When to Play Your First FPL Wildcard? GW7/8 or GW12 | Fixture Guide

Fantasy Premier League 21/22 is well and truly underway. Managers are busy planning their teams and strategies each week. While planning the strategies, the chips come into action, and probably the most popular chip of FPL is the Wildcard. I’m going to help you to decide when is the best time to play the first Wildcard if you still have it in your bag with three options FPL GW7, 8 or 12.

Before going into the strategies, let us go through the basic wildcard information once again.

Throughout the season, we are provided with two Wildcards in total.

The first one expires in the very last GW of December. So, it must be used before January. So take note that, the first WC will be lost if you don’t use it. 

The second Wildcard is going to be available from January after the first one expires. It can be used any time until the end of the season (GW38).

Here, I’ll talk about

• When to play your Wildcard
• Fixtures to target
• Fixture guide for Wildcarding in GW7/GW8
• Fixture guide for Wildcarding in GW12
• Players to target

When to play your first FPL wildcard ~ GW7 or GW8 or GW12?

Actually, there’s no specific time to play your wildcard. Especially, the first one at least. Before starting the season, it’s hard to predict how different teams will play and who’s going to perform or not. A lot of changes take place even after the season gets started. People start to get more information about the starting lineups and can assess the teams even more deeply. Sometimes, you’d want to take in the players who are in great form or good budget enablers as quickly as possible. That’s what the first wildcard is here for to shape up your team perfectly.

 So, to sum it up, naturally, you should play your first wildcard whenever you feel you are missing out all the big point hauls continuously and it doesn’t seem to be improved any time soon. Normally, I think if you get below weekly average points for consecutive 3-4 weeks, your team probably doesn’t look good to go for a longer period of time. Another popular way is, when you need/want to take hits more than 12 points (-12) to shape up, that’s when you should activate your wildcard. But you never should be reactionary and play the wildcard out of anger after one bad gameweek.

Other than the aforementioned reasons, there’s another popular way to play the wildcard is when some teams get a good or bad fixture swing. For example, from GW7, Chelsea has a very good fixture swing so you’d probably want to take their players in your team from then. Also, you’d want to play the wildcard during an international break because of the potential injuries players might face after coming from the break. Not only that, during that period you’ll get an extra week to bank some profits if you’re lucky and smart. Now integrate the last two, viola! You’ve found your wildcard strategy: ‘fixture swings + international break’.

 Now if you want to target the ‘fixture swings & international break’ strategy to play your wildcard, the best two options are GW8 (perhaps GW7?) or GW12. Let’s get into details now and see how to make this plan a successful one.

Benefits of FPL GW7 Wildcard:

• Getting into the Chelsea fixture swing right away
• Better for team value as Chelsea players will rise and MUN players will fall
• Lukaku, arguably the best captaincy option
• Spurs has AVL(GW7) and NEW(GW8) if you want to take Spurs players early

Benefits of FPL GW8 Wildcard:

• Wildcarding during the International break is safe for potential injury problems
• Chance of taking one or two week punt and transfer out MCI & LIV players before getting them back
• Holding MUN assets against EVE(H) GW7 which isn’t bad fixture at all
• Can hold onto Sarr and Antonio for GW7 who’s got good fixture in GW7 and poor afterwards

Benefits of FPL GW12 Wildcard:

• More data to assess 
• MUN, MCI, Spurs, LIV fixture swing 
• Longer easy fixture runs than GW8
• More predictable lineups and form
• Another International break 

Fixtures to target for FPL Points

Note: All data & stats mentioned in the article are upto GW5

Worst defensive performance so far this season

Most xG Conceded

• NOR 13.0
• NEW 12.4
• LEE 12.3
• ARS 11.0

Most Goals Conceded

• NOR 16
• NEW 14
• LEE 14
• BUR 11

Most Shots on Target Allowed

• LEE 39
• NEW 33
• NOR 30
• BUR 28

Clearly, NEW, NOR, LEE & BUR are the teams to target as they’ve got the worst defensive performance so far this season. Early in the season, ARS also struggled defensively but they’re turning things around recently now.

Further Read: FPL GW6 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations

Best defensive performance till GW5 

Most Clean Sheets (CS) this season

• CHE 4
• MCI 4
• LIV 4
• BRE 3

Least xG Conceded

• MCI 2.7
• BRE 3.6
• AVL 4.9
• LIV 5.1

Least Goals Conceded

• MCI 1
• CHE 1
• LIV 1
• BRE 2

Least Shots on Target Allowed

• MCI 5
• BHA 13
• BRE 13
• LIV 15

One thing for sure, newly promoted Brentford has been surprisingly good defensively. Moreover, all the big names like MCI, CHE, and LIV have all been good at defending as expected.

Further Read: FPL GW6 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW5

Fixture guide for wildcarding in FPL GW7/GW8

Chelsea

Quite easily, Chelsea has the best fixture swing from GW7 as I mentioned earlier. 

Good run of fixtures GW7-GW12

Though they have good fixture in GW7 against Southampton, I suggest playing the wildcard in GW8 because of the international break. Also, SOU have been pretty good defensively against big teams this season. For one GW, the managers would have to sacrifice an asset or two from Chelsea and hope they don’t punish them badly. In this case, managers can use their FT (Free Transfer) to take at least one of their players to cover for the GW if possible.

