ings’ involvement caved to a spot on the left flank next to the sideline.
I initially thought perhaps Watkins had taken up a central position, but his heat map shows him playing alongside Ings. Watkins is slightly inside and ahead of Ings in term of where he receives passes and this positioning could block Ings’ ability to penetrate. It’s a strange tactical set up, but the stats, other than possession, have improved like this.
There is a vague alignment in the matchup against Wolves as they are most vulnerable behind Semedo. The partnership on the left-hand side could work out for Villa this week, but overall, I believe it is something that Dean Smith will have to figure out if he wants a cohesive attack.
MxG
Reminder: MxG is a metric I have come up with to try to get a more accurate representation of a goal scoring opportunity. In GW 7, this metric came closer to the actual goals scored for 17 out of 20 teams. Here are the predictions for GW8. Stay tuned to @NetThatHaul for more on this metric in the next couple of weeks.
THE ALCHEMIST – KEVIN DE BRUYNE
““One is loved because one is loved. No reason is needed for loving.”
― Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist
An unusual Alchemist pick this week because KDB is a premium FPL asset. Despite his quality, he has been maligned for a slow start since his return from injury. While he has taken some time to regain form, I believe this criticism will turn into a reminder that he is one of the best players on the planet and is facing perhaps the best matchup he could face from a historical and tactical perspective. His ownership of only 2.2% makes him a an ideal candidate to remind everyone of the magic he brings as the Alchemist.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 8:
FPL GW8 Fixtures To Target With Team Analysis
Budget Forwards to Consider Ahead of FPL Gameweek 8
Fixture Analysis for GW8 Wildcard
Teams and Players to Target for the next 5 Gameweeks in FPL
FPL GW8 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW8 ~ Son vs Vardy, Mbuemo vs Toney and Foden vs Grealish
FPL GW8 Double-Digit Returns Metrics-Wildcard Special
Best FPL Defenders To Target Ahead Of FPL GW8
Players In Focus Based On Eye Test Ahead Of FPL Gameweek 8
FPL GW8 Wildcard Structure and Best Possible Drafts and Combinations
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 8 blogs.
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