The Premier League season has been off to a scintillating start with the heavyweights Bruno Fernandes and Salah returning big points. If you don’t own either of them & have fallen behind, don’t lose hope as there are 37 weeks to go. Trying out a punt or two should always help you catch rank or increase the lead in your mini-league. In this blog, we will cover the differential picks(<10% TSB) & one ultra-differential pick(<1% TSB) for FPL GW2.
PS: Said Benrahma is not included in the Differentials list as he has crossed 10% ownership at the time of writing.
FPL GW2 Differential Picks(<=10% TSB) :
Mason Greenwood vs Southampton(A), TSB: 9.2%
Mason Greenwood is another one of those players who ended the 2020-21 Premier League campaign on fire. The youngster netted 6 goals & 1 assist in his last 9 matches. Greenwood did have good run in the off-season- Played most minutes for any Manchester United first-team outfielder. He did have a great start this season too for an impressive 8 points against Leeds with 3 shots, xG- 0.31, xA- 0.47.
Greenwood is up against a Southampton side who conceded 23 big chances(2nd highest) and conceded 17 goals(3rd most) towards the end of last season(GW30- GW38). The transfer of Vestergaard and Bertrand to Leicester also hasn’t helped things as they cleared lacked experience at the back as they conceded 14 shots and 3 big chances against Everton in GW1. The main problem in Southampton’s backline lies on the left side with as pointed in our ‘Eye Test Review‘ and Greenwood should take full advantage as he drifts towards the right even if he starts as a center forward.
Further Read: FPL GW2 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed in GW1
De Bruyne vs Norwich(H), TSB: 2.8%
PS: Article was written before Pep’s press conference. Pep Guardiola has confirmed Kevin De Bruyne could not train today. Pep: “We’ll see tomorrow if he is able to play.” Kevin [De Bruyne] still has a little problem with his ankle so we will see. Gundogan trained today but we will see ahead of Sunday.”
Manchester City did not have the best of the starts to the Premier League season losing 1-0 to Tottenham. KDB did not start the game due to injury and came on as a substitute to play just 11 minutes. He even registered a shot on target in those 11 minutes. Getting KDB early in your team has a huge upside with the majority of managers opting for other Premium midfielders- Fernandes(57.4%), Salah(56.1%), and Son(23.4%). Even though Pep has confirmed that De Bruyne still needs time to play full 90 minutes, he could be a great differential pick even if he plays 60-70 minutes.
Key Stat:
The last time De Bruyne played Norwich City was in GW38+ of 2019/20 season, he got 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 bonus points to fetch a total of 19 points & City won 5-0.
De Bruyne in numbers:
- 45% Goal scoring Odds for GW2 as per DraftHound(5th highest among midfielders).
- Top of the list for anytime returns(76%) in GW2 as per FFHUB Points Prediction tool.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 2 Expert Panel Team Reveals, Strategies, Captaincy, And Tips
Callum Wilson vs Aston Villa(A), TSB: 7.3%
Callum Wilson has always been the under-rated mid priced forward in FPL over the years and the gone under the radar this season too. He had returned 5.78 FPL points per 90 minutes last season which is better than his counterparts- Dominic Calvert Lewin(12.9%), Antonio(28.1%) and Bamford(16.6%). But Wilson is just owned by just 7.3% managers which works well for him as FPL GW2 Differential pick. He usually starts his seasons really well and got into the groove this season too with 3 shots inside the box, 1 big chance and a goal against West Ham in GW1.
Callum Wilson’s impressive form at the start of the seasons(GW1- GW7):
| Metric/Year | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 |
| Points | 35 | 46 | 53 |
| Points/Game | 5.0 | 6.57 | 7.57 |
| Goal Contributions(Goals+ Assists) | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Goal Involvement(%) | 58% | 62% | 80% |
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 2 Analysis- Players to Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead of FPL GW2
Zaha vs Brentford(H), TSB: 6.6%
One more year has passed by with Zaha wanting to move out of the club during the summer window and Palace holding on to him. Zaha should be the talisman for Palace for another season to ensure them to safety and beyond. Zaha particularly has a stellar record against smaller teams which is indicated by 5 goals, 4 assists, 58 points from 7 games averaging 8.28 points/game last season against smaller teams– Newcastle, Burnley, WBA, Fulham. Zaha also has a liking for promoted teams as he smashed 3 goals, 4 assists, 42 points averaging 10.5 FPL points/game last season against promoted teams.