Chelsea Defensive records

They’ve clearly been one of the best defensive sides since Tuchel took over. Let’s see a stat to understand how massively they’ve improved at their back.
Most clean sheets in all competitions by teams in Europe’s big five leagues since Thomas Tuchel’s first game in charge of Chelsea:

24 – Chelsea 

17 – Man City 

15 – Sevilla, Monaco 

14 – Lille, Man Utd

This season, they’ve kept 4 CS (Clean Sheet) in their first 5 games where they faced moderately difficult teams as well. Chelsea have conceded only one goal against Liverpool this season. Their xGC (XG Conceded) is 5.5 which is the 5^th best in League and some might say they’ve been lucky to not concede more than 1 goal with that xGC. Against Liverpool the xGC was 2.7, so apart from that match (considering one bad day at the office) their xGC is 2.8 which is more than acceptable given the opponents they faced. Personally, I think things will obviously change when they face easier fixtures in the future.

Chelsea Attacking Records

Chelsea Scored 12 (2^nd best) goals so far this season and they’ve been very clinical in their finishing. They over-performed their xG by 4.4 [xG 7.6]. They are the 1^st in Goals per shot 0.16 and Goals per Shots on target 0.46 as well.

Chelsea Odds of scoring 2.5+ goals

Manchester United

Bad run of fixtures GW9-GW13

Another reason to play your wildcard in GW8 could be the bad run of fixtures for MUN. Most of the managers have Shaw and Ronaldo in their team. To get CHE players they will have to let go some big names and MUN could be the team to avoid in that period of time.

But if you want to double up on CR7 and Lukaku, then you’d probably need a wildcard anyway to free up the fund.

WOLVES

Moderately good run of fixtures GW7-GW14

Apart from GW5, Wolves have been defensively very solid. I suggest the managers to assess GW6 and GW7 to decide whether to invest in Wolves defense or not. For now, they’re not performing to the expectations yet.

Manchester City

Good run of fixtures GW8-GW10 

MCI have been the best defensive side so far in the season which was seen clearly in the earlier stats. Many say, they’re one of the teams who are fixture proof. Moreover, managers surely wouldn’t want to miss out on those hauls against easy opponents. The problem is the infamous “Pep Roulette”.

Arsenal

Good run of fixtures GW8-GW13 [apart from GW12]

Improvement in xG Conceded:

GW1-GW3 xGC per 90 mins 2.66

GW4-GW6 xGC per 90 mins 0.96

After a bad start in this season, Arsenal are slowly turning things around. They’ve now kept two back-to-back Clean Sheets (CS). 

Southampton

Good run of fixtures GW8-GW12

SOU have defended against the good attacking sides very well this season. They’ve kept two clean sheets in their last two games against mighty MCI and in form WHU.

LEEDS

Good run of fixtures GW7-GW11

Bielsa’s Leeds are fun to watch because of their attacking playing style. They face some easy opponents from GW7 and while using your wildcard, one or two attacking players from their team could be very handy if still don’t own them already.

Fixture guide for wildcarding in GW12

Manchester United

Long run of good fixtures GW12-GW22 [apart from GW13]

Liverpool

Long run of good fixtures GW12-GW26 [apart from GW18, GW21]

Manchester City

Good run of fixtures GW12-GW18

Spurs

Small run of good fixtures GW12-GW15

Leicester City

Small run of good fixtures GW13-GW16

Arsenal

Bad run of fixtures GW12-GW17

Verdict: The decision will depend on the current structure of your team. If your team is in a good shape and you can manage to get CHE assets with your FTs, I think you should hold onto your WC until GW12. There are more teams who have longer easy fixture runs from GW12 than in GW8. Also, by then, you’ll get a bigger dataset to work on. But don’t push it, if you think you’re team needs fixing then it’s absolutely fine to play your wildcard in GW8. Also, GW12 might be too late for you to bounce back in the ranks if you’re struggling.

Players to target

Chelsea 

As most of the managers are planning to bring in CHE players in their WC in GW8, I’ll try to dig into CHE team more than others. 

A comparison of Chelsea defensive assets:

Antonio Rüdiger (£5.6m)

• Nailed on
• Attacking threat: Low
• 10.6% TSB
• Price: Good value
• Safe pick

Marcos Alonso (£5.8m)

• Not 100% nailed on
• Attacking threat: Very high
• 17.6% TSB
• Somewhat risky pick but higher ceiling

Reece James (£5.6m)

• Not nailed
• Attacking threat: Very high
• 7.6% TSB
• Price: Good value 
• High risk high gain

César Azpilicueta (£6.0m)

• Rotational risk with fixture congestion
• Attacking threat: Medium
• 3.9% TSB
• Price: High 
• Avoid if you don’t have good bench

Andreas Christensen (£5.0m)

• Rotational risk
• Attacking threat: Low
• 3.0% TSB
• Price: Fair
• Good option only for doubling up CHE DEF

Thiago Silva (£5.4m)

• Rotational risk
• Attacking threat: Low
• 2.4% TSB
• Avoid

Lastly, Edouard Mendy (£6.0m) can be an option for us to think about. But he did not start in GW5 against Spurs having a slight knock. Until further news, I would suggest avoiding for now. If fit, doubling up on one CHE defender and Mendy could be a good strategy.

