FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 5 Deadline

The return of Ronaldo grabbed the headlines in GW4, as the Portuguese talisman scored a brace to help Manchester United register a massive victory over Newcastle. Apart from that, it was just another normal GW in FPL, with a healthy average of 57 points. FPL GW5 offers a challenge to managers as some of the key assets such as Antonio, DCL are either injured or suspended. This presents managers with an opportunity to look at some differential options, not just in forwards, but elsewhere too. In this blog, we take a look at some of the differential picks to consider in your FPL Teams.

PS: Ownership mentioned in the images are at the time of writing.

Before going further, do vote in this week’s FPL GW5 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by @AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a 100% record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW4. Stay tuned for the GW5 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 5 blogs.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<=10% TSB):

Reece James( £5.6) vs Spurs(A), TSB:7.6%

Truth be told, Chelsea badly missed the services of Reece James last weekend against Aston Villa. His replacement Callum Hudson Odoi struggled to offer much going forward and was caught out defensively time and again. James’ return from suspension therefore gives Chelsea an extra edge, if they didn’t have it already.

Chelsea take on Spurs in FPL GW5, a team that had flattered to deceive prior to GW4, but the wheels came off against Crystal Palace last time out. Overall this season, Spurs have an xG of 4.5, which is the eighth worst in the league. Furthermore, Nuno’s men have created just 3 big chances, only Watford(1) have a worse tally than them. Add to that numerous injury concerns, including that of Son(potentially), Spurs’ chances of picking up a result against the European Champions look bleak.

Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their matches(14/23) under Thomas Tuchel, the best for any manager in the history of the league(minimum 10 games). The already impregnable defense becomes even better against the bigger clubs.

Opponent	No of Matches	Goals conceded
Real Madrid	2	1
Atletico Madrid	2	0
Manchester City	3	1
Manchester United	1	0
Arsenal	2	1
Spurs	1	0

So in a sum total of 11 such matches, the blues have conceded a mere 3 goals. Meanwhile, Spurs are averaging just 9.5 shots per game so far this season, the second worst in the league. Chelsea’s chances of keeping a clean sheet is therefore high!

Last time out

The last tine Chelsea visited North London, Reece James was the star of the show, the young fullback got himself a goal and an assist. Can he do it again and become only the third player in the club history to score away at both Arsenal and Spurs in the same season?

Further Read: Best forwards to replace Antonio and Calvert-Lewin | FPL Gameweek 5

Nelson Semedo( £ 4.9) vs Brentford(H), TSB:2.7%

It is still a myth as to how Nelson Semedo ended up with just 6 points last time out. The Portuguese fullback had two big chances against Watford, one of which was saved by the keeper and the other he inexplicably missed. He was also the key architect in the lead up to the second goal. All in all, what could have been a 20 pointer became a 6 pointer.

Wolves under their new manager are playing completely different football when compared with that played by Nuno. The Midlands side have registered 71 shots so far, the third best in the league. This, however, hasn’t affected their defense out. Semedo and co have an xGC of 4.2, the sixth best in the league.

Average Statistic per 90 mins	Semedo (19-20)	Semedo (20-21)
Goals	0.03	0
Expected Goals	0.04	0.27
Shots	0.69	1.67
Shots on Target	0.33	0.33
Shots in Box	0.27	1
Goal Assists	0.03	0
Expected Assists	0.03	0.04
Attempted Assists	0.63	1
Big Chance Created	0	0
Crosses	0.36	0

As we can see from the above table, Semedo has been far more progressive this season when compared with previous season. A Big haul is definitely on the horizon!

Wolves’ FPL GW5 opponents Brentford have had a solid start to the season. The Bees have taken 5 points from 4 games and have scored 3 goals in the process. The newly promoted club has an xG of 3.8, only Watford, Leicester and Norwich have a worse tally. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Wolves keep a clean sheet this weekend

Pro Tip: Wolves have some amazing fixtures all the way up till GW14, as a result of which now is the perfect time to bring one of their assets in and we feel that Semedo has the highest potential.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Guide To Post Wildcard Strategy | Life After Playing Wildcard

Teemu Pukki(£5.9) vs Watford(H), TSB:5.4%

Next in line in our differentials for FPL GW5 is Teemu Pukki. Remember him? The man who went off to a flyer in the 2019-20 season, has rather had a quiet start this time around. This, however, has a lot to do with the fixtures Norwich have had in the first 4 weeks. The Canaries played against 4 out of last season’s top 8 in the first 4 matches. However, their fixtures take a turn from GW5 onwards and Pukki therefore is definitely worth considering.

