After a long summer which had a lot of Footballing action, we are back with the Premier League and with that, we are also back with the Captaincy Model “Double or Nothing”. We will analyze various key statistics and draw up a fair conclusion to give you the best FPL GW 1 captaincy option for the week.
FPL GW 1 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”8″]
First Gameweek of the season and there’s a massive bandwagon already. Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah leads the polls by a staggering 83.07% of your votes. Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes is second behind the Egyptian at 7.37% of the votes. Salah’s teammate Sadio Mane comes in third with 2.19% votes.
Kai Havertz, who scored the goal that won Chelsea the Champions League, comes in fourth with just 1.59% of the votes. The new and most surprising signing of the window, Danny Ings (1.2%) rounds up our Captaincy candidates for the inaugural Gameweek of the 2021/22 season.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 23 | 15 | 7 | 3.54 | 5.26 | 1 |
| Mane | 14 | 15 | 5 | 2.74 | 3.20 | 3 |
| Havertz | 13 | 4 | 9 | 3.43 | 2.61 | 2 |
| Bruno | 13 | 8 | 2 | 2.62 | 1.99 | 4 |
| Ings | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1.19 | 1.47 | 5 |
Mohammed Salah comes out on top for the first gameweek. Salah leads the way with a total of 23 Shots Inside the Box and was afforded 7 Big Chances. The xG of 3.54, however, seems low for the underlying stats being posted, which would mean he was getting low-quality chances mostly.
Kai Havertz comes in behind Salah, although he only had 13 Shots Inside the Box, 9 of those were Big Chances, which boosted his xG to 3.43, barely getting beaten by the leader. Sadio Mane comes in third, with 14 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances, and an xG of 2.74.
Bruno Fernandes comes in 4th. Even though he managed to take 13 Shots Inside the Box, only 2 of them were Big Chances, giving him an xG of 2.62.
Danny Ings finishes up the list with a mere 8 Shots Inside the Box, 1 Big Chance, and an xG of just 1.19, although we should take these stats with a pinch of salt, now that he’s signed for a much team that has a much better attack on paper.
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 84 | 24 | 13.22 | 1 |
| Liverpool (Mane) | 84 | 24 | 13.22 | 1 |
| Chelsea (Havertz) | 66 | 19 | 13.24 | 3 |
| Manchester United (Bruno) | 47 | 10 | 8.15 | 4 |
| Aston Villa (Ings) | 50 | 8 | 6.54 | 5 |
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 6 games. A total of 84 Shots Inside the Box and 24 Big Chances in Total, helps in boosting their xG at 13.22.
Chelsea come in behind Liverpool. With 66 Shots Inside the Box and 19 Big Chances in Total. The Champions League winners actually edge Liverpool in terms of xG (13.24).
Manchester United were some way off the leaders at the end of last season with just 47 Shots Inside the Box, 10 Big Chances and xG of 8.15 in the last 6 matches of the previous season. However, it’s important to note that they had tough fixtures at the end and start the new season with favorable fixtures.
Even though Aston Villa had more Shots Inside the Box (50) than Manchester United at the end of last season, they managed to create only 8 Big Chances, resulting in an xG of 6.54.
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW 1
| (C)andidate | Drafthound Clean Sheet Odds | Drafthound Odds of Conceding >2.5 Goals | Safety Rank | Explosion Rank | Average Factor of Safety Rank and Explosion Rank | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Norwich (vs Salah) | 9% | 50% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Norwich (vs Mane) | 9% | 50% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace (vs Havertz) | 11% | 42% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Leeds United (vs Bruno) | 14% | 37% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Watford (vs Ings) | 26% | 25% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
Since we do not have the data for newly promoted sides, and even if we did, they would be very unreliable because of the sheer difference in the quality of Championship and that of the Premier League, we have modified our approach for the start of the season.
We will use Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more
Norwich, who are facing Liverpool this week, have the weakest odds this week. CS odds of just 9% pretty much tells you that the bookies really fancy Liverpool to go out all guns blazing in this match. A staggering 50% chance of Norwich conceding more than 2.5 goals, only makes the matter worse for the newly-promoted side, at least on paper, as they are ridden with injuries and Covid-related issues.
Crystal Palace come in behind Norwich, with just 11% chance of keeping a CS. They are also not expected to keep Chelsea out a lot, with the bookies giving them a significant 42% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week.
Leeds United have also been given very low chances of returning a clean sheet. Being given only a 14% chance of keeping a CS, Leeds United are not far off Crystal Palace. Confidence in Leeds United seems to be low, having been given a 37% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals.
The newly-promoted Watford, have been handed a decent chance (26%) of keeping a clean sheet against a new-look but Grealish-less Aston Villa. Confidence in Watford seems to be high after a record-breaking defensive performance last season in the Championship, especially since January. For this reason, they have also been handed only a 25% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals.
Projections Rank
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 70% | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mane | 62% | 6.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Havertz | 50% | 5.4 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Bruno | 64% | 6.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Ings | 57% | 5.3 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 4 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
The popular week of the week, Mohammed Salah has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 70%, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 7.5, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes comes in behind the Egyptian, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 64% and Projected Points at 6.5.
Sadio Mane comes in third behind Bruno, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 62% and Projected Points at 6.2.
Kai Havertz and Danny Ings are both given an equal rank. Havertz just about beats Ings in the Explosion Factor, but gets beaten by Ings in the Safety Factor.
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL GW 1 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Projections Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Mane | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| Havertz | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Bruno | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| Ings | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
As highlighted in the Community Votes, it’s Mohammed Salah who clearly tops the Metric with a CRF of 4. It should be noted that this is the least CRF a candidate could ever have, and it’s the first time that this model has returned such value.
Sadio Mane comes in behind Salah with a CRF of 8, highlighting just how mismatched the two teams involved in this game are.
Kai Havertz finishes in the podium places with a CRF of 12, just about edging Bruno Fernandes (14). Danny Ings comes out to be a very weak candidate for captaincy, with a very-high CRF value of 19. However, again, I’d take his stats with a pinch of salt because of his move to Villa.
With that, I would like to wish our readers a bunch of points throughout the season, especially in the inaugural week. Green arrows all season for all of you (and me).
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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