Chelsea ~ Odds of keeping Clean Sheets

I think at least one of the CHE defensive assets is a ‘must have’ for the GW8 WC teams as we can see the odds are saying it is very likely to keep CS in those fixtures.

Chelsea Attacking Assets

Romelu Lukaku (£11.6m)

Their standout performer in their attack is the record-breaking signing Romelu Lukaku (£11.6m). He scored 3 goals in 4 starts in the league this season. He also got the highest xG 2.4 and xA 1.2 in the team. With this Tuchel’s wingback system, I think Lukaku is the focal point of their attack and very likely to return points in this good run of fixtures. He’s currently owned by 31.6% of the managers which is going to rise in no time. Lukaku holds the top position in both Shots (15) and Shots on Target (5) in this Chelsea side. Lukaku will be one of the most popular captaincy options for GW7-GW11.

Mason Mount (£7.4m)

He could be an option if you want to go with a mid-priced Chelsea asset. He’s not been in the finest form recently but that could change very quickly. Everyone knows the quality he possesses and with Lukaku upfront, Mount will deliver some delicious balls no doubt. He also can be a replacement option for Diogo Jota. 

Shots 9 (3^rd best in the team)

nxG+xA 0.54 (3^rd best in the team)

Chelsea is the best option to target if you’re playing a wildcard in GW7/GW8. I think it’s not a bad idea to double or triple up on Chelsea in their consecutive easy run of fixtures. 

Manchester City

Man City Defensive assets to target in FPL GW8 Wildcard

João Cancelo (£6.0m)

• 2^nd highest touches in opp pen area
• 9.6% TSB
• Currently seem to be nailed (bold thing to say I KNOW)

Ruben Dias (£6.1m)

• Only nailed DEF, started all 5 games
• 27.2% TSB
• Bonus pts magnet

Man City ~ Odds of keeping Clean Sheets

Man City Attacking assets to target in FPL GW8 Wildcard

Jack Grealish (£8.0m)

• Started all 5 games
• 19.8% TSB
• Good value

Ferran Torres (£7.1m)

• Potential OOP (Out of position)
• 15.6% TSB
• Avoid if you don’t have good bench cover

Kevin De Bruyne is finally back from the injury but I think it’s better to wait for some time and see how he settles in. Phil Foden is back as well, he’s also a wait and see for me as there are speculations that Pep might play him as a CM.

Man City Odds of scoring 2.5 goals+

WOLVES

Wolves Defensive assets to target in your Wildcard team

Semedo (£4.9m)

• 3.7% TSB
• Attacking threat: very high

Marcal (£4.6m)

• 6.6% TSB
• Currently nailed, rotational chance with Ait Nouri in future

Raul Jimenez (£7.5m)

• 5.0%) TSB
• 1st in creativity index among all FWDs
• Out of form

Adama Traore (£6.0m)

• 4.3% TSB
• Good underlying stats
• In form but lack of returns
• Bad at finishing

There’s another player I want to mention from Wolves is Hee-Chan Hwang (£5.5m) [FWD]. He arrived recently and showed some excellent promise. He also scored a goal after coming in from sub against Watford. At this moment, I think he’s a wait and see but certainly on the watchlist.

Arsenal

• Ben White (£4.4m)
• Tomiyasu (£4.5m)
• Tierney (£4.9m)
• Ramsdale (£4.5m)

Arsenal Odds of keeping Clean Sheets

Defensively I think Arsenal can be trusted for these games and the odds are also on their side.

However, I wouldn’t consider their attacking players just yet. But Saka, Emile Smith Rowe & Ødegaard are on the watchlist for their cheap price tag.

Southampton

• Livramento (£4.2m)
• Armstrong (£6.0m)

SOU offers some good budget options for to think about. Especially, Livramento’s been playing impressively so far and I think if you still don’t own him, you really should bring him in your WC team.

LEEDS

• Raphinha (£6.5m)
• Bamford (£8.0m)

Bielsa’s side have shown very poor defensive display this season so far. But, they’ve been very promising while attacking as always.

Good value options to consider if you’re wildcarding in FPL GW8

While playing a Wildcard, you’d probably need some good budget options for your team to shape up and especially in this season, there are so many good premiums to take. Here, I’ll try to suggest the best budget options around £6.5m.

• Benrahma (£6.5m) – WHU 
• Gray (£5.8m) –  EVE
• Sarr (£6.1m) – WAT
• Gallagher (£5.6m) – CRY
• Saint-Maximin (£6.7m) – NEW

These are the players to target if you’re playing your wildcard in GW8. However, if you’re planning to play your wildcard in GW12, the players to target will be different because it’s still a lot of time. In fact, so many things might change in the meantime. Hope I’ll be able to continue this series and help you to get the best possible WC team for GW12. Until then, adios!

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

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