Despite having a tough run of games Pukki has done well in terms of getting himself in goal scoring positions.

The above image indicates that Pukki has the highest xG/ shot among top players. This suggests that most of the chances he gets are good goal scoring opportunities, from which he has scored 1 goal so far. With the improvement in fixtures, the number of chances he gets is only going to go up. We believe that Pukki party might be about to start again!

Further Read: FPL GW5 Guide To Post Wildcard Strategy | Life After Playing Wildcard

Nicolas Pepe(£7.2) vs Burnley(A), TSB:1.5%

Arsenal registered their first win of the season last week, against Norwich. Nicolas Pepe provided the assist for Aubameyang’s winning goal. In the lead up to the goal, Pepe hit the woodwork twice before he inadvertently teed up the Arsenal captain to score. The Gunners have a very good run of games coming up and Pepe could be the cheapest, yet, best route into the Arsenal attack.

Total Statistic	Nicolas Pépé
Goals	0
Expected Goals	1.36
Shots	11
Shots on Target	3
Shots in Box	7
Goal Assists	1
Expected Assists	1.19
Attempted Assists	8
Big Chance Created	1
Crosses	1

Pepe leads the charts among Arsenal players for number of shots, big chances created, shots on target, xG, xA, big chances and shots in the box. It is safe to say that he has been the best player for Mikel Arteta’s men so far this season. The Ivorian has just carried on from where he left off last season in terms of performances. It is only a matter of time before the performances start translating into FPL points.

Arsenal’s opponents Burnley seem to have a blatant weakness down the left side of their defense. 7 out of the 8 goals the Clarets have conceded have been from the left hand side of their defense. It goes without saying that Nicolas Pepe will play down the right for Arsenal, meaning he is next in line to torment the left side of Sean Dyche’s men’s backline.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Guide To Post Wildcard Strategy | Life After Playing Wildcard

Allan Saint-Maximin(£6.5) vs Leeds(H), TSB:6.9%

Saint-Maximin has had a very productive start to the season, he has registered 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 matches. But, most importantly he has played 90 minutes in all 4 matches, not sustaining any injuries, quite surprisingly. The Newcastle forward has created 2 big chances this season, only 6 players have created more.

The Magpies go head to head against Leeds this week, a team that boasts the second worst defensive record in terms of goals conceded. Ironically Leeds’ 11 goals given away tally is better than only that of Newcastle’s. Meanwhile, only Arsenal(13) and Newcastle(16) have leaked more big chances than Leeds(12).

Stat Attack

• Leeds have faced 28 shots on target so far this season, the highest tally in the league. Their average of 7 shots on target conceded per game is the highest as per records post 2003-04.
• Leeds have alternated between wins and loses on Friday night away matches in the league. Last time out, they beat Fulham 2-1. Will ASM and co ensure the pattern continues??
• For the first time in his Premier League career, Allan Saint-Maximim has played 4 straight 90 minutes. Long may it continue.

Given the fact that both teams have poor defensive records, this fixture may well end up being a high scoring one.

Further Read: Best forwards to replace Antonio and Calvert-Lewin | FPL Gameweek 5

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW5(<1% TSB):

Andros Townsend(£5.4) vs Aston Villa(A), TSB:0.8%

Andros Townsend was the unlikely hero for Everton last time out as he collected an assist and a wonder goal to seal a 3-1 victory over Burnley. Overall this campaign, the winger has 2 assists and 1 goal. Rafa Benitez seems to have brought the best out of Townsend once again.

Aston Villa have shown a weakness down the left side of their backline. 5 out of the 7 goals that Dean Smith’s men have given away have been from that side. As we all know, Townsend operates from the right flank, which increases his prospects all the more.

Pro Tip: Everton have given us managers a big headache as to who we pick out of the likes of Gray, Doucoure and Townsend. All three of them are similarly priced and all three of them are giving us returns. Our suggestion would be to take at least 2 of them, Townsend and Gray would be our first choice. Having said that having all 3 of them for the next few weeks wouldn’t be a bad option either!

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 5:

FPL GW5 Guide To Post Wildcard Strategy | Life After Playing Wildcard
Best forwards to replace Antonio and Calvert-Lewin | FPL Gameweek 5
FPL GW4 Sunday Stats Review | Leeds vs Liverpool

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 5?

We’ll be covering fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 5, differential picks, GW 5 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek five, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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