Zaha against Promoted teams record(Last season):
- GW8 vs Leeds- 1 assist, 5 points
- GW6 vs Fulham- 1 goal, 1 assist, 13 points
- GW11 vs West Brom- 2 goals, 1 assist, 18 points
- GW28 vs West Brom- 1 assist, 6 points
Numbers game:
- Brentford conceded the most shots(22), most shots inside the box(13) in GW1 despite keeping a clean sheet. This can be further put up by Arsenal lacking a proper finisher.
- Brentford conceded 56% of their chances in GW1 against Arsenal on the left compared to just 11% on the right and Zaha would love that!
The fixtures going forward are difficult for Zaha, but he is a great one-week punt and maybe beyond too.
Further Read: FPL GW2 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Cancelo vs Norwich City(H), TSB: 7.3%
Even though City didn’t perform well in GW1, Cancelo did catch the eye with his attacking ability as always. Cancelo had 4 touches(2nd highest among defenders) in the opposition penalty box, 12 entries in the final third(3rd highest among defenders) in GW1. On top of it, he had 3 shots, created 1 big chance and made 3 key passes with an xA of 0.50 and was unlucky not to get a attacking return. Cancelo matched Mahrez in terms of attacking positions and stats if not better. The only doubt with Cancelo is that he may lose his RB place to Walker, but could possibly start at LB after Mendy’s dismal performance.
Cancelo vs Mahrez attacking numbers comparison:
| Player/Metric | Mahrez | Cancelo |
| Shots | 2 | 3 |
| Big chances | 1 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box | 1 | 1 |
| xG+xA | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| Big chances created | 0 | 1 |
| Key Passes | 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goal Involvement | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Cancelo in numbers:
- 17% Goal scoring odds for GW2 as per DraftHound(Highest among defenders).
- 74% chances of anytime returns(3rd highest) in GW2 as per FFHUB Points Prediction Tool.
- 1 big chance created and 3 key passes vs Spurs in GW1.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 2: Three Fixtures to target for FPL Points
Ultra-Differential Pick(<1% TSB) for FPL GW2:
Doucoure vs Leeds United(A), TSB: 0.8%
While it is too early too call upon and decide the best budget midfield(5.5) option, Doucoure looks to offer the best value at the moment after his performance against Southampton- 2 shots inside the box and one goal getting 8 points. It looked like the we could see the ‘Watford Doucoure‘ more this season after being offered the box to box role under Rafa this season. He looked to be the third man getting to the edge of the box after DCL and Richarlison for those crosses and attacking threat.
Doucoure on his change in role before the start of the season-
“Last season, I had a deeper role, more defensive than at Watford. I had the same skills but needed to adapt. “This season, I think I am going to be more forward and attacking. The manager wants me to be more offensive.”
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His change in role is evident from the image above. This could be the season where Doucoure racks up at least 10 goal contributions which is a great return for your 5.5 midfielder in FPL.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 2:
FPL Gameweek 2 Matchups – A Splattering of GW1 Impressions
FPL Gameweek 2 Expert Panel Team Reveals, Strategies, Captaincy, And Tips
FPL GW2 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed in GW1
Gameweek 1: Fantasy Premier League Detailed Review
FPL Gameweek 2 Analysis- Players to Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead of FPL GW2
FPL GW2 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
FPL GW1 Scout Notes: Southampton, Barnes, Norwich Under the Lens
FPL Gameweek 2: Three Fixtures to target for FPL Points
Also check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.
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Srinivasan